美國股民有望迎來分紅旺季
????上周,,蘋果公司(Apple)公布了最新季報,,最令人驚訝的并不是它的業(yè)績再度遠(yuǎn)超華爾街預(yù)期。這家公司如日中天,,幾乎就被認(rèn)定了肯定會超預(yù)期——唯一的問題是超出幅度是多少,。相比之下,,更令人瞠目的是這家公司的賬簿上居然有高達(dá)976億美元的現(xiàn)金和可售證券。近幾年來,,我們已經(jīng)看到了不少報道稱美國公司資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表上的閑置資金正在不斷累積,,但這次的情況完全不同,。當(dāng)然,,蘋果公司的股東們這些年來確實沒有多少可以抱怨的——過去五年該股漲了424%,同期標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)(S&P500)卻下跌了7.4%,。但拜托,,蘋果公司。如果你想不出怎么花這些錢,,還是把它還給其真正的主人吧,,你又不是對沖基金。 ????別忘了,,并不是只有蘋果公司看上去不知該如何使用近年來積攢下來的大筆現(xiàn)金,。高盛(Goldman Sachs)1月24日發(fā)布的報告顯示,過去四年,,高盛跟蹤的非金融公司手頭現(xiàn)金總額增加了55%,,現(xiàn)金/企業(yè)價值比率從6%上升到了10%。很多現(xiàn)金都待在海外賬戶中,,因為這些公司都在耐心地等待,,希望終有一天美國國會將批準(zhǔn)減免對海外收益的征稅。(祝他們好運吧?。?/p> ????好消息是,,高盛認(rèn)為,一個對“股東更友好”的時代已經(jīng)來臨,,由于高管們不敢在充滿變數(shù)的經(jīng)濟環(huán)境中貿(mào)然投資,,他們終于要開始派發(fā)公司坐擁的大堆現(xiàn)金了。僅2012年一年,,高盛跟蹤的這些公司看來已準(zhǔn)備將多達(dá)37%的現(xiàn)金用于派息和股票回購,,比2002-2010年間的平均水平高出約5個百分點。 ????所有這些意味著如果你知道如何選股,,就有機會賺上一筆,。 ????股票回購。2011年,,美國上市公司的董事會共核準(zhǔn)了約5,300億美元的股票回購,,比2011年高出了45%,是2009年低點的6倍,。雖然高盛承認(rèn),,回購并不總是個股走勢強于大盤的可靠指標(biāo),,2009年3月以來有新回購計劃的股票在宣布回購前后,股價走勢確實強于標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾指數(shù),。而且,,我們說的這些計劃可不是小數(shù)目:2011年,華特迪士尼(Walt Disney)宣布了160億美元的回購計劃,,摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)是150億美元,,沃爾瑪(Wal-Mart)也是150億美元。高盛還列出了幾家可能很快會宣布或擴大回購計劃的公司,,包括eBay,、輝瑞(Pfizer)和高通(Qualcomm),以及還有大部分回購計劃尚未完成的公司,,如維亞康姆(Viacom),、Saks百貨公司、Abercrombie & Fitch服飾公司和IAC/InterActive Corp媒體公司,。 ????下面是我看好的公司名單,。既然回購計劃看來有望支撐公司股價,股民或許可以考慮出售這些公司的看跌期權(quán),,落袋為安,。因為如果未來股價不下跌,期權(quán)價格就會下跌,,等到期權(quán)到期時,,你能拿到的錢少得可憐,什么也干不了,。不能說萬無一失,,但如果公司方面沒有什么特別糟糕的利空,如果大盤沒有暴跌,,這差不多就像是天上掉餡餅,。幾家候選公司是:有線電視公司Cablevision、哈里伯頓(Halliburton)和美國鷹牌服飾公司(American Eagle Outfitters),。 |
????When Apple announced its latest quarterly earnings last week, the most amazing thing wasn't that it once again blew away Wall Street's expectations. This company is on a roll of unprecedented proportions, and it's almost assumed that it will exceed expectations -- the only question is by how much. What was far more profound was the revelation of the hoard of $97.6 billion in cash and marketable securities on the company's books. We've been reading for a few years now about corporate America's growing pile of idle balance sheet cash, but this is something else entirely. Apple shareholders don't really have much to complain about these days -- the stock is up 424% over the past five years, compared to a 7.4% decline in the S&P500. But come on, Cupertino. If you can't think of ways to use the money, give it back to its rightful owners. You're not a hedge fund. ????Apple (AAPL), mind you, is not alone in its seeming inability to put the cash it has generated of late to work. According to a January 24 report from Goldman Sachs (GS), non-financial companies the investment bank follows have seen gross cash balances rise by 55% over the past four years, and the ratio of total cash to enterprise value rise from 6% to 10%. Much of that sits in overseas accounts as companies patiently hope for a day when Congress agrees to pass a tax holiday on foreign income. (Good luck with that.) ????But here's the good news: Goldman thinks a more "shareholder friendly" moment is upon us, and that corporate executives are finally going to start doling out the money pile they've been sitting on due to their abject fear of investing in an uncertain economic climate. Companies they follow seem ready to direct a whopping 37% of their cash to dividends and share buybacks alone in the coming year, roughly 500 basis points higher than the average from 2002 to 2010. ????All of this means there's some good money to be made if you know how to pick your spots. ????Stock buybacks. In 2011, some $530 billion of buybacks were authorized by corporate boards, 45% higher than in 2010, and a five-fold increase from the 2009 low. While Goldman admits that buybacks are not always a reliable indicator of stock outperformance, since March 2009, stocks with new repurchase agreements have outperformed the S&P around the announcement of the buybacks. And we're not talking about small numbers, either: In 2011, Walt Disney (DIS) announced a $16 billion buyback, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) a $15 billion one, and Wal-Mart (WMT) another $15 billion. Goldman identifies a handful of companies they think might soon announce or expand repurchase programs, including eBay (EBAY), Pfizer (PFE), and Qualcomm (QCOM). They add another list of companies with big chunks of buybacks yet to be completed, including Viacom (VIA), Saks (SKS), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), and IAC/InterActive Corp (IACI). ????Here's my favorite list, though. They compiled a list of companies for which you might consider selling put options because a buyback looks likely to support the company's shares. You pocket the price of the option, and provided the stock doesn't fall and is "put" back to you, you walk away at the option's expiry with a few bucks for pretty much doing nothing at all. No guarantees here, folks, but this is as close to a free lunch as you can get, barring some disastrous news out of a company or a collapse in the overall stock market. A few candidates: Cablevision, Halliburton, and American Eagle Outfitters. |