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巴菲特信徒須提防標(biāo)題黨

巴菲特信徒須提防標(biāo)題黨

Carol Loomis 2012-02-28
在伯克希爾哈撒韋,,沃倫?巴菲特依然承擔(dān)著大部分的投資組合管理工作,,但媒體往往會將他的投資決策和托德?康布斯,、泰德?韋斯切勒等伯克希爾哈撒韋的投資經(jīng)理們的決策混為一談,。

????第二項(xiàng)金融投資是50億美元購入美國銀行(Bank of America)優(yōu)先股,,附帶期權(quán)允許伯克希爾在2021年9月2日前以每股7.14美元的價(jià)格購買7億股普通股,。美國銀行當(dāng)前股價(jià)約8美元/股,。巴菲特對這項(xiàng)投資的評價(jià)是“我們的期權(quán)在到期前有望達(dá)到極高的價(jià)值”。

????至于第三項(xiàng)投資,,巴菲特能說的只有抱歉,。在公開信中,他承認(rèn)幾年前自己投資約20億美元,,買入公用事業(yè)公司Energy Future Holdings(在被KKR等私有化前,,前身是TXU)的幾只高收益率債券,完全是個錯誤,。假如這幾年天然氣價(jià)格上漲,,EFH有機(jī)會在火電廠項(xiàng)目上大賺一筆,,投資它的債券也會不賴。但事實(shí)上,,氣價(jià)急劇下降,,EFH也陷入了財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)。

????伯克希爾2010年將EFH投資減記10億美元,,2011年再次減記3.90億美元,。巴菲特并不諱言自己在這項(xiàng)投資上判斷失誤:“不管事情最終將怎樣變化,我當(dāng)初買入債券時(shí)完全算錯了盈虧概率,。用網(wǎng)球比賽的行話來說,,這是我作為董事長犯下的一個非受迫性失誤?!?/p>

????本文作者是《財(cái)富》雜志的資深特約編輯卡羅爾?盧米斯,,她是沃倫?巴菲特的老朋友,也是伯克希爾哈撒韋的股東,。她已經(jīng)連續(xù)35年義務(wù)擔(dān)任沃倫?巴菲特致股東公開信的編輯,。

????A second financial investment was $5 billion of preferred stock in Bank of America (BAC) that came with warrants allowing Berkshire to buy 700 million common shares at $7.14 per share anytime before September 2, 2021. Bank of America stock is currently selling at about $8 per share. Says Buffett of this investment: "Our warrants will likely be of great value before they expire."

????Of the third Berkshire investment, Buffett has absolutely nothing good to say. In his letter, he concedes that he completely blew things a few years ago by putting around $2 billion into several high-yield bond issues of utility operation Energy Future Holdings (which in its former life, before it was taken private by KKR and others, was called TXU). Had the price of natural gas risen and given EFH an opportunity to make good money off its coal-burning plants, the company's bonds would have been golden. Instead, the price of natural gas has nosedived and turned EFH into a financial disaster.

????Berkshire wrote down its EFH investment by $1 billion in 2010 and by another $390 million in 2011. Buffett is blunt in assessing his judgment in this matter: "However things turn out, I totally miscalculated the gain/loss probabilities when I purchased the bonds. In tennis parlance, this was a major unforced error by your chairman."

????The writer of this article, FORTUNE senior editor-at-large Carol Loomis, is a longtime friend of Warren Buffett's and a shareholder of Berkshire Hathaway. She has been the pro bono editor of Buffett's annual letter to shareholders for 35 years.

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