????近幾個(gè)季度,，美國(guó)企業(yè)界利潤(rùn)大幅攀升,，但這種好日子可能來(lái)日無(wú)多了。周二美股盤(pán)后,，制造業(yè)巨頭美國(guó)鋁業(yè)（Alcoa）將率先拉開(kāi)一季報(bào)序幕,。分析師們預(yù)計(jì)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的總利潤(rùn)將顯著放緩，可能預(yù)示著市場(chǎng)拐點(diǎn)的到來(lái),。去年,，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的每股收益增幅介于8.4%-19.7%之間不等，但今年多重因素可能壓制利潤(rùn),。

????為了解哪里利潤(rùn)可能下跌,，敬請(qǐng)關(guān)注四大指標(biāo)：

蘋(píng)果指標(biāo)

????蘋(píng)果公司（Apple）或許只是標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的一家成分股公司，但近年來(lái),，它對(duì)該指數(shù)的影響已遠(yuǎn)超一家公司應(yīng)有的影響,。截至去年年底，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的總利潤(rùn)較上年增長(zhǎng)約6%,。如果剔除蘋(píng)果公司利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)116%因素,，總利潤(rùn)增幅將僅為3%。

????預(yù)計(jì)一季度標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的總利潤(rùn)將同比下降0.1%,。如果沒(méi)有蘋(píng)果公司亮麗的季報(bào),，結(jié)果會(huì)更糟。金融數(shù)據(jù)和軟件公司FactSet上周發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告預(yù)計(jì),，如果剔除蘋(píng)果,，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的總利潤(rùn)跌幅將更深，達(dá)到1.6%,。鑒于蘋(píng)果公司的盈利能力在科技業(yè)影響力日益重大,，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)科技公司利潤(rùn)預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)3.4%。如果剔除蘋(píng)果,，凈利潤(rùn)實(shí)際上將下跌4.7%,。蘋(píng)果公司定于4月24日盤(pán)后發(fā)布季報(bào)。

新興市場(chǎng)

????即便是在美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇乏力之時(shí),，美國(guó)一些最大的公司利潤(rùn)卻逆勢(shì)飆升,。這主要是因?yàn)槠髽I(yè)管理者削減了成本，裁減了人員,，同時(shí)也因?yàn)樗麄儗N(xiāo)售轉(zhuǎn)向了印度,、中國(guó)和巴西等地。

????自從2009年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退以來(lái),，發(fā)展中國(guó)家成了全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的主力,，而歐洲,、美國(guó)則仍在苦苦掙扎，努力從金融危機(jī)中謀求復(fù)蘇,。但新興市場(chǎng)增長(zhǎng)正在放緩的跡象可能會(huì)損害美國(guó)公司的盈利能力,。

????以美國(guó)最大的電解鋁生產(chǎn)商——美國(guó)鋁業(yè)（Alcoa）為例。華爾街預(yù)計(jì)由于中國(guó),、歐洲等關(guān)鍵市場(chǎng)的增長(zhǎng)放緩,，美國(guó)鋁業(yè)將公布虧損。事實(shí)上,，分析師們和策略師們將關(guān)注這家公司如何應(yīng)對(duì)電解鋁庫(kù)存過(guò)剩以及價(jià)格下跌問(wèn)題,，但正如商業(yè)網(wǎng)站Business Insider指出，他們同樣也關(guān)注著中國(guó)這個(gè)全球最大的電解鋁消費(fèi)國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景,。

燃料價(jià)格

????銷(xiāo)售可能強(qiáng)勁,，但從運(yùn)輸材料到維持工廠機(jī)器運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)所需的燃料價(jià)格上漲預(yù)計(jì)將拖累很多大公司的利潤(rùn)。

????今年年初,，布倫特原油的平均每周價(jià)格為118.86美元,，顯著高于上年同期的平均106.27美元。

????FactSet的高級(jí)盈利分析師約翰?巴特斯預(yù)計(jì),，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)中有104家公司的一季度銷(xiāo)售額將實(shí)現(xiàn)良性增長(zhǎng),，但凈利潤(rùn)會(huì)出現(xiàn)下降。剔除銀行和其他金融公司,，凈利潤(rùn)率預(yù)計(jì)將為8.4%,，是2010年第一季度以來(lái)最低水平。

????Corporate America has seen profits soar for the past several quarters, but the party may not last much longer. After markets close on Tuesday, manufacturing giant Alcoa will kick off a slew of earnings results for the first quarter. Analysts expect overall earnings in the S&P 500 to significantly slow, possibly signaling the beginning of a turning point in the market. Last year, earnings per share in the S&P 500 grew in the range of 8.4% to 19.7%, but several factors could crimp profits this year.

????To get a sense of where earnings might fall, watch for these four key indicators.

The Apple indicator

????Apple (AAPL) might only be one company in the S&P 500, but lately it's had far more influence on the index than any one company should. At the end of last year, overall earnings for S&P 500 rose about 6% compared to the previous year. If Apple's 116% profit surge was excluded, earnings would have risen only 3%.

????For the first quarter, overall earnings are expected to decline 0.1% compared with a year earlier. But it could be worse without another stellar quarter from Apple. According to a report by FactSet released last week, the S&P 500 could see a deeper 1.6% fall if Apple were excluded. Given that the company's profitability weighs heavier in the technology sector, earnings among the S&P 500 tech companies are forecast to grow 3.4%. Without Apple, earnings would actually fall by 4.7%. The tech company is scheduled to release its earnings after markets close on April 24.

Emerging markets

????Even as the U.S. struggles with a tepid recovery, America's biggest companies have seen profits soar. Not only is it largely because executives trimmed costs and laid off workers, but it's also because they've turned to places like India, China and Brazil for sales.

????Since the global recession of 2009, the developing world has largely driven growth across the globe while Europe and the U.S. struggle to recover from the financial crisis. But signs that growth in emerging markets is slowing will likely hurt profits at U.S. companies.

????Take Alcoa (AA) for instance. Wall Street expects the largest U.S. producer of aluminum to post a loss as the pace of growth slows in key markets like China and Europe. Indeed, analysts and strategists will be looking at how the company is coping with a glut of inventory and weaker prices, but, as Business Insider has pointed out, they'll also focus on the economic outlook of China – the world's biggest consumer of aluminum.

Fuel costs

????Sales may be robust, but paying higher fuel costs to do everything from transporting materials to running machines at factories is expected to erode profits at many big companies.

????The average weekly price for Brent oil was $118.86 at the beginning of this year – markedly higher than the average $106.27 recorded around the same period last year.

????FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters expects that 104 companies in the S&P will see healthy growth in sales during the first quarter, but also a decline in earnings. Excluding banks and other financial companies, net profit margins is expected to come in at 8.4%, the lowest since the first quarter of 2010.????