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美國科技股到底有沒有泡沫

美國科技股到底有沒有泡沫

Kevin Kelleher 2012-05-23
Facebook的上市是一場測試,,它考驗的是投資者們是否又掉入了非理性亢奮的泥淖里。同時它又不僅僅是一次測試,,它可能是一個火藥桶,,會占燃市場對科技股的熱情,誘發(fā)投資者對科技股進(jìn)行瘋狂投機(jī),,進(jìn)而催生出新一波渴望一夜暴富的創(chuàng)業(yè)公司,。

????沒過多久,,另一個更瘋狂的買主就誕生了。就在上周Facebook籌備上市的時候,,照片分享網(wǎng)站Pinterest獲得了由日本電子商務(wù)公司樂天(Rakuten)領(lǐng)投的1億美元融資,,使這個熱門社交網(wǎng)站的估值達(dá)到了15億美元。

????總之,,對于股市上的普通投資者來說,,現(xiàn)在并不存在任何規(guī)模的泡沫。容易受到各種全球性災(zāi)難影響的納斯達(dá)克也不會像科技泡沫時期一樣,,一夜蒸發(fā)掉四分之三的市值,。不過現(xiàn)在有些交易的確呈現(xiàn)出不理性的趨勢。但是,,目前在硅谷很少有金融人士在乎這種趨勢,,因此硅谷正在形成一種自我感覺良好的風(fēng)氣,越來越多的人把荒謬的東西看成是理智的,。

????作為一名記者,,我報導(dǎo)過日本的股市泡沫,也報導(dǎo)過“.com”泡沫,。作為一個業(yè)主,,我親身經(jīng)歷了房地產(chǎn)泡沫。據(jù)我所知,,如果一種上下顛倒的思潮成了主流,,那你就應(yīng)該擔(dān)心泡沫問題了。真正的泡沫是指大型市場上非理性投資的規(guī)模越來越大,。Facebook波瀾不驚的上市過程可能已經(jīng)抽走了科技股泡沫里的一些空氣,,但這并不意味著非理性投資已經(jīng)沒有了,。

????譯者:樸成奎

????It didn't take long for another buyer to get even crazier. Last week, as Facebook was readying for its offering, Japanese e-commerce company Rakuten led a $100 million stake in Pinterest in a deal valuing the hot social network at $1.5 billion.

????So no, there is no bubble on any scale that should concern everyday investors in the stock market. The Nasdaq is, barring any global calamities, not going to lose three-quarters of its value. But there is a growing trend of dealmaking that seems to leave logic locked outside the conference-room doors. And there are few financiers in Silicon Valley who seem to care, creating a complacent environment where the nonsensical is increasingly received as sensible.

????As a journalist, I covered the Japanese stock bubble and the dot-com bubble. As a homeowner, I lived through the housing bubble. And I know that, when a kind of upside-down thinking becomes commonplace, that's when you have to start worrying about a bubble. True bubbles are illogical investing scaled up to huge markets. Facebook's lackluster IPO may have sucked the air out of a tech-stock bubble. But that doesn't mean we've seen the end of irrational investing.

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