????須知在理論上,，只有當(dāng)今年的赤字大于去年，凱恩斯“刺激”政策才會(huì)有效,。保持龐大赤字不變或略降,，不會(huì)提供公眾期待的增長(zhǎng),。因此，2012年“六個(gè)敗家子”的支出必須要大大高于2011年的合計(jì)3700億美元缺口,。

????但連年的高額赤字早已讓這些國(guó)家背上了沉重的債務(wù),。他們的平均債務(wù)/GDP比率如今達(dá)到了93%，高于2004年的65%,。愛爾蘭,、意大利、葡萄牙和希臘都處于108%或更高,。2012年,，5000億美元的赤字將把該比率再提高8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)以上。

????很難理解為什么各國(guó)首腦們認(rèn)為他們的國(guó)家能承擔(dān)更加龐大的赤字,，背負(fù)更多的債務(wù)。市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)開始拒絕他們——可以看到,，德國(guó)和西班牙公債的收益率之差極大,，后者已接近毀滅性的7%。

????“市場(chǎng)不會(huì)允許這些國(guó)家繼續(xù)這樣大規(guī)模借錢,，”Carnegie Endowment的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家尤里?達(dá)杜什表示,，“削減赤字是實(shí)現(xiàn)恢復(fù)增長(zhǎng)的重要因素。這樣的政府支出是不可持續(xù)的,?！?/p>

????“刺激”和高赤字等于增長(zhǎng)，這些話已成老生常談,，普遍為人們所接受,。但事實(shí)可能并非如此，基于這類觀點(diǎn)的政策可能也只是黃粱一夢(mèng),，難以實(shí)現(xiàn)預(yù)期的效果,。

????譯者：早稻米

????It's important to realize that, in theory, Keynesian "stimulus" only works if the deficit this year is bigger than the one last year. Keeping a huge deficit constant, or shrinking it slightly, will not provide the jolt the growth crowd wants. Hence, spending by the Six Spenders for 2012 would have to far exceed the combined $370 billion shortfall for 2011.

????But the string of big deficits has already saddled those countries with heavy debt. Their average debt-to-GDP ratio is now 93%, versus 65% in 2004. Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Greece are all at 108% or more. A $500 billion deficit in 2012 would inflate that ratio by more than eight more percentage points.

????It's difficult to understand how the heads-of-state think that their nations can actually run even bigger deficits that will pile on even more debt. The markets are already turning against them -- witness the gigantic spread between rates on German and Spanish government bonds, with the latter approaching a disastrous 7%.

????"The markets will not allow these countries to continue borrowing on this scale," says Uri Dadush, an economist at the Carnegie Endowment. "Deficit reduction is an essential element to getting them to grow again. The size of their government sectors is proving unsustainable."

????It's become a widely accepted cliché that "stimulus" and big deficits equal growth. That's an illusion supporting policies that are pure delusion.