????科技領域增長緩慢的另一個大背景，是許多領域正在經(jīng)歷一系列的顛覆性變革,。比如云計算的興起，促使甲骨文等企業(yè)軟件巨頭必須重新思考自己的發(fā)展道路,。（甲骨文CEO拉里?埃里森多年以來一直抨擊云計算,，但他上周三也表示，自己正學著愛上它,。）五月思科股票下跌固然有歐洲的因素,，但還因為亞洲競爭對手（如華為）的興起給它造成了不小的威脅。因此最近在甲骨文與投資者的收益電話會議上，CEO埃里森在談及收益問題時顯得非常保守,。

????另外,，近年來風生水起的移動計算也在日益蠶食戴爾和惠普靠PC撐起的企業(yè)市場,。巴克萊資本（Barclays Capital）的一位分析師上周三表示,，蘋果（Apple）的iPad和iPhone可能會“用來執(zhí)行更多原本由PC完成的任務，延長PC的購買周期,，甚至徹底取代某些PC?！?/p>

????此外有些科技巨頭尚在困境中掙扎自救。比如惠普大量裁員,，戴爾試圖從PC銷售向IT服務方向轉型，思科正在努力尋找第二個增長點,。許多投資者沒有耐心去等著一家大公司扭虧為贏,，更不用說這家公司可能不斷釋放假信號,，或者他們的衰退根本是無法避免的,。

????因此盡管這些藍籌股的市盈率很低——惠普明年的市盈率是6，戴爾是5,，思科是8——但是投資者對這些大牌科技公司會扭虧為贏的美好愿景并不買賬,。科技板上有些一度最成功的股票,，現(xiàn)在成了華爾街最難出手的股票,，哪怕它們還能賺到錢，甚至還表現(xiàn)出穩(wěn)健增長的趨勢,。

????在上個十年里,，硅谷的藍籌股時代已經(jīng)成為歷史了，從炙手可熱變成了燙手山芋,，使得“績優(yōu)股”一下子變成了“績憂股”,。

????本文作者Kevin Kelleher常駐舊金山灣區(qū)。

????譯者：樸成奎

????That slower growth is coming at a time of disruptive change in many areas. Cloud computing is forcing enterprise-software giants like Oracle to rethink their old ways. (CEO Larry Ellison, after years of bashing the cloud, said Wednesday he's learning to love it.) Cisco's stock tumbled this month not just on concerns in Europe, but on the rise of Asian competitors like Huawei, which made its CEO sound rather defensive on its recent earnings call with investors.

????And mobile computing is eating away at the stronghold that PCs made by Dell and HP had in the corporate market for many years. A Barclays Capital analyst said Wednesday that Apple (AAPL) iPads and iPhones may be "used for more PC tasks, elongating buying cycles and replacing some PCs altogether."

????Then there are the turnarounds that some of these companies are stuck trying to pull off: HP's aggressive layoffs, Dell's push away from PC sales and into IT services, Cisco's effort to find a strong second act. Many investors lack the patience needed to stick with a big company's turnaround, and its inevitable setbacks and false signals.

????So despite the low PE's on blue-chip tech -- HP's is 6 for the next year, Dell's is 5, Cisco's is 8 -- investors just aren't buying the story that large-cap tech companies are turning themselves around. Some of the biggest success stories of the tech sector are now some of the hardest sells on Wall Street, even though they are profitable and showing modest if steady growth.

????The blue chips of Silicon Valley have gone, in the last decade, from the growth stocks everyone wanted to the value stocks few value investors would touch. And that makes these blue-chip stocks very blue indeed.

????Kevin Kelleher is a writer in the San Francisco Bay Area.