????銅價(jià)是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的晴雨表，它的走向反映了全球工業(yè)冷暖,。當(dāng)中國(guó)像打了興奮劑一樣處于飛速增長(zhǎng)階段時(shí),，銅就是體壯如牛的宇宙先生。中國(guó)咳嗽連連,，銅就顯露出肺炎的征兆,。看到銅價(jià)波動(dòng)和全球性機(jī)會(huì),，摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）計(jì)劃推出由實(shí)物銅擔(dān)保的一支ETF。

????美國(guó)用銅大戶Southwire和金屬交易對(duì)沖基金Red Kite已向美國(guó)證券交易委員會(huì)（SEC）投訴稱,，這支基金可能“通過(guò)吸納倫敦金屬交易所（London Metal Exchange）三分之一的庫(kù)存,，推升銅價(jià)、壓縮供應(yīng),?！彼麄儽硎荆@對(duì)市場(chǎng)的影響堪比住友（Sumimoto）銅交易丑聞,。當(dāng)年,，住友的銅交易員濱中泰男（人送綽號(hào)“銅先生”）吞下了全球5%的實(shí)物銅，人為保持高銅價(jià)，使得住友銀行（Sumimoto Bank）能獲利減持,，并對(duì)客戶的銅交易收取高額傭金,。

????投訴稱，摩根大通擬建的ETF將“人為提高整體銅價(jià)水平”,，“對(duì)美國(guó)和全球經(jīng)濟(jì)造成巨大破壞”,。監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)文件顯示，這只ETF可持有多達(dá)61,000公噸實(shí)物銅,。

????此案或許不會(huì)僅限于SEC層面——美國(guó)商品期貨交易委員會(huì)（CFTC）可能也想對(duì)銅交易進(jìn)行監(jiān)管,，哪怕只是作為其要求提高預(yù)算的一個(gè)借口。取決于SEC的裁定和用詞,，藉此政府或正式表態(tài)“投機(jī)造成價(jià)格波動(dòng)”,。有一點(diǎn)是確定無(wú)疑的：ETF需求并非常規(guī)的經(jīng)濟(jì)需求，而且與營(yíng)銷材料和監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)接受的定義相反,，ETF交易常常造成所依托投資工具的人為失衡,。

????ETF根據(jù)客戶指令進(jìn)行單位創(chuàng)建或贖回，交易員完全對(duì)價(jià)格不敏感,。一筆購(gòu)買銅ETF的大單可能造成交易員沖進(jìn)交易大廳,，買下所有能買到的實(shí)物銅。這種舉動(dòng)會(huì)攪動(dòng)市場(chǎng)嗎,？住友的一名交易員僅控制全球5%的銅就足以擾亂十年的市場(chǎng)價(jià)格,。上述投訴稱，摩根大通的新ETF可能累積倫敦金屬交易所持30%的銅,。它將造成該ETF在美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)（凈進(jìn)口國(guó)）買入銅,，打亂市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)。

????恰巧,，《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》（Wall Street Journal）最近也注意到了采礦設(shè)備制造商Joy Global在業(yè)績(jī)公告中預(yù)測(cè)銅價(jià)上漲,，因?yàn)椤爱?dāng)前庫(kù)存有很大一部分在中國(guó)被用于融資抵押”?？磥?lái),，世界上有不少銅“作為當(dāng)?shù)亟灰讍T和銀行的復(fù)雜融資交易的一部分，沒有進(jìn)入市場(chǎng),，而是留在了中國(guó)的倉(cāng)庫(kù)里”,。

????The price of copper is a global bellwether, signaling industrial health wherever it trades. When China was in its steroid-induced growth phase, copper was Mr. Universe. Then China coughed and copper caught the mother of all pneumonias. Seeing opportunity in volatility and global range, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) plans to launch an ETF backed by physical copper.

????Southwire, one of the largest copper consumers in the U.S., and metals trader Red Kite have filed a complaint with the SEC, claiming the fund will "inflate prices and squeeze supply by removing as much as a third of the London Metal Exchange's copper stocks." They say the effect on the markets will be comparable to the Sumimoto scandal when metals trader Yasuo Hamanaka (a/k/a "Mr. Copper") sucked up 5% of the world's physical copper and maintained artificially high price levels, enabling Sumimoto Bank to sell its positions profitably while also charging high commissions on customer copper trades.

????The complaint says the proposed ETF will "grossly and artificially inflate prices" and "wreak havoc on the US and global economy." Regulatory filings indicate the ETF could hold as much as 61,000 metric tons of physical copper.

????This may not remain an SEC case – the CFTC may want to oversee copper too, if only as an excuse to ask for a budget increase. Depending on how the Commission rules, and on the language they use, this could point to a formal government determination that speculation causes price volatility. One thing is certain: ETF demand is not normal economic demand and, contrary to the marketing materials and the definition accepted by the regulators, ETF trading often creates artificial imbalances in the underlying instruments.

????ETF units are created or liquidated to meet orders, making traders completely price-insensitive. A large order to buy a copper ETF causes a trader to dash out onto the floor and buy all the physical copper he can. Can this disrupt the markets? A Sumimoto trader's control of just 5% of the world's copper was enough to disrupt pricing in the marketplace for ten years. The complaint calculates the new ETF could stockpile as much as 30% of the copper held on the London Metals Exchange. This would cause the ETF to buy copper within the U.S. – a net importer – disrupting the flow of supply.

????Coincidentally, the Wall Street Journal recently noted an earnings release from mining equipment maker Joy Global (JOY), predicting higher prices for copper because "a substantial portion of the current inventory has been pledged as collateral for financing in China." It appears much of the world's copper is "off-market in Chinese warehouses as part of complex financing deals among local traders and banks."