????增速放緩——當(dāng)一個國家的主權(quán)債務(wù)/GDP比率超過90%時,，經(jīng)濟(jì)增速會受到很大影響,。我們預(yù)計市場將繼續(xù)向意大利收取較高的償債成本，中期內(nèi)10年期收益率不可能較當(dāng)前的6%水平有大幅下降。意大利GDP已連續(xù)三個季度負(fù)增長,，過去十年的GDP年均增長率為2%。我們預(yù)計2012年和2013年的意大利GDP增速將分別低于國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）預(yù)測的-1.8%和-0.3%,。

????龐大的到期債務(wù)——意大利未來12個月的債務(wù)展期安排非常激進(jìn),，2012年余下時間將到期的債務(wù)（本金+利息）相當(dāng)于GDP的70%；相比之下,，法國為49%,，西班牙45%，德國23%,。6月14日,，意大利發(fā)售3年期、7年期和8年期國債,，完成45億歐元的發(fā)行上限,。但3年期平均收益率為5.3%，顯著高于5月14日的3.91%,，1個月上漲36%,！如果歐盟官員沒有什么化解危機(jī)的“火箭炮”，我們預(yù)計年底前意大利仍需通過提高收益率的方式來完成國債發(fā)售,。

????大到不能倒,？——以現(xiàn)有救助機(jī)制，這個問題的答案毫無疑問是“是”,。如果考慮到意大利的債務(wù)余額以及來自歐洲央行(ECB)的新增2727億歐元借款（還沒有考慮困于主權(quán)債務(wù)敞口的意大利銀行可能發(fā)出的救助請求）,，歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金（EFSF）的剩余資金約2000億歐元和7月1日將生效的歐洲穩(wěn)定機(jī)制（ESM）（假定，特別是德國國會6月29日能批準(zhǔn)ESM）的5000億歐元資金加起來仍不足以救助意大利,，以及意大利違約對整個地區(qū)的影響,。 [EFSF擔(dān)保額度：德國29.07%；法國21.83%,；意大利19.18%,；西班牙12.75%]

????財政整合——意大利邁向財政整合的道路遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)談不上明確有序。貝盧斯科尼政府的腐敗和停滯不前是顯而易見的,，但馬里奧?蒙蒂的技術(shù)官員政府內(nèi)部的分歧也清晰可見,。舉例來說，蒙蒂曾向市場承諾要大幅削減財政,，但所有這些迄今仍未獲意大利國會批準(zhǔn),。下面是一組令人心生希望的承諾。6月15日,，意大利政府批準(zhǔn)了一個800億歐元的刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長方案,，包括出售國有資產(chǎn)和壓縮公共支出,。

????經(jīng)濟(jì)增速落后——采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)（PMI）調(diào)查是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的一個主要領(lǐng)先指標(biāo)。正如下面兩張圖所示,，制造業(yè)和服務(wù)業(yè)的PMI都顯著低于歐元區(qū)均值,，而且制造業(yè)PMI已連續(xù)10個月、服務(wù)業(yè)PMI已連續(xù)12個月低于分水嶺50,。50上方為擴(kuò)張,，下方為萎縮。

????Growth Slowing- When a country's sovereign debt load exceeds 90% of GDP, growth is dramatically impaired. We think the market will continue to punish Italy via higher servicing costs, and we do not expect the 10-year yield to dip materially below its current level of 6% over the intermediate term. Italy has already seen three consecutive quarters of negative GDP. Over the last 10 years on an annualized basis, GDP has averaged 2%. We see Italy undershooting IMF growth forecasts of -1.8% in 2012 and -0.3% in 2013.

????Debt Maturities High- Italy has an extremely aggressive debt schedule to roll over in the next 12 months. The remaining 2012 debt due (Principal + interest) = 70% of GDP. This compares to 49% for France; 45% for Spain; 23% for Germany in the remainder of 2012. On June 14th Italy sold its max target of €4.5 billion of 3-7-8 year bonds, however the 3-year averaged a yield of 5.3% vs 3.91% on May 14th, or a 36% premium in one month! We'd expect a similar trend of filling demand through higher yields into year-end should we not see any "bazooka" from Eurocrats.

????Too Big to Fail?- The answer to this question is unequivocally YES under the present bailout facilities. If we consider Italy's outstanding debt and tack on another €272.7 billion of borrowing from the ECB -- without even mentioning the potential bailout needs for Italian lenders crippled with sovereign holdings—it's apparent that the remaining funds of the EFSF (around €200 Billion) plus the €500 billion from the ESM that is expected to come online on July 1, 2012 (assuming, in particular that Germany's Parliament signs off on it on June 29th), is undercapitalized to handle an Italian bailout, and fallout across the region from the failure Italy. [EFSF guarantees: Germany 29.07%; France 21.83%; Italy 19.18%; Spain 12.75%]

????Fiscal Consolidation– Italy's path forward on fiscal consolidation has been anything but clear and orderly. The corruption and standstill of the Berlusconi government was obvious; yet the technocrat government of Mario Monti is also marked by disunion. For one, while Monti has promised the market big fiscal cuts, they've yet to all be ratified by the Italian Parliament. Below we present the web of promises. On June 15th the Italian government moved forward with a package worth €80 billion to spur economic growth, including selling states assets and reducing public spending.

????Underperforming Growth- A major leading indicator for growth is derived from PMI surveys. As the two charts below indicate, Manufacturing and Services PMIs are well under the Eurozone averages and have been under the 50 line that divides expansion (above) and contraction (below) for more than 10 and 12 straight months, respectively.