印度經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩卻成為跨國(guó)公司投資熱點(diǎn)
????印度是世界上增長(zhǎng)最快的經(jīng)濟(jì)體之一,。但奇怪的是,就在印度經(jīng)濟(jì)增速目前明顯放緩之際,可口可樂(lè)和宜家本周卻在該國(guó)消費(fèi)者身上豪賭數(shù)十億美元,。 ????在未來(lái)的幾年里,世界上最大的軟飲料生產(chǎn)商可口可樂(lè)及其在印度的合作伙伴將斥資50億美元,,擴(kuò)大銷(xiāo)售渠道并提高產(chǎn)能,,以滿(mǎn)足印度不斷增長(zhǎng)的市場(chǎng)需求。在此之前,,世界上最大的家具制造商宜家(Ikea)以19億美元的投資進(jìn)軍印度,。該公司預(yù)計(jì)在未來(lái)15至20年內(nèi)在印度開(kāi)設(shè)25家門(mén)店,。 ????的確,這些投資承諾可能會(huì)緩解印度政府決策者目前所面臨的壓力,,他們近來(lái)一直在設(shè)法提振不斷趨弱的外國(guó)投資者情緒,,因?yàn)橛《饶壳暗慕?jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)不再像以前那般迅猛了。在截至3月31日的財(cái)政年度里,,印度國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)同比增長(zhǎng)6.5%,,這樣的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速在近10年里最慢。諸如制造業(yè),、采礦業(yè)及農(nóng)業(yè)等部門(mén)的表現(xiàn)不佳,,從而使外界對(duì)印度經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生了新的憂(yōu)慮情緒。 ????此外,,這兩筆投資的到來(lái),,正值印度盧比兌美元匯率已大幅下滑。因此,,這使得一些在印度設(shè)有分支機(jī)構(gòu)的外資企業(yè)嚴(yán)重受挫,,因?yàn)樗麄儏R回本國(guó)的美元資金縮水了,而這致使他們的盈利下降,。 ????但可口可樂(lè)和宜家遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)沒(méi)有那么擔(dān)憂(yōu),。從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,印度的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模令各大跨國(guó)公司難以忽略,。其中有幾個(gè)原因:印度擁有12億人口,,是世界上第二人口大國(guó);其中產(chǎn)階層人數(shù)正迅速增長(zhǎng),;即使印度經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩至6.5%,,其經(jīng)濟(jì)看上去也仍然遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)好于許多發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家,因?yàn)闅W洲部分國(guó)家正在應(yīng)對(duì)目前繼續(xù)發(fā)酵著的債務(wù)危機(jī),,而美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速在過(guò)去10年里每年平均僅為1.6%左右,。 ????從更廣泛的角度來(lái)看,最近的這些投資證明印度擁有或許更為重要的吸引力:對(duì)公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)改革的響應(yīng),。 ????宜家之所以有可能進(jìn)入印度,,正是由于該國(guó)去年的一項(xiàng)政策變化。這項(xiàng)新政策允許跨國(guó)零售商100%全資持有其在印度開(kāi)設(shè)的企業(yè),。在此之前,,單一品牌零售商只能在與印度當(dāng)?shù)毓窘M成的合資企業(yè)中持有51%的股份。布魯金斯學(xué)會(huì)(Brookings Institution)駐孟買(mǎi)的非常駐高級(jí)研究員尤爾吉特?帕特爾(Urjit Patel)認(rèn)為,,這個(gè)變化相當(dāng)重要,,因?yàn)樗梢允褂《冗@個(gè)世界上最后一個(gè)規(guī)模浩大的消費(fèi)者市場(chǎng)向許多之前被拒之門(mén)外的大型跨國(guó)零售商開(kāi)放, ????可口可樂(lè)則是另一個(gè)例子,。這家世界上最大的軟飲料生產(chǎn)商在印度擁有一段跌宕起伏的歷史,。可口可樂(lè)最初于1955年開(kāi)始在印度銷(xiāo)售其產(chǎn)品,,但在1977年,,當(dāng)印度政府改變監(jiān)管法規(guī),轉(zhuǎn)而要求跨國(guó)公司與當(dāng)?shù)毓窘⒑腺Y公司,,并交出其產(chǎn)品的秘密配方時(shí),,可口可樂(lè)撤離了印度。在1993年印度實(shí)施經(jīng)濟(jì)自由化(其中包括改變相關(guān)法規(guī),,允許跨國(guó)公司在印度設(shè)有全資子公司)之后,,可口可樂(lè)重返印度。自那以后,,該公司一直都特別看好印度,,而且自返回印度以來(lái)已在那里投資了大約20億美元。 ????顯然,,推動(dòng)印度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)將不僅僅是該國(guó)不斷增長(zhǎng)的人口以及民眾不斷增加的收入,。對(duì)于許多跨國(guó)公司而言,印度的官僚政府以及變化莫測(cè)的市場(chǎng)法規(guī)使他們?cè)谟《鹊耐顿Y成為了一種賭博,?;裟犴f爾首席執(zhí)行官戴夫?柯特(Dave Cote,中文名:高德威)在今年1月訪問(wèn)《財(cái)富》雜志期間表示:“我沒(méi)有數(shù)學(xué)來(lái)支持這個(gè)觀點(diǎn),,但我一直覺(jué)得,,印度政府的官僚問(wèn)題每年使得GDP增速損失了三個(gè)百分點(diǎn),但我對(duì)印度很感興趣,?!?/p> |
????This week, Coca-Cola (KO) and Ikea bet billions of dollars on India's consumers – curiously enough, at a time when growth across one of the world's fastest-growing economies has markedly slowed. ????Over the next several years, Coca-Cola, the world's biggest soft drink maker, and its local partners will spend $5 billion to expand distribution and add capacity to meet rising demand. This follows a move by Ikea, the world's largest furniture maker, to enter India with a $1.9 billion investment. It expects to open 25 stores there over the next 15 to 20 years. ????Indeed, the commitments will probably take some pressures off of New Delhi policymakers, who've been trying to boost faltering foreign investor sentiment, as India's economy hasn't been growing as fast as it once did. For the fiscal year ended March 31, GDP grew 6.5%, the slowest pace in almost a decade. Sectors such as manufacturing, mining and agriculture did poorly, raising new concerns about the economy. ????The investments also come as India's currency, the rupee, has fallen sharply against the U.S. dollar. Consequently, this has frustrated some foreign businesses with units in India, since the money they repatriate in dollars is worth less and that puts a dent on earnings. ????But Coke and Ikea aren't nearly as dismayed. Looking long-term, India's economy is too hard for the biggest companies to ignore. A few reasons: With 1.2 billion people, India is the world's second-most populous country; a rapidly growing middle class; and even with slower growth at 6.5%, India's economy looks far better than much of the developed world as parts of Europe struggles with an ongoing debt crisis and the U.S. economy has grown at an average of about 1.6% over the past 10 years. ????More broadly, the latest investments illustrate what's perhaps a bigger draw: a response to open-market reforms. ????Ikea's entrance into India was made possible by a policy change last year that allows some retailers to own 100% of their Indian businesses. Before, single-brand retailers were allowed to own only 51% of a partnership with an Indian company. The change is significant, since it could open India, one of the last big consumer markets of the world, to many of the biggest retailers that were previously shut out, said Urjit Patel, a nonresident senior fellow at Brookings Institution based in Mumbai. ????Coke is another example. The world's largest soft drink maker has had a turbulent history in the country. It first began selling its products in India in 1955, but left in 1977 when government regulations changed and required company to have a local partner and hand over its secret ingredients. Coke returned in 1993 after India liberalized its economy, which included changing rules allowing for wholly owned subsidiaries. Since then, the company has been particularly bullish on India, having spent some $2 billion since it returned. ????Clearly what will drive India's growth won't just be its growing population and rising incomes. India's bureaucratic government and unpredictable market regulations have been a gamble for many companies. At a visit to Fortune in January, Honeywell CEO Dave Cote said: "I have no math to support this, but I have always felt that just government bureaucracy cost India three GDP points a year. And I am a fan of the country." |