????韋爾顯然是對(duì)的,。銀行不只是大到不能倒（這是公共政策問(wèn)題）,，而且是大到無(wú)法進(jìn)行有效的管理（這是盈利問(wèn)題）。我們應(yīng)該從對(duì)沖基金行業(yè)吸取教訓(xùn),。在這個(gè)行業(yè)里,，有很多最為成功的基金經(jīng)理向他們的投資者返還資金，因?yàn)樗麄兊幕鹨呀?jīng)大到難以駕馭,。各種類型的金融機(jī)構(gòu)都有一個(gè)最佳的規(guī)模,，而“倫敦鯨”的教訓(xùn)告訴我們，就連杰米?迪蒙的管理能力都有個(gè)限度,。布蘭克費(fèi)恩和韋爾在前,，迪蒙等人是否會(huì)跟進(jìn)？我們希望銀行業(yè)能夠出現(xiàn)新的架構(gòu),。

????韋爾指出,，公眾對(duì)金融機(jī)構(gòu)缺乏信任，這是贊成將存款業(yè)務(wù)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù)分離的有力論據(jù),。沃克爾規(guī)則（Volcker Rule）的執(zhí)行情況將極其混亂,，聰明的銀行家將會(huì)提早劃清界限。少數(shù)記性好的華爾街高管常常是最成功的,。這不應(yīng)該和銀行家們對(duì)自身名譽(yù)的擔(dān)心相混淆,。銀行高管們意識(shí)到，他們的行業(yè)周期與公眾的喜好和厭惡息息相關(guān),，必須跟上公眾情緒的變化,，這樣才能保持流動(dòng)性,。勞埃德?布蘭克費(fèi)恩或許會(huì)對(duì)自己被稱為“一只纏繞在人臉上的巨大吸血烏賊”一事不予理會(huì)，但他將迅速采取行動(dòng),，使市場(chǎng)繼續(xù)依賴高盛這個(gè)交易商,。

????行動(dòng)很快就會(huì)到來(lái)。韋爾在消費(fèi)者新聞與商業(yè)頻道上的露面是個(gè)試探氣球,，向銀行業(yè)發(fā)出了許可,。華爾街高管們針對(duì)重新實(shí)施《格拉斯-斯蒂格爾法案》的所有呼號(hào)和憤怒都只是在說(shuō)：“別把我扔進(jìn)暴風(fēng)驟雨中?！彼麄儗⒃诜奖愕臅r(shí)候按照自己的計(jì)劃拆分自己執(zhí)掌的金融機(jī)構(gòu),，在這個(gè)過(guò)程中不會(huì)放過(guò)每一分利潤(rùn)。不要指望國(guó)會(huì)會(huì)為了公眾的利益采取行動(dòng),。但在進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)的時(shí)候,，可以打賭，華爾街一定會(huì)充分利用每一個(gè)機(jī)會(huì),。

3. 股利減少

????最后,，我們的第三個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)是，大公司支付的股利將會(huì)減少,。

????《金融時(shí)報(bào)》（Financial Times）說(shuō)股票正在勝過(guò)債券：“對(duì)52個(gè)機(jī)構(gòu)投資者的調(diào)查顯示，高收益率債券和高息股票都越來(lái)越受青睞,，此外還有房地產(chǎn)和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施,，以及發(fā)達(dá)和新興市場(chǎng)的投資級(jí)企業(yè)貸款?！边@與太平洋投資管理公司（PIMCO）董事總經(jīng)理比爾?格羅斯的說(shuō)法恰恰相反,。他宣稱“股票已死”。1979年8月,，就在20世紀(jì)最漫長(zhǎng)牛市到來(lái)前夕,，《商業(yè)周刊》（Business Week）登載了一篇著名的封面故事，標(biāo)題就是《股票已死》,。從那時(shí)到現(xiàn)在,，這個(gè)短語(yǔ)始終在華爾街回響。

????格羅斯說(shuō)：“從歷史上看,，股票年均實(shí)際回報(bào)率為6.6%,，比GDP增速高了3%?！彼挠^點(diǎn)是：GDP增速只有3.5%,，但回報(bào)率卻是6.6%，這意味著你獲得了超過(guò)3%的“幽靈”回報(bào),。格羅斯說(shuō),，輸家是貸款人,、勞動(dòng)者和政府。對(duì)那些遭遇債權(quán)契約被取消,、失業(yè)或者稅收增加的人來(lái)說(shuō),，這是個(gè)很有吸引力的觀點(diǎn)。

????相關(guān)報(bào)道正在競(jìng)相爭(zhēng)奪媒體的頭版頭條版面——盡管邏輯告訴我們,，股票不能在已死的同時(shí)又受到青睞,。正如我們親愛(ài)的已故父親常說(shuō)的那樣，這也是賽馬比賽的組成部分,。

????但在這場(chǎng)比賽中殺出了一匹黑馬——不負(fù)責(zé)任的美國(guó)政策不斷推遲“美元之死”,。要求審查美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的國(guó)會(huì)議員或許有點(diǎn)道理。但我們認(rèn)為,，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)應(yīng)該要求審查國(guó)會(huì),。國(guó)會(huì)給伯南克的工具非常有限,，但卻要求他解決國(guó)會(huì)和白宮所有人員加起來(lái)都不知從何入手的問(wèn)題,。只有一把錘子和直尺的伯南克必須弄明白如何砍、鉆,、擰,、斜切、刨,、推平,、斜接和組裝一個(gè)被首要責(zé)任人惡意忽視的經(jīng)濟(jì)。國(guó)會(huì)的職責(zé)是通過(guò)負(fù)責(zé)任的財(cái)政政策,，然后授予美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)控制韁繩的權(quán)力,，好讓馬兒不致脫離賽道。

????然而,，國(guó)會(huì)已經(jīng)放棄了自己的職責(zé),。面對(duì)這種情況，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)用盡方法也無(wú)法提振美元,。美國(guó)企業(yè)界不是啞巴,。即使是在美國(guó)的信用評(píng)級(jí)從AAA被下調(diào)至AA之后，“無(wú)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”投資仍然能夠以負(fù)回報(bào)率將自己推銷出去,。在這種環(huán)境下,，獲得AAA信用評(píng)級(jí)的公司為什么要犧牲自己來(lái)拯救美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率？政府和銀行都不愿意拿錢出來(lái)的時(shí)候,，美國(guó)企業(yè)界是否應(yīng)該挺身而出呢,？看看近3.5%的IBM股票收益率，請(qǐng)捫心自問(wèn)：“為什么,？”

????如果你負(fù)責(zé)監(jiān)管股票基金或者零售經(jīng)紀(jì)賬戶,，你應(yīng)該會(huì)對(duì)異常事件非常敏感,。在這個(gè)時(shí)候，大型上市公司只需要對(duì)外宣稱,，鑒于形勢(shì)的不確定性,，他們認(rèn)為節(jié)約使用資源才是慎重的做法。這些公司的股票將遭受暫時(shí)的打擊,，但他們將撐過(guò)艱難時(shí)期。但是突然之間,，所有這些“慎重”的藍(lán)籌股投資組合將變成客戶訴訟,。

????這些劇烈的變化就像是把腌菜從罐子里拿出來(lái)。第一個(gè)很難拿,，但拿出來(lái)后,，其他的就會(huì)不斷地掉出來(lái),，掉出來(lái),，掉出來(lái)……

????譯者：千牛絮

????Weill is obviously right. The banks are not merely too big to fail – which is a public policy problem. They are too big to manage efficiently, which is a profitability problem. Take the lesson from the hedge fund industry, where many of the most successful managers are returning cash to their investors because their funds have grown unwieldy. There is an optimal size to every type of financial institution, and the lesson of the London Whale is that even Jamie Dimon may have hit his limit. Where Blankfein and Weill lead the way, can the likes of Dimon be far behind? Look for a new structure to emerge.

????Weill points to the undermining of public confidence in the financial markets as a compelling point in favor of separating deposit taking from risk taking. Too, the implementation of the Volcker Rule will be unbelievably messy, and smart bankers will make a clean break early. The few Wall Street executives with long memories are often the most successful. This should not be confused with bankers' concern with their reputations. Bank executives realize that their industry cycles in and out of favor with the public and they need to keep step with that sentiment in order to stay liquid. Lloyd Blankfein may brush off being called a "giant face-sucking vampire squid," but he will act swiftly to keep the markets relying on Goldman as counterparty.

????The move will come – Weill's CNBC appearance was the trial balloon and grants permission to the industry – all the screams and outrage of Wall Street execs pushing back against a reintroduction of Glass-Steagall is just so much "don't throw me in the briar patch." They will break up their institutions in their own good time, on their own plan, and will suck out every penny of profit in the process. You can't count on Congress to act in the public interest – but when it comes to predictability, you can bet on Wall Street to capitalize on an opportunity.

3. Dividend cuts

????Finally, our third prediction is that major corporations will cut their dividends.

????The Financial Times says equities are edging out bonds: A "survey of 52 institutional investors showed a shift towards high-yield bonds and high-dividend equities, together with real estate and infrastructure, alongside investment grade corporate credit in both developed and emerging markets." This contrasts with PIMCO's Bill Gross, who proclaimed the Death of Equities – a phrase that resonates on Wall Street ever since the famous August 1979 Business Week cover story of that title which came on the eve of the greatest prolonged bull market of the century.

????Gross says "the 6.6% historical real return from stocks" comes from "skimming 3% off the top." Here's his argument: GDP growth is only 3.5%, but your return is 6.6%, meaning you are reaping over 3% phantom return. The losers, says Gross, are lenders, labor, and government. To anyone who has seen bond covenants canceled, been laid off from their job, or seen their taxes go up, this is a compelling argument.

????These stories are competing for head space in the press – and while logic dictates that equities can't be both dead and in favor at the same time, that is also, as our dear departed Dad used to say, what makes horse racing.

????But there is a darker horse in this race -- feckless U.S. policy which continues to prolong the Death of the Dollar. Those in Congress pushing to audit the Fed may have a point. But we think the Fed should push for an audit of Congress. Bernanke has been given a limited toolkit and instructed to fix what all of Congress and the White House combined can not even begin to address. Armed with only a hammer and straightedge, Bernanke has to figure out how to cut, drill, screw, bevel, plane, level, miter and join an economy that is maliciously neglected by those most responsible for its welfare. Congress's job is to enact responsible fiscal policies, then to empower the Fed to draw the reins now to this side, now that, to keep the horses in the middle of the path.

????Instead, Washington has abdicated its responsibility, in the face of which no amount of Fed soldiering can strengthen the dollar. Corporate America is not dumb. In an environment where the Risk Free investment can allow itself to sell at a negative return, even after allowing its rating to be cut from AAA to AA, why should AAA companies knock themselves out to beat the yield on Treasurys? Should corporate America dole out its cash when neither the government nor the banks will? Look at IBM yielding almost 3.5% and ask yourself: "Why?"

????If you oversee managed equity funds, or retail brokerage accounts, you should be sensitive to outlier events. All it takes is one major listed company to announce they believe it prudent to husband their resources, given the uncertainty of the environment. The stock will take a temporary hit, but they'll tough it out. And all of a sudden, all those "prudent" blue chip portfolios will turn into customer lawsuits.

????These kind of tumultuous changes are like getting pickles out of a jar. That first one is so hard to get. But once it comes out, the rest just keep spilling and spilling and spilling…