????華爾街希望歐洲央行插手，給予西班牙和意大利債券市場(chǎng)無限度的支持,。理論上,，歐洲央行可以這么做，因?yàn)榛旧纤胗《嗌贇W元就能印多少,，把這些債務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)到它自己的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表上,。但歐洲央行應(yīng)該行動(dòng)到什么程度收手，同時(shí)并讓市場(chǎng)來接手呢,？有種說法是,，歐洲央行將對(duì)所有歐元區(qū)國(guó)家（不光是西班牙和意大利）的債券收益率設(shè)定上限，這將確保歐元區(qū)成員國(guó)能以自身可負(fù)擔(dān)的利率向公眾發(fā)行債券,。為了讓這樣的機(jī)制順利運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)，歐洲央行只需購(gòu)入足夠多的債券來推低收益率,。

????這樣的計(jì)劃成敗取決于細(xì)節(jié),，而細(xì)節(jié)應(yīng)當(dāng)在9月份向市場(chǎng)披露。如果一切順利,，它將有望成為歐洲央行向市場(chǎng)引入歐元債券的迂回之策,。隨著歐洲央行在資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表上記入大量的歐元區(qū)債券，轉(zhuǎn)過身來它就可以用這個(gè)債券組合來發(fā)行一只證券,，賣給投資者,。慢慢地，歐洲央行將放棄這項(xiàng)迂回之策,，承擔(dān)起歐元區(qū)所有的債務(wù),，然后歐元區(qū)債券將應(yīng)運(yùn)而生。如果這個(gè)計(jì)劃行得通,，它將是終結(jié)這場(chǎng)危機(jī)所需邁出的,、實(shí)實(shí)在在的第一步。

????但是,，即便這一空想的迂回債務(wù)共有化計(jì)劃確實(shí)是政策選擇之一,，歐洲央行仍然希望它是最后的選擇。德拉吉希望歐元區(qū)成員國(guó)先向救助基金尋求幫助，然后再到他在法蘭克福的辦公室,。那么,，現(xiàn)在這些基金的情況怎么樣？歐洲金融穩(wěn)定安排和國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（IMF）一起先是救助了幾個(gè)小國(guó)——愛爾蘭,、葡萄牙和希臘——至今已耗資1,920億歐元,。下個(gè)月，希臘可能還需要140億歐元,，將救助總額提高至2,060億歐元,。該基金還承諾用1,000億歐元支撐受困于房地產(chǎn)泡沫的西班牙銀行。這樣,，這個(gè)基金將只剩下1,340億歐元,。這點(diǎn)錢根本不夠用，西班牙和意大利估計(jì)要1,700億歐元融資才能撐到今年年底,，更別提意大利銀行業(yè)可能還需要幾十億歐元的救助——將來的某個(gè)時(shí)間,，意大利銀行業(yè)可能需要救助，這顯然已是板上釘釘,。

????再來看看歐洲穩(wěn)定機(jī)制,。它的規(guī)模還沒有確定，但我們知道歐元區(qū)成員國(guó)同意為所有救助基金提供的資金總額為7,000億歐元,。如果歐洲金融穩(wěn)定安排達(dá)到5,000億歐元的上限,，基本上留給歐洲穩(wěn)定機(jī)制的就只有2,000億歐元了。很可能歐洲金融穩(wěn)定安排余下的1,340億歐元將在10月份歐洲穩(wěn)定機(jī)制成立后轉(zhuǎn)到后者名下,，使得它的基金規(guī)模達(dá)到3,340億歐元,。如果所有的資金都是即刻可用，而不是按規(guī)定分批使用,，那么到今年年底前該基金近半資金都將耗費(fèi)在救助意大利和西班牙上,。當(dāng)然，前提是這兩個(gè)國(guó)家無法以合理的利率向私營(yíng)投資者賣出債券,。如果西班牙和意大利拿走了它們所需的全部1,700億歐元,，理論上歐洲穩(wěn)定機(jī)制進(jìn)入2013年時(shí)將僅余1,640億歐元。明年西班牙和意大利需要3,270億歐元,，也就是說到2013年年中歐洲穩(wěn)定機(jī)制就已經(jīng)用光了,。.

????雖然時(shí)間不長(zhǎng)，歐洲穩(wěn)定機(jī)制仍能為歐元區(qū)贏得一些寶貴的時(shí)間來尋找更長(zhǎng)久的歐元區(qū)危機(jī)解決方案,。不幸的是,，有可能他們根本不會(huì)贏得任何時(shí)間。因?yàn)?月12日德國(guó)憲法法院將對(duì)德國(guó)參與歐洲穩(wěn)定機(jī)制的合法性做出判決,。德國(guó)是這個(gè)機(jī)制的最大支持者,，德國(guó)的高信用評(píng)級(jí)是吸引投資者的招牌,。如果德國(guó)突然被迫撤出，整個(gè)歐洲穩(wěn)定機(jī)制的救助機(jī)制將轟然倒塌,。

????雖然救助基金從根本而言是權(quán)宜之計(jì),，并不是當(dāng)前危機(jī)的解決之道，但救助基金失敗的消息仍然可能引發(fā)市場(chǎng)的恐慌,。將會(huì)發(fā)生什么事情,，我們并不清楚，但這個(gè)沖擊帶來的巨大壓力必將考驗(yàn)成員國(guó)留在歐元區(qū)的決心,，特別是像芬蘭等已經(jīng)對(duì)救助表示過不滿的成員國(guó),。這可能還會(huì)讓荷蘭大選的政黨勢(shì)力平衡倒向反對(duì)歐元區(qū)的一方，甚至可能導(dǎo)致荷蘭退出歐元區(qū),。而且,，它還可能促使在希臘的歐洲央行和IMF官員拒絕該國(guó)的進(jìn)一步救助要求，導(dǎo)致希臘下個(gè)月出現(xiàn)債務(wù)違約,，觸發(fā)一系列連鎖反應(yīng),，最終迫使希臘退出歐元區(qū)。

????為了防止恐慌情緒蔓延,，歐洲央行可能會(huì)向市場(chǎng)承諾如果救助基金失敗,，歐洲央行將立即開始買入債券。無論如何,，希望那些8月份到海灘度假的歐元區(qū)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人們回來的時(shí)候休息好了,，因?yàn)楹芸赡?月份他們不會(huì)有太多時(shí)間睡覺了。

????譯者：早稻米

????Wall Street hopes the ECB will come in and support the Spanish and Italian debt markets indefinitely. Theoretically, the ECB could do it as it can essentially print as many euros as it likes, transferring that debt onto its balance sheet. But at what point do they stop and let the markets take over? There is talk that the ECB will set a cap on bond yields, not just for Spain and Italy, but for all eurozone members, which would ensure that the member states can issue debt to the public at rates they can afford. To facilitate such a mechanism, it would simply buy up enough debt to push yields down.

????This is the sort of plan that will either live or die on the details, which should be revealed to the market in September. If done right, it could be a backdoor way for the ECB to introduce eurobonds to the market. By assuming a large sampling of eurozone debt on its balance sheet, the ECB can essentially turn around and use the pool of debt to issue a security that can be sold to investors. Eventually, the ECB would drop the ruse and just assume all the continent's debt and the eurobond would be born. If the plan works, it would be the first concrete step needed to put an end to the crisis once and for all.

????But provided that this quixotic backdoor-debt-mutualization scheme is even an option, the ECB still wants it to be the last option. Draghi wants member states to go to the bailout funds for help first before coming to his office in Frankfurt. So how are the funds doing? Well, the EFSF, in conjunction with the IMF, first bailed out the little guys – Ireland, Portugal and Greece - costing the fund 192 billion euros so far. Greece may need another 14 billion euros next month, so that bumps the total up to 206 billion euros. The fund also has committed 100 billion euros to prop up Spain's property-bubble-ravaged banks. That leaves the fund with just 134 billion euros. That is simply not going to cut it as Spain and Italy need an estimated 170 billion euros of financing just to make it the to end of the year – and that precludes a possible multi-billion euro bailout of the Italian banking sector, which is surely in the cards at some point.

????Enter the ESM. Its size is in flux but we know that the total lending facility that eurozone members have agreed to for all bailout funds is 700 billion euros. If the EFSF caps out at 500 billion euros, that essentially leaves just 200 billion euros for the ESM. Most likely the 134 billion left in the EFSF would be transferred to the ESM when it is ready to go in October, giving the fund a grand total of 334 billion euros. If all the money is made available at once and not split up as mandated, then around half of the money would be eaten away to finance Italy and Spain for the rest of the year, provided they are not able to sell their debt to private investors at reasonable rates. If Spain and Italy eat the entire 170 billion euros needed, that means the bailout fund would theoretically enter 2013 with just 164 billion euros. Spain and Italy need 327 billion euros next year, which means the bailout fund could be totally exhausted by the middle of 2013.

????While short, the bailout fund buys the continent some precious time to come to a more lasting solution to the eurozone crisis. Unfortunately, there is a chance that they won't get any time at all. That's because on September 12th the German constitutional court will rule on the legality of Germany's participation in the ESM. Germany is the largest backer of the fund and its strong credit rating is being used to attract investors. If it is forced to withdraw suddenly, then the entire bailout mechanism would collapse.

????While it is true that the bailout funds are essentially a stop-gap measure and not a solution to the crisis, word of its failure could still spark panic in the markets. It is unclear what could happen, but the strain from the shock would certainly test the resolve of eurozone members to stay in the club, especially those that have already voiced their displeasure with bailouts, like Finland. It could also tip the balance in the Dutch elections to parties hostile to the eurozone, leading to its possible withdrawal from the club. And it could also push ECB and IMF officials in Greece to deny the country's cries for more money, forcing the nation to default on its debt payment due next month, setting off a chain reaction that could finally force the country out of the eurozone.

????The ECB could try to head off a panic by reassuring the markets that it would start buying bonds immediately if the bailout fund collapses. In any case, hopefully the eurozone leaders who took off time this month to go to the beach return home well rested, as there appears to be a strong possibility that they aren't going to get much sleep in September.