2013投資熱點(diǎn):華爾街看好中國(guó)

??? 不確定性四處彌漫,。投資者在哪里能找到一些安心? ????赫羅:這樣的不確定性事實(shí)上對(duì)股票投資者是件好事,,特別是像我們這樣的價(jià)值投資者,。我們倒是愿意在低價(jià)時(shí)買進(jìn)股票。而且,,談到買進(jìn)質(zhì)優(yōu)價(jià)廉的股票,,經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)不穩(wěn)定實(shí)際上幫了我們大忙。因此,,如果你打算中長(zhǎng)期投資——我得說(shuō),,所謂投資就得中長(zhǎng)期——現(xiàn)在是非常好的時(shí)機(jī),。 ????萊維倫茨,你對(duì)新興市場(chǎng)頗有研究,。你認(rèn)為投資者可以安心投資新興市場(chǎng)嗎,? ????萊維倫茨:爭(zhēng)議代表著投資機(jī)會(huì),我同意這一點(diǎn)?,F(xiàn)在真正是投資者(而非投機(jī)者)入市的時(shí)機(jī),。我認(rèn)為,這一點(diǎn)對(duì)于新興市場(chǎng)不能一概而論,。中國(guó)市場(chǎng)可能是爭(zhēng)議較多的一個(gè)時(shí)長(zhǎng),。人們對(duì)它的權(quán)力交接交接有很多擔(dān)憂。人們對(duì)于中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)經(jīng)過(guò)十年的兩位數(shù)增長(zhǎng)后,,長(zhǎng)期均衡增長(zhǎng)率將何去何從有很多的擔(dān)憂,,對(duì)于中國(guó)的會(huì)計(jì)問(wèn)題和企業(yè)治理也有很多疑慮。而中國(guó)也的確有一些出色的公司,。因此,,新興市場(chǎng)中我看好中國(guó)。 ????奧斯,,如果普遍來(lái)看,,你認(rèn)為投資者可以放心投資的地方在哪里? ????奧斯:目前我沒有看到哪里可以讓人很放心,。我們事實(shí)上是短線看空——這也是2008年以來(lái)我們首次回避投資股市,。我們擔(dān)心美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正在放緩。而與此同時(shí),,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)放緩,,而歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)即將步入衰退。因此,,短期內(nèi)我們告訴投資者要謹(jǐn)慎,。但我們依然相信,我們正處于一個(gè)長(zhǎng)期牛市之中,,預(yù)計(jì)2013年下半年股市表現(xiàn)會(huì)相當(dāng)不錯(cuò),。假如華盛頓最終就稅收政策和減稅措施達(dá)成長(zhǎng)期協(xié)議,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)中大量被抑制的需求將得到釋放,。歐洲可能已經(jīng)進(jìn)入了復(fù)蘇模式,。而且,我們已經(jīng)兩年來(lái)首次開始買進(jìn)中國(guó)股票,。 ????蘇博拉瑪尼亞,美國(guó)股市是你重點(diǎn)關(guān)注的領(lǐng)域,。它的情況怎么樣,? ????蘇博拉瑪尼亞:在美國(guó),,過(guò)去一年,幾乎所有有海外業(yè)務(wù)(不論比重大?。┑墓善倍荚獾搅讼喈?dāng)?shù)膾伿?,目前估值極有吸引力。因此,,我認(rèn)為,,現(xiàn)在確實(shí)是買入一些全球周期性股票的好時(shí)機(jī),它們的估值比一,、兩年前便宜了很多,。 |
????Uncertainty abounds. Where can an investor turn for a little comfort? ????Herro: This uncertainty is actually good for?an equity investor, especially one who has a value bent, as we do. So we'd rather be buying stocks at low prices. And in order to get quality at low prices, economic uncertainty and macroeconomic instability are actually very good for us. So if you have a medium- or long-term investment horizon -- which, I would argue, is what investing is all about -- this is a very good time. ????Justin, the emerging world is where you spend a lot of time. Do you find comfort for investors there? ????Leverenz: I agree that controversy represents meaningful opportunity. It really is an entry point for investors rather than speculators. I think that that's not broadly true in emerging markets. I think China is perhaps the one really significant area of controversy. There is a lot of concern about political transition. There is enormous concern about where normalized growth will be after a decade of double-digit growth and a lot of concern about accounting difficulties, corporate governance in China. And there are some really wonderful companies. So I like China within the emerging world. ????Steve, you look broadly at everything that's available. Where do you find a little comfort for investors? ????Auth: Well, right now I don't find a lot of comfort. We're actually fairly near-term bears -- the first time we've pulled back on equities since 2008. We are nervous that the U.S. economy is slowing. It's coming at the same time that you've got a slowdown in China and?Europe heading into recession. So near term, we're telling people to be cautious. However, we still think we're in a secular bull market for equities, and we think the second half of 2013 could be pretty good. We're going to have a lot of pent-up demand released on the economy, presuming Washington finally comes to a long-term agreement on?tax policy and entitlements. Europe probably enters a recovery mode. And we've started to buy China for the first time in two years now. ????Savita, U.S. equities are your focus. How do things look to you? ????Subramanian: In the U.S., equities with any width of foreign exposure have sold off significantly over the year and are now trading at a pretty attractive valuation. So I think this is actually a good entry point for buying some of the global cyclicals that could be a lot cheaper than they were a year or two ago. |