??? 通過(guò)投資美國(guó)股市可以成為一位相當(dāng)國(guó)際化的投資者,，有些人忽視了這一點(diǎn),。

????蘇博拉瑪尼亞：的確如此——美國(guó)公司40%或更多的銷售額來(lái)自海外。這確實(shí)是一個(gè)全球多元化相當(dāng)高的股票市場(chǎng),。

????福斯,，債券是你重點(diǎn)關(guān)注的領(lǐng)域,。一個(gè)大問(wèn)題是：普遍觀點(diǎn)一直認(rèn)為利率會(huì)走高，但事實(shí)是沒(méi)有,。你認(rèn)為什么時(shí)候會(huì)走高,？

????福斯：我希望我知道。我的意思是,，我們還是面對(duì)現(xiàn)實(shí)吧,，債券的定價(jià)早已高高在上。按常識(shí)判斷,，一旦主要央行退后,，利率很可能就會(huì)上升。有一些觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為未來(lái)利率會(huì)下降,，但最終結(jié)果（我認(rèn)為這是最有力的論據(jù)）是利率上升,。可能不會(huì)出現(xiàn)上世紀(jì)70年代末的狀況（我希望不會(huì)）,，但利率會(huì)長(zhǎng)期走高?，F(xiàn)在，這是一個(gè)壞消息,。但這也是一個(gè)好消息,。只有當(dāng)你與債券打交道的時(shí)間足夠久，你才能知道該怎么做,。你會(huì)說(shuō)：“別再盯著今天的糟糕收益以及短期內(nèi)可能令人心驚的虧損,，多看看好消息?！倍嬲暮孟⑹?，如果順利的話，未來(lái)利率將上升,，再投資回報(bào)也將上升,；一切都取決于如何管理投資組合。與此同時(shí),，面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也非常具體,。這就是當(dāng)前債市的本質(zhì)。債市本質(zhì)上就沒(méi)那么激動(dòng)人心,。我的意思是,，股市充滿起伏，也更激動(dòng)人心,。但如果能提前打算,，也能賺到不錯(cuò)的錢。

????利率是漲是跌,，這個(gè)問(wèn)題對(duì)于希望獲得收益的很多投資者而言很重要,。他們喜歡看到利率走高,。奧斯，你怎么看,？

????奧斯：我們一直告訴投資者,，下一個(gè)可能出現(xiàn)大面積投資損失的領(lǐng)域就是美國(guó)國(guó)債。但時(shí)間可能是在幾年之后,，因?yàn)槲覀兊拿缆?lián)儲(chǔ)（Fed）決定在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)保持利率低位,。因此，我們認(rèn)為短時(shí)間內(nèi)不會(huì)出現(xiàn)債市拋盤,，坦率說(shuō),，2013年可能也不會(huì)。但會(huì)在某一時(shí)間出現(xiàn),。如果準(zhǔn)備投資3年,，我們認(rèn)為可能不太適宜。會(huì)虧錢的,。

????是的,。蘇博拉瑪尼亞，這是你一直關(guān)注的另一個(gè)領(lǐng)域,。

????蘇博拉瑪尼亞：沒(méi)錯(cuò),。我認(rèn)為利率回升事實(shí)上對(duì)股市是件好事，但對(duì)某些行業(yè)可能不利,。在標(biāo)普指數(shù)中,，我最擔(dān)心的是公用事業(yè)和電信類股，這些股票當(dāng)前交易價(jià)格對(duì)應(yīng)的市盈率已達(dá)到了荒謬的水平,?！坝悬c(diǎn)像是債券泡沫已經(jīng)轉(zhuǎn)到了股市，推高了類似債券股票的估值：管制類公用事業(yè)股票,、電信和煙草股票,。”這些股票全部都相當(dāng)?shù)陌嘿F,。我估計(jì),，如果利率大幅上升,，這些股票會(huì)遭到大舉拋售,。

??? Some people overlook the fact that you can be a very global investor through U.S. equities.

????Subramanian: Exactly -- 40% or more of sales of U.S. companies are derived from overseas. They're actually a pretty globally diversified equity market.

????Dan, bonds are your focus. The big question: The conventional view has been that interest rates must go up, and they keep not going up. When will they?

????Fuss: Oh, I wish I knew. I mean, let's face it, bonds are priced in general higher than a kite. So common sense tells you that when and if the major central banks back off, rates will probably go up. There are some arguments for lower rates in the future, but the net outcome -- I think the strongest argument -- is for higher rates. Maybe not like the late '70s -- I hope not -- but a secular uptrend in interest rates. Now, that's the bad news. It's also the good news. You only know how to do this when you're out and about long enough, particularly with bonds. You say, "Take your focus away from the lousy income today and the horrifying capital loss that might be in front of you, and focus on the good news." And the good news literally, depending on how you run the portfolio, is hopefully interest rates will go up in the future and reinvestment returns will rise. And you're dealing with very specific risk in the meantime. And that's the nature of bonds today. Bonds by their nature are not exciting. I mean, stocks are exciting. But you can make darn good money in bonds if you think ahead.

????This issue of what's going to happen with interest rates is important for a lot of investors who want yield. They would love to have higher interest rates. Steve?

????Auth: We've been telling our investors that the next place you're going to lose a lot of money is inTreasury bonds. It's probably going to take a few years to get there, though, because you've got a Fed that is determined?to keep rates low?for a while. So we think the selloff of bonds is still out there somewhere, but probably not in 2013, frankly. But at some point. And if you take a three-year view, for us it's just not the place you want to be. You're going to lose money there.

????Right. Savita, this is another thing you've got to pay attention to.

????Subramanian: Oh, sure. I think a backup in rates would actually be good for the market, but it could hurt some sectors. The ones I worry about most in the S&P are utilities and telecom, which are actually trading at pretty ridiculous multiples at this point. I mean, it kind of feels like the bond bubble moved into the equity market and pushed up the valuations of the bond proxies, which are regulated utilities, telecom, tobacco stocks. These are all quite expensive. And I think that they could sell off pretty dramatically if we get a meaningful increase in interest rates.