????如果問問投資者2013年擔(dān)心些什么，大多數(shù)人的回答必然會(huì)包括中國(guó),。吉姆?奧尼爾是個(gè)例外,，而且可以毫不夸張地說，他已經(jīng)將自己的職業(yè)前途押在了中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)成功上,。早在2001年,，我們大多數(shù)人仍然震驚于網(wǎng)絡(luò)泡沫的破裂時(shí)，奧尼爾卻用巴西,、俄羅斯,、印度和中國(guó)這四個(gè)國(guó)家的英文首字母炮制出了“BRIC（金磚四國(guó)）”一詞，并宣稱這四個(gè)新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體,，特別是中國(guó),，未來十年將推動(dòng)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展,。后來雖然爆發(fā)了金融危機(jī)，但他的預(yù)言大致是正確的?，F(xiàn)在,，有些人開始擔(dān)心中國(guó)這個(gè)世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體可能崩潰。現(xiàn)年55歲,、掌管超過8000億美元資產(chǎn)的高盛資產(chǎn)管理（Goldman Sachs Asset Management）董事長(zhǎng)奧尼爾依然樂觀,。他預(yù)測(cè)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)從制造向消費(fèi)的轉(zhuǎn)型有望實(shí)現(xiàn)軟著陸。他相信,，2013年中國(guó)股市將和日本,、歐洲那些此前表現(xiàn)低迷的股市一起領(lǐng)先于全球股市。下面是經(jīng)過編輯的采訪節(jié)選：

????最近,，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）策略師魯吉?夏爾馬等人紛紛唱衰金磚四國(guó),，認(rèn)為投資者們不應(yīng)指望這些國(guó)家。

????事實(shí)上這取決于人們?cè)瓉淼念A(yù)期是什么,。我不知道有多少正常人真的會(huì)預(yù)測(cè)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將保持10%,。

????他不光是說中國(guó)沒有實(shí)現(xiàn)預(yù)計(jì)的10%增速。他說的是中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將來可能連5%都達(dá)不到,。

????2010年和2011年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速出現(xiàn)下降是因?yàn)檎咧贫ㄕ邆兎浅?dān)心通脹,，通脹曾在很短的一段時(shí)間內(nèi)大大高于目標(biāo)水平。當(dāng)然通脹的上漲與中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)房?jī)r(jià)的急速上漲也不無關(guān)系,。因此，他們特意放緩了增速,。但是,，要說中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將降至5%或以下，那就拿出依據(jù)來,，我是想象不出,。

????中國(guó)大量農(nóng)村人口已經(jīng)進(jìn)城，總體人口結(jié)構(gòu)趨于老齡化,。因此,，人口結(jié)構(gòu)將不再是中國(guó)的優(yōu)勢(shì)因素。

????首先,，中國(guó)的城市化進(jìn)程可能還只是進(jìn)行了一半,。第二，現(xiàn)在人們突然開始說：“哦,，中國(guó)遇到了人口結(jié)構(gòu)挑戰(zhàn),。”我的感覺是,，“過去十年你們都睡著了嗎?”對(duì)于那些長(zhǎng)期以來關(guān)注中國(guó)的人們來說,，這些都不是什么新鮮事,，特別是對(duì)于中國(guó)的決策機(jī)構(gòu)而言。他們已經(jīng)開始重視經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的質(zhì)量,，注重提高生產(chǎn)率,，而不只是依賴龐大的農(nóng)村人口進(jìn)城。我認(rèn)為印度和巴西有些東西值得擔(dān)憂,，但就中國(guó)而言,，我要說的就是，它的表現(xiàn)好于我的預(yù)期,。

????

????Ask most investors for their list of concerns for 2013, and China is on it. Jim O'Neill is an exception -- and it's not much of an exaggeration to say he has staked his career on that country's success. Back in 2001, when most of us were still dazed by the dotcom bust, O'Neill created the acronym BRIC, which stands for Brazil, Russia, India, and China. He proclaimed that those emerging economies, China's in particular, would drive markets for the next decade. The financial crisis notwithstanding, he has been broadly correct. Now some fear a bust in the world's second-largest economy. O'Neill, the 55-year-old chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GS), which oversees more than $800 billion, remains optimistic. He predicts a transition from manufacturing to consumption that will create a rare soft landing. And he thinks that Chinese stocks, along with battered markets in Japan and Europe, will lead the pack in 2013. Edited excerpts:

??? Lately people such as Morgan Stanley strategist Ruchir Sharma have been critical of the BRICs, arguing that investors shouldn't count on them.

??? It really depends on what people expected. How anyone in their right mind could seriously have expected China to continue to grow at 10% I'm not really sure.

??? His claim is not just that China hasn't lived up to its expected 10%. He's saying China isn't even going to grow 5%.

??? China slowed in 2010 and 2011 because policymakers were very worried about inflation, which was way above target for a brief period and of course linked to a very dramatic rise in urban house prices. And they deliberately slowed it. To argue that China is in the process of slowing to 5% or less -- anyone is entitled to a view, but I don't see what premise it's based on.

??? Well, the Chinese have moved to cities, and they're aging. So the demographic wind won't be at China's back anymore.

??? First of all, they're probably only about halfway through urbanization. Second, the fact that people are suddenly saying, "Oh, China's got a demographic challenge." I'm like, "Where have you all been sleeping for the past decade?" It's been known by those who follow it closely and, most importantly, by Chinese policymakers. That's why they've been focusing on better quality of growth and boosting their productivity rather than rely on sheer numbers of people urbanizing. I see things to worry about in India and Brazil, but if anything, China is doing better than I expected.