法國成歐元危機隱形不定時炸彈
????2005年以來,法國單位勞動力成本(比如,,生產(chǎn)一輛汽車或一根鋼梁的費用)增長了17%,,相比之下德國只增長了10%,西班牙增長5.8%,,愛爾蘭增長2%,。如今,法國工人的每小時工資為35.3歐元,,意大利只有25.8歐元,,英國和西班牙則是22歐元。 ????結(jié)果是法國制造業(yè)以及從咨詢到物流的配套服務業(yè)都大幅下滑,。企業(yè)利潤在GDP中的比例已劇降至6.5%,,僅及歐元區(qū)平均值的60%。這是因為法國出口商的市場份額在萎縮,,那些存活下來的企業(yè)必須降低利潤率,,給出更有競爭力的價格,。因此,,它們也缺乏資金來建新工廠和投資新技術(shù)。法國的出口企業(yè)數(shù)量如今僅及德國或意大利(或許讓人吃驚)的一半,。德國工業(yè)得益于其19,000臺機器人,,這一數(shù)量是法國的5倍。過去4年,,法國的研發(fā)支出也削減了50%,。 ????值得注意的是奧朗德政府正在打算通過加大企業(yè)負擔來增加政府收入。去年9月,,法國宣布了新法律以限制付息抵稅和虧損結(jié)轉(zhuǎn)抵稅,,事實上加大了企業(yè)稅負。這些措施將導致本已微薄的企業(yè)利潤進一步縮水,,阻礙未來的投資,。 ????假如法國專長生產(chǎn)利潤豐厚的高精尖產(chǎn)品,這樣的成本差距可能還不會那么有破壞性,。誠然,,法國在時裝、奢侈品和制藥領(lǐng)域仍然具有相當?shù)膶嵙?。這些行業(yè)是法國經(jīng)濟的亮點,,但同時,,這個國家也非常依賴汽車、紡織,、鋼鐵,、電信設(shè)備和其他中低利潤率產(chǎn)品,這些產(chǎn)品在國際市場上對價格相當敏感,?!胺▏跈C床或高端電腦設(shè)備等高精尖產(chǎn)品方面一直都不具備強勁的實力,“巴黎Flash Economics的讓-克里斯托弗·卡菲說,?!凹幢闶窃诟叨耸袌觯芏喾蓊~也被德國搶走了,?!?/p> ????比方說,德國專長制造高品質(zhì)汽車,,奧迪(Audi),、梅斯德斯(Mercedes)和寶馬(BMW)這些品牌就算價格漲一點,人們也愿意掏錢購買,。相比之下,,法國制造的雷諾(Renault)和標致(Peugeot)價格定位較低,如果不保持低價,,潛在客戶就可能被福特(Ford)或菲亞特(Fiat)搶走,,因此只能滿足于一點微薄、甚至近乎不存在的利潤,。 ????法國也沒有追隨鄰國降低勞動力成本的步伐,,對潛在危機做出應對。21世紀頭一個十年中期,,德國邁出了一大步:批準第四階段就業(yè)改革方案——哈茨四號(Hartz IV),,降低企業(yè)社保負擔。最近,,西班牙將領(lǐng)取全額養(yǎng)老金的退休年齡從65歲上調(diào)到了67歲,,并允許在公司層面進行工資談判,獨立于全國性的強制上調(diào)薪酬體系,。意大利也將在未來六年內(nèi)把女性退休年齡從60歲逐步提高到66歲,。 ????但2012年5月份當選的法國總統(tǒng)弗朗西斯·奧朗德則采取了溫和的舉措。法國政府承諾小幅減輕企業(yè)社保負擔,,但這項改革要到2014年才會啟動,,而且只會持續(xù)兩年。 ????競爭力問題直接導致法國經(jīng)濟未來可能缺乏增長,,進而引發(fā)財政危機,。值得注意的是,,上世紀90年代中期,法國的失業(yè)率,、預算赤字和債務/GDP比率都低于德國,,而經(jīng)濟增速卻幾乎一致。如今,,所有這些數(shù)據(jù)都倒了個,。 |
????Since 2005, France's unit labor costs -- the expense of producing a single car or steel beam, for example -- has jumped 17% compared with 10% for Germany, 5.8% for Spain, and 2% for Ireland. Today, French workers earn an average of 35.3 euros per hour, compared with 25.8 in Italy, 22 in the UK and Spain. ????The result is a steep fall in French manufacturing and the services that support it, everything from consulting to logistics. Corporate profits have plunged to 6.5% of GDP, about 60% of the euro zone average. That's because French exporters are losing market share, and the ones that survive must lower margins to charge competitive prices. As a result, they lack the funds to invest in new plants and technologies. France now has half as many exporting companies as Germany and, amazingly, Italy. German industry benefits from 19,000 robots, five times the number in France. As for R&D spending, it's dropped 50% in the past four years. ????Remarkably, the Hollande government is raising revenue by heightening the burden on business. In September, France announced new laws that limit deductions for interest payments and loss carry-forwards, effectively heaping higher taxes on business. Those measures will shrink already meager profits, and crimp future investment. ????The cost-gap wouldn't be so damaging if France specialized in sophisticated, high-margin products. Indeed, the nation remains strong in fashion, luxury goods, and pharmaceuticals. But though those offerings symbolize France's economic élan, the nation is heavily dependent on autos, textile, steel, telecom equipment and other mid-to-low margin products that are extremely price sensitive on world markets. "France has never been strong in high-end, sophisticated products like machine tools or high-end computer equipment," says Jean-Christophe Caffet of Flash Economics in Paris. "And even in the high-end, it's lost a lot of market share to Germany." ????Germany, for example, specializes in fancy cars, Audis, Mercedes and BMWs that folks are willing to keep buying if prices rise a bit. By contrast, France makes cheaper Renaults and Peugeots that risk losing sales to Ford or Fiat unless manufacturers hold down prices -- or settle for puny or non-existent profits. ????Nor is France reacting to the looming crisis by following its neighbors' campaign to lower labor costs. Germany made big strides in the mid-2000s with its Hartz IV reforms that lowered the social charges on businesses. Spain recently raised the retirement age for full pensions from 65 to 67 and allows wage negotiations at the company level, a departure from the centralized system of imposing mandatory nationwide increases in pay. Italy is gradually raising the retirement age for women from 60 to 66 over the next six years. ????But Francois Hollande, elected president in May, is taking far more tepid steps. The government is pledging to modestly lower social charges on businesses, but the reforms don't start until 2014, and last just two years. ????It's the prospect of a future without growth, a direct legacy of the competitiveness problem, that could unleash a fiscal crisis. It's remarkable that in the mid-1990s, France had a lower unemployment rate than Germany, smaller deficits, less debt to GDP, and approximately the same growth rate. All of those measures have now totally reversed. |