????每年必須在波多黎各住上半年,，這樣的安排也不算太糟。但對于百萬富翁,，甚至像保爾森這樣的億萬富翁,，這樣做可能不一定劃算。波多黎各的政治,、經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會狀況極不穩(wěn)定,，可能不是最佳的避稅地選擇。

????政治上波多黎各的不穩(wěn)定狀態(tài),，意味著新的投資法律可能會被削弱或撤銷,。為什么過去波多黎各沒嘗試過以鄰為壑、激起華盛頓不滿的稅收大戰(zhàn),？原因有一個,。波多黎各每年從美國拿到的援助和補(bǔ)貼達(dá)到約220億美元，這是一大筆錢,，相當(dāng)于該國GDP的1/4左右,。如果它釣到了像保爾森這樣的億萬富翁大魚,，有些援助和補(bǔ)貼可能會被砍掉。

????“波多黎各的情況可能會引發(fā)關(guān)注,，如何根據(jù)美國稅例處理美國屬地問題,，”艾奧瓦州共和黨參議員查克?格拉斯利告訴《財(cái)富》雜志(Fortune)，他也是稅收聯(lián)合委員會(Joint Committee on Taxation)的成員,?！叭绻绹鴩鴷涂偨y(tǒng)展開大幅稅收改革，需要協(xié)調(diào)美國屬地間的稅例,?；蛘撸ǘ嗬韪骶S持獨(dú)立的稅收體系,，但前提可能是要接受一些防止避稅條例,。”

????不只是共和黨人盯著波多黎各,。蒙大拿州民主黨參議員,、參議院財(cái)政委員會(Senate Finance Committee)主席麥克斯?鮑克斯的一位發(fā)言人表示，波多黎各問題已引起參議員的注意,，正在考慮將這一問題納入廣泛稅收改革的一部分,。

????美國政府可能通過扣留資金，迫使波多黎各協(xié)調(diào)稅例,，或者只要將波多黎各變成美國第51個州,，一切就順理成章了。這或許聽上去有點(diǎn)瘋狂,，但這種可能性真的存在,。去年11月，波多黎各一場無約束力的全民公決中,，有壓倒性票數(shù)贊成波多黎各作為一個州加入美國,。美國總統(tǒng)奧巴馬也表示，他支持波多黎各盡快加入美聯(lián)邦,。美國國會需要對其加入進(jìn)行投票,，理論上這隨時都可以進(jìn)行。唯一阻礙波多黎各的因素是黨派政治,。共和黨人并不熱衷于批準(zhǔn)一個可能強(qiáng)化民主黨勢力的州加入美聯(lián)邦,。但隨著共和黨支持年輕的西班牙裔參議員馬可?盧比歐——盧比歐來自波多黎各人眾多的佛羅里達(dá)州，2016年美國大選時共和黨人可能會將波多黎各視為一項(xiàng)資本,，而不是障礙,。

????因此，這項(xiàng)新稅法可能最終變成無效。如果保爾森動作快,，大概可以趕在這前面,。但他和家人依然需要每年至少在波多黎各住上183天，而美國政府肯定會進(jìn)行廣泛的調(diào)查,，確認(rèn)其遵守相關(guān)條例。圣胡安的生活和購物可能不像紐約那樣豐富多彩,。談到娛樂選擇,，圣胡安和這個島國的其他地方不乏各種花哨的選擇，但缺乏高質(zhì)量的選擇,。波多黎各的海灘很漂亮,，但對于一個像保爾森這樣的城市男人而言，這個島國最終可能變成一個天堂監(jiān)獄,。

????波多黎各也不全然都是海灘和古城堡,。保爾森必須生活在為經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會擔(dān)憂的波多黎各人中。45%的波多黎各人生活在貧困線之下,。美國政府削減制造補(bǔ)貼以及這場金融危機(jī),，已給這個島國的經(jīng)濟(jì)造成了嚴(yán)重沖擊。目前波多黎各的失業(yè)率處于15%左右的高位,，差不多是美國的兩倍,，迫使很多波多黎各人紛紛逃離這個島國，尤其是受過良好教育的精英階層,。

????There are worse fates than to be forced to live in Puerto Rico for half the year. But for millionaires and even billionaires, like Paulson, it may not be worth it. The political, economic, and social conditions down in Puerto Rico are extremely unstable and may not be the best bet in the tax game.

????Politically, Puerto Rico is in a state of flux, which means its new investment law could be countered or revoked. There is a reason why Puerto Rico hasn't tried this beggar-thy-neighbor kind of tax war with the U.S. in the past -- it makes Washington angry. That's a big deal given that Puerto Rico receives around $22 billion from the U.S. every year in the form of aid and subsidies. That makes up around a quarter of the island's GDP. It could see some of that aid sliced off if it nails some big billionaire fish like Paulson.

????"The situation with Puerto Rico might draw more attention to how U.S. territories are treated under U.S. tax laws," Sen. Chuck Grassley, the Republican from Iowa and member of the Joint Committee on Taxation, told Fortune. "Harmonizing the tax rules of the territories could be something to look at if Congress and the President undertake comprehensive tax reform. Or if Puerto Rico maintains a separate tax system, which could be conditioned on accepting certain rules to prevent tax evasion."

????It is not just Republicans who have their eye on Puerto Rico. A spokesman for Senator Max Baucus, the Democrat from Montana and Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, said that the Puerto Rico issue is on the Senator's radar, and he is looking into it as part of his efforts in comprehensive tax reform.

????The U.S. government could bully Puerto Rico to harmonize its tax code by withholding funds, or it could do it by default by just making it the 51st state. While that might sound crazy, it is actually a real possibility. Puerto Ricans voted overwhelmingly to join the U.S. as a state in a non-binding referendum last November. President Obama says he supports the admission of Puerto Rico into the union as soon as possible. Congress needs to vote on its admission, which could theoretically occur at any time. The only thing standing in Puerto Rico's way is partisan politics. Republicans aren't too keen to allow in a new state that would be solidly Democratic blue. But with the party championing Marco Rubio, the young Hispanic Republican Senator from Florida -- home to many Puerto Ricans, Republicans may come to see Puerto Rico as an asset and not a liberal liability in the 2016 election.

????So the new law may eventually become null and void. If Paulson moves fast enough he may slip under the radar. But he would still have to live in Puerto Rico with his family for at least 183 days per year, which will undoubtedly be scrutinized by the U.S. government extensively to make sure he isn't cheating. Life in San Juan isn't as exciting as it is in New York, and the shopping pales in comparison. Indeed, San Juan and the rest of the island are heavy on the kitsch but low on the substance when it comes to entertainment options. The beach is amazing, but eventually, for a city boy like Paulson, the island could come to resemble a sort of paradise prison.

????And Puerto Rico is not all beaches and historic forts. Paulson must live amongst a population under economic and social terror. Forty-five percent of the population lives under the poverty line. The reduction of manufacturing subsidies by the U.S. government combined with the financial crisis has hit the island's economy hard. Unemployment is up around 15%, nearly double that of the U.S., forcing Puerto Ricans to abandon the island in droves, especially the educated elite.