????Gardner Russo & Gardner公司的湯姆?羅素稱,，他認(rèn)為人們多多少少夸大了提高美國(guó)天然氣產(chǎn)量和降低物價(jià)的新技術(shù)在提振經(jīng)濟(jì)方面的作用,。格林沃德表示認(rèn)同。在一個(gè)服務(wù)驅(qū)動(dòng)型的經(jīng)濟(jì)體中,，能源價(jià)格不再那么重要,。“美國(guó)制造業(yè)重生的希望與讓美國(guó)倒退至農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)一樣渺茫,，”他說(shuō),。“因?yàn)檫@在成本結(jié)構(gòu)上行不通,?！?/p>

????對(duì)蓋伯里來(lái)說(shuō)，他最擔(dān)心的是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的債券收購(gòu)計(jì)劃,，這個(gè)計(jì)劃會(huì)壓低利率,。他說(shuō)：“美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)能夠在不威脅到市場(chǎng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)的情況下退出貨幣刺激措施嗎？我認(rèn)為不可能,?！?/p>

????包括冬青基金（Wintergreen Fund）經(jīng)理戴維?溫特斯在內(nèi)的這批投資者似乎都擔(dān)心債券市場(chǎng)的潛在泡沫。庫(kù)珀曼稱,，未來(lái)三年,，債券投資者的損失可能高達(dá)20%。他說(shuō),，高收益率債券尤其缺乏吸引力,。格林沃德說(shuō)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)是一個(gè)需求巨大的投資者,，但這些需求不是由基本面推動(dòng)的,。一旦形勢(shì)好轉(zhuǎn)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)就會(huì)改變想法,?！皢?wèn)題是你是否想要與美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)并肩投資，”格林沃德說(shuō),?！拔业幕卮鹂隙ㄊ牵翰灰,！?/p>

????雖然宴會(huì)上的投資者都是巴菲特長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)的忠實(shí)追隨者,，但是這次伯克希爾公司在宴會(huì)上并沒(méi)有獲得投資者的青睞。庫(kù)珀曼表示不會(huì)持有伯克希爾的股票,。他說(shuō),，今年8月就滿83歲的巴菲特很難找到能夠像他這樣成功執(zhí)掌伯克希爾公司的繼任者,。伯克希爾公司業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)模龐大，擁有的資產(chǎn)從跑鞋制造公司到鐵路不一而足,。羅素和溫特斯說(shuō),，伯克希爾的股票去年上漲了33%，如今看上去不再具有良好的投資價(jià)值,。

????蓋伯里是宴會(huì)上唯一一位仍然看好伯克希爾股票的投資者,。他說(shuō)，他認(rèn)為未來(lái)五年,，這家公司股價(jià)每年可上漲10%,。但他表示,，再接下去,，他也很擔(dān)心接班人問(wèn)題。

????羅素和溫特斯都認(rèn)為最好的投資標(biāo)的在歐洲市場(chǎng),。他們說(shuō),，投資歐洲綜合企業(yè)集團(tuán)是追新興市場(chǎng)增長(zhǎng)概念的一種好策略。更重要的是,，由于投資者擔(dān)心歐洲形勢(shì)，現(xiàn)在歐洲上市公司的估值要比美國(guó)跨國(guó)公司估值便宜,。羅素看好雀巢（Nestle）,。庫(kù)珀曼的首選股包括美國(guó)國(guó)際集團(tuán)（AIG）,、高通公司（Qualcomm）和卡路馳（Crocs）,。他還說(shuō),，F(xiàn)acebook的移動(dòng)業(yè)務(wù)收入增長(zhǎng)比市場(chǎng)預(yù)期強(qiáng)勁得多,。

????價(jià)值投資者對(duì)蘋(píng)果公司表現(xiàn)出比過(guò)去更濃厚的興趣。過(guò)去的六個(gè)月中,，蘋(píng)果股價(jià)下跌了23%。萊格曼森（Legg Mason）著名價(jià)值投資者比爾?米勒在希爾頓酒店擁擠的大堂酒吧里說(shuō),，目前股市上最好的投資標(biāo)的就是蘋(píng)果,。他最近一直都在為他的基金買(mǎi)進(jìn)股票。米勒還說(shuō),，相比邁克爾?戴爾和銀湖資本（Silver Lake Partners）的收購(gòu)報(bào)價(jià)對(duì)戴爾公司（Dell）的估值,，蘋(píng)果公司目前估值要便宜一半,，而后者目前還在增長(zhǎng),。

????對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理惠特尼?蒂爾森在酒店會(huì)議室舉辦了一個(gè)雞尾酒會(huì)。他說(shuō)他購(gòu)買(mǎi)蘋(píng)果股票有一陣子了,，他認(rèn)為蘋(píng)果股價(jià)將會(huì)升至550美元,。蒂爾森和米勒都很贊成蘋(píng)果最近宣布的發(fā)債及增派股息的計(jì)劃。

????“我認(rèn)為這對(duì)了一半,，”蒂爾森說(shuō),。“這已經(jīng)足夠了,，再加上一些創(chuàng)新,，足以推動(dòng)股價(jià)在當(dāng)下上漲。但是如果要讓我成為他們的長(zhǎng)期股東的話,，他們還需要拿出更好的資本計(jì)劃和更多的創(chuàng)新,?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：默默

????Tom Russo of Gardner Russo & Gardner said he thought people were overstating how much new technologies that were boosting natural gas production in the U.S. and driving down prices would help the economy. Greenwald agreed. Energy prices don't matter as much in a service-driven economy. "A manufacturing rebirth in the U.S. is just as possible as us going back to agriculture based economy," says Greenwald. "The cost structure doesn't work."

????Gabelli, for his part, was most worried about the Fed's bond buying program, which has held down interest rates: "Will the Fed be able to exit without undo risk to the economy and market? I don't think so."

????All of the investors on the panel, which also included David Winters of the Wintergreen Fund, seemed concerned about a potential bubble in the bond market. Cooperman said investors could lose as much as 20% in the bond market in the next three years. He said high yield bonds were particularly unattractive. Greenwald said the Fed is an investor with lots of demand that's not driven by the fundamentals, one that will change its mind just as things are getting better. "The question is whether you want to invest along side that," says Greenwald. "My answer is definitely not."

????Even Berkshire didn't garner a lot of enthusiasm among the investors at the dinner, all of which have been long-time Buffett fans. Cooperman, who said he wouldn't own the stock, said Buffett, who is turning 83 in August, will have a hard time finding someone else who can run such a large stable of businesses. Berkshire owns everything from railroads to a company that makes running shoes. Russo and Winters say Berkshires shares, which are up 33% in the past year, no longer look like a good value.

????Gabelli was the only investor at the dinner who was still bullish on Berkshire's shares. He said he thought they could rise 10% a year for the next five years. After that, he said he too was nervous about the succession issue.

????Russo and Winters both thought the best investments were in Europe. They said large European conglomerates were a way to play the growth in emerging markets. What's more, because of the fears about Europe they are trading at a discount to U.S. multi-nationals. Russo likes Nestle (NSRGF). Cooperman's top picks included AIG (AIG), Qualcom (QCOM), and Crocs (CROX). He said Facebook's (FB) moblie revenues are much stronger than people think.

????One company getting more interest from value investors than in the past is Apple (AAPL). The company's shares are down 23% in the past six months. Famed value investor Bill Miller of Legg Mason, who was hanging out in the crowded lobby bar of the Hilton, said Apple was the best investment in the market right now. He said he has recently been buying shares for his fund. Miller says Apple's shares trade at half the valuation of the proposed Dell deal, and it is still growing.

????Hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson, who was holding a cocktail reception in a conference room at the hotel, says he has been buying Apple shares for a while. He thinks the stock can go to $550. Both Tilson and Miller like the recently announced deal to borrow money and pay out more dividends to shareholders.

????"I think it is half right," Tilson said. "It's enough, along with a little innovation, to make the stock go up for now. But they need a better capital plan and more innovation for me to be a long-term shareholder."