????巴西的大規(guī)?？棺h活動(dòng)或許已有所緩和,，但動(dòng)蕩局勢(shì)遠(yuǎn)未終結(jié)。上周早些時(shí)候,，在里約熱內(nèi)盧足球賽場(chǎng)（巴西-西班牙比賽）外動(dòng)用催淚瓦斯便是明證,。這樣的動(dòng)蕩局面可能會(huì)讓早已脆弱不堪的巴西金融市場(chǎng)形勢(shì)更為嚴(yán)峻。這場(chǎng)由于上個(gè)月巴士票價(jià)上調(diào)引發(fā)的抗議潮讓巴西政府為緩解國(guó)際投資者輪番撤離新興市場(chǎng)的過程中可能出現(xiàn)的災(zāi)難性資本外逃而做的努力大打折扣,。

????如果巴西政府不迅速采取行動(dòng)化解躁動(dòng)的民憤情緒,，同時(shí)向投資界證明該國(guó)將恪守負(fù)責(zé)任的政府支出，巴西可能會(huì)因此陷入嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)滑坡,。

????巴西人大多安于現(xiàn)狀,。他們經(jīng)歷過獨(dú)裁統(tǒng)治、腐敗政府和劇烈的經(jīng)濟(jì)震蕩,，并沒有多少普遍的怨言,。是的，這個(gè)國(guó)家也是最晚取締奴隸制的西方國(guó)家,，而且取締奴隸制并不是因?yàn)榇蠓秶拿癖娖鹆x,，而是因?yàn)闀r(shí)間使然。

????但巴西在過去幾年已經(jīng)發(fā)生了翻天覆地的變化,。如今近2億的巴西人比在巴西短暫的歷史上任何時(shí)期的巴西人都更加富有，受教育情況也更好,。過去10年,，巴西有約4,000萬人口脫離貧困，占總?cè)丝诒壤哌_(dá)20%,。與此同時(shí),，高等教育入學(xué)人數(shù)已經(jīng)增加了一倍，年輕人口的非文盲比例也已經(jīng)超過97%,。

????這些都是投資者樂于聽到的消息,。一個(gè)國(guó)家人口的富裕程度和受教育程度提高往往會(huì)帶動(dòng)該國(guó)各項(xiàng)服務(wù)和資產(chǎn)的消費(fèi)良性增長(zhǎng),。它造就了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)螺旋式上升，投資者能夠在各種不同的市場(chǎng)都收獲良好的回報(bào),。

????因此,，擁有豐富可開采自然資源以及快速增長(zhǎng)服務(wù)行業(yè)的巴西當(dāng)時(shí)是很多投資者熱衷的新興市場(chǎng)，特別是那些專注固定收益的投資者,。投資者可以安心地把現(xiàn)金放在這里,，收獲遠(yuǎn)超他們?cè)跉W洲、甚至美國(guó)能獲得的回報(bào),。

????而且,，巴西還是一個(gè)擁有相對(duì)完善法律體系的民主國(guó)家，當(dāng)時(shí)為投資者提供了遠(yuǎn)離政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的保障,，這一點(diǎn)在新興市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體中非常罕見,。巴西受到投資者的熱烈歡迎，即使巴西經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)在2011-2012年間陷入了停滯,，它獲得的外國(guó)直接投資額仍然穩(wěn)定地保持在650億美元左右,。人們滿懷希望，相信巴西經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)反彈,。

????但巴西的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況非但沒有好轉(zhuǎn),，看起來似乎惡化了。上個(gè)月在巴西政府宣布預(yù)計(jì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將進(jìn)一步下滑后,，信用評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)穆迪（Moody's）和標(biāo)普（S&P）雙雙調(diào)低了巴西的債務(wù)評(píng)級(jí),。巴西國(guó)債交易員告訴《財(cái)富》雜志（Fortune） 稱，這個(gè)消息造成了巴西固定收益市場(chǎng)資本大批外流,。彭博社（Bloomberg）的一項(xiàng)分析顯示,，今年二季度，美元計(jì)價(jià)的巴西債券下跌近8%,，創(chuàng)下自2002年以來的單季最大跌幅,。

????The massive protests in Brazil may have subsided, but the unrest is far from over, as evidenced by the tear gas earlier this week outside the Brazil-Spain soccer game in Rio. The turmoil threatens to exacerbate an already tense situation for the nation's shaky financial markets. The protests, which erupted last month in response to a hike in bus fares, is undermining the Brazilian government's attempt to alleviate a potentially disastrous flight of foreign capital as investors cycle out of emerging markets.

????If the government doesn't move to address the grievances of its restless and frustrated population quickly and prove to the investment community that it is still committed to responsible government spending, then the country could be setting itself up for a severe economic downturn.

????Brazilians rarely like to rock the boat. They have lived through dictatorships, corrupt governments and wild economic swings without much popular dissent. Indeed, this was, after all, the last western nation to ban slavery -- and it didn't come about because of a mass popular uprising, it just happened because it was time.

????But Brazil has changed dramatically in the last few years. Brazilians, now numbering nearly 200 million, are richer and more educated than at any time in the nation's short history. An amazing 20% of the population, around 40 million people, have been lifted out of poverty in the past decade. At the same time, enrollment in higher education has doubled and the nation's literacy rates among youths now tops 97%.

????These are all good things for investors to hear. A richer and more educated population usually leads to a healthy uptick in spending within the country on a variety of services and assets. This creates an upward spiral in economic growth where investors are able to reap healthy returns across a variety of markets.

????As such, with an abundance of exploitable natural resources and a growing service sector, Brazil was the favorite emerging market for many investors, especially those concentrated in fixed income. Investors were able to park their cash with ease and reap returns that well exceeded whatever they could get back in Europe or even in the United States.

????Furthermore, as a legitimate democracy with a somewhat competent legal system, Brazil also offered investors security from political risk, a rarity among emerging market economies. Brazil was so popular that foreign direct investment had held steady at around $65 billion from 2011 to 2012 even though economic growth in the country had stalled. The hope was that Brazil would bounce back.

????But instead of things picking up, Brazil's economy just seems to be getting worse. Credit rating agencies Moody's and S&P both downgraded Brazilian debt last month after the government said it was expecting a further slowdown in economic growth. Traders in Brazilian government debt tell Fortune that this is causing a major outflow of capital from Brazil's fixed income markets. As such, dollar-denominated Brazilian bonds are down nearly 8% in the second quarter of this year, the largest such decrease for a single quarter since 2002, according to an analysis by Bloomberg.