????同時(shí)還出現(xiàn)了其他一些情況。首先,，過(guò)去兩個(gè)月,，從華爾街到倫敦的投資者都在大量拋售新興市場(chǎng)債券。起初緩慢的拋盤(pán)已經(jīng)逐漸演變成瘋狂的出逃,，整個(gè)新興債券市場(chǎng)都受到重創(chuàng),，尤其是巴西。第二,，美國(guó)聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備委員會(huì)（US Federal Reserve）上個(gè)月表示,，可能打算在不遠(yuǎn)的未來(lái)上調(diào)利率，這個(gè)表態(tài)讓拋售變得更加瘋狂,。未來(lái)美國(guó)可能加息以及由此美國(guó)投資的回報(bào)率可能上升,，這樣的前景吸引投資者紛紛退出新興市場(chǎng)，重返美國(guó)市場(chǎng),。

????巴西財(cái)政部迅速展開(kāi)行動(dòng),，防止該國(guó)債券和股票市場(chǎng)的外國(guó)資本大失血。它首先取消了外國(guó)人投資巴西當(dāng)?shù)貍仨毨U納的6%稅率,。這項(xiàng)稅收是2010年巴西政府為防止巴西貨幣劇烈波動(dòng)而實(shí)施的,。如今取消這個(gè)稅種后，巴西國(guó)內(nèi)外投資者已經(jīng)獲得公平競(jìng)爭(zhēng)地位,，應(yīng)當(dāng)能引來(lái)新的投資者,。此外，巴西政府最近還將外匯衍生品的稅率降低了1%,，希望能推高巴西雷亞爾的匯率,。

????通常情況下，這樣的舉措至少應(yīng)能讓拋售穩(wěn)定下來(lái),。曾經(jīng)由于“外國(guó)人附加稅”而不愿進(jìn)入巴西市場(chǎng)的投資者在聽(tīng)到這項(xiàng)稅收已經(jīng)成為歷史的那一刻肯定會(huì)進(jìn)入巴西市場(chǎng),。但取消這項(xiàng)稅收還不足以吸引投資者回頭，原因是巴西大城市的街道上正在爆發(fā)抗議和騷亂,。

????最近的市場(chǎng)大跌過(guò)程中一直站在巴西一邊的基金經(jīng)理們發(fā)現(xiàn),，現(xiàn)在更難堅(jiān)守下去了，因?yàn)閿?shù)百萬(wàn)的巴西人走上街頭,、關(guān)閉港口,、造成交通混亂，同時(shí)也讓巴西政府惶恐不安。對(duì)于政府提高車(chē)費(fèi)（這已被取消）的憤怒已演變成一場(chǎng)無(wú)領(lǐng)導(dǎo),、無(wú)明確目標(biāo),、無(wú)明確議程的民眾抗議。引發(fā)抗議的原因很多,，包括：交通費(fèi),、原住民印第安人的權(quán)力、政府為2014年足球世界杯和2016年夏季奧運(yùn)會(huì)的投資,、國(guó)家和地方政府腐敗,、巴西國(guó)會(huì)正在審議的一項(xiàng)批準(zhǔn)醫(yī)生識(shí)別、“治療”同性戀的議案,，等等,。

????迄今為止，巴西總統(tǒng)迪爾馬?羅塞夫領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的政府在遏制這些抗議活動(dòng)方面非常失敗,，導(dǎo)致部分抗議活動(dòng)已經(jīng)演變?yōu)楸┝万}亂,。比如，上周末,，帶著風(fēng)帽的抗議者們用螺絲刀和彈弓為武器,，四處放火,，還攻擊了里約熱內(nèi)盧聯(lián)合會(huì)杯（Confederations Cup）足球比賽外執(zhí)勤的警察,。這起事件讓巴西政府非常難堪。

????那么,，政府該怎么做呢,？引發(fā)抗議的原因眾多，又沒(méi)有一個(gè)真正的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)機(jī)構(gòu),，看起來(lái)似乎很難控制,。不過(guò)，引發(fā)抗議的原因雖然各不相同,，但它們都有一個(gè)源頭——腐敗和中央政府管理失當(dāng),。新生的巴西中產(chǎn)階級(jí)受夠了巴西惡劣的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、糟糕的醫(yī)療體系,、超高的稅率和落后的教育,。巴西經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展讓政府收入持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，但這些錢(qián)沒(méi)有進(jìn)行有效地再投資,。事實(shí)上,，4,000萬(wàn)人能夠脫貧是因?yàn)榇笞谏唐穬r(jià)格上漲，推動(dòng)了服務(wù)行業(yè)的繁榮,。巴西政府基本沒(méi)有采取什么行動(dòng)來(lái)維系經(jīng)濟(jì)的繁榮,，約40%的所得稅也是迄今為止新興市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體中最高的。

????顯然，巴西政府需要實(shí)行重大改革,。首先,，巴西總統(tǒng)應(yīng)當(dāng)改組內(nèi)閣，罷免表現(xiàn)欠佳的部長(zhǎng),，借此向示威者表達(dá)她的善意,。她還可以針對(duì)所有這些問(wèn)題、排出一個(gè)行動(dòng)計(jì)劃,，同時(shí)闡明解決這些問(wèn)題的想法,。她還可以向巴西民眾解釋稱(chēng)，這些抗議活動(dòng)雖然在某種程度上上是可以理解的,，但可能會(huì)讓這個(gè)國(guó)家遭受經(jīng)濟(jì)重?fù)?。從里斯本到圣保羅的債券交易員們告訴《財(cái)富》雜志稱(chēng)，由于這些抗議活動(dòng)相關(guān)的不確定性因素,，他們害怕重返巴西債券市場(chǎng),。去年，巴西獲得的外國(guó)直接投資約650億美元,，但這個(gè)數(shù)字在未來(lái)數(shù)周可能會(huì)大幅跳水,。

????巴西的抗議活動(dòng)不會(huì)消退，除非政府采取一些積極措施表示它“已經(jīng)明白了”,。巴西政府的老辦法是袖手旁觀,，靜觀其變。但迄今為止,，這套做法并不管用,。巴西政府需要把目前的抗議活動(dòng)看成是宏觀社會(huì)改革的一部分，進(jìn)而抓住問(wèn)題的本質(zhì),。投資者將在一旁靜觀其變,，直到他們看到巴西采取真正一致的努力消滅腐敗，同時(shí)以適合這個(gè)世界第七大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的方式來(lái)治理國(guó)家,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????There are a few things going on here. First, there has been a mass sell-off in emerging market debt by investors from Wall Street to London in the last two months. What started out as a trickle of selling has since turned into a stampede for the exits -- with debt markets across the emerging market space taking a pounding, especially Brazil. Secondly, the rout was exacerbated by the US Federal Reserve, which signaled last month that it may be willing to raise interest rates in the not-so-distant future. The promise of higher rates, and, thus, potentially higher returns on U.S. investments, managed to lure investors away from the emerging markets and back to the U.S.

????Brazil's finance ministry has quickly sprung into action to prevent the hemorrhaging of foreign capital from the nation's debt and equity markets. It first eliminated a 6% tax foreigners had to pay to invest in Brazilian local bonds. The tax, put in place by the government in 2010 to supposedly prevent wild swings in the Brazilian currency, now levels the playing field and should draw in new investors. In addition, the government recently cut a 1% tax on currency derivatives in an attempt to boost the value of the Brazilian Real.

????Normally, such actions would have been enough to at least stabilize the sell-off. Investors who had hesitated to enter the Brazilian markets due to the "foreigners tax" would have jumped in the second they heard the news that the tax was history. But the tax changes haven't been enough this time around to lure back investors. That's because of what's going on in the streets of Brazil's largest cities -- protests and riots.

????Fund managers who had stuck by Brazil during the recent market rout will now find it even harder to do so with millions of Brazilians on the street, shutting down ports, creating traffic jams, and scaring the government. What turned out to be outrage at the government for raising transit fares (which had since been reversed) has now become a protest for everything by everyone with no clear leader or agenda. Among the dozens of causes that people are protesting include: transportation costs; Native Indian rights; government spending on the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Summer Olympics; corruption in state and local governments; and a bill in the Brazilian congress that would authorize psychologists to try and "cure" homosexuals.

????So far the government, led by President Dilma Rousseff, has failed miserably to contain the protests, many of which have become violent and chaotic. For example, over the weekend, hooded protesters armed with screwdrivers and slingshots set fires and attacked police outside the Confederations Cup soccer game in Rio de Janeiro. It was a terrible embarrassment for the government.

????So what is the government to do here? With so many different causes and no real leadership, it seems impossible to get control of the situation. But while there are many different causes, they all share a common root -- corruption and mismanagement in Brasilia. Brazil's new middle class is simply fed up with Brazil's shoddy infrastructure, terrible medical system, super high taxes and shoddy education. The government purse continues to expand thanks to the economic boom, but it has failed to reinvest that money in a productive way. Indeed, the 40 million people who pulled themselves out of poverty did so because of a surge in commodity prices that helped fuel a boom in the service sector. The government did little, if anything, to encourage the development of the boom and kept income taxes at around 40%, by far the highest such tax rate for an emerging market economy.

????It is clear that the Brazilian government needs major reform. For starters, the President could send a gesture of goodwill to the protestors by reshuffling her cabinet and firing ministers who have failed to perform. She can also create an action plan that addresses all the causes and sets forth ideas on how to address the problems. She should also explain to the Brazilian people that the protests, while understandably valid to some degree, could be setting the country up to take a big economic hit. Bond traders from Lisbon to Sao Paulo tell Fortune that they are afraid of jumping back into the Brazilian debt markets because of the uncertainty surrounding the protests. Foreign direct investment last year in Brazil was around $65 billion, but is set to take a big dive in the weeks to come.

????The protests in Brazil aren't going away without some proactive steps taken by the government to show that it "gets it." So far, the Brazilian government's usual plan of action, to do nothing and wait things out, isn't working. The government needs to see the protests as part of a larger social revolution and should get to the roots of the problem. Investors will be waiting on the sidelines until they see that Brasilia is making a true and concerted effort to stamp out corruption and govern in a way fitting for the world's seventh-largest economy.