????以歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇為題材進(jìn)行炒作的投資者可能需要重新考慮一下的策略。

????工業(yè)產(chǎn)值出人意料地大幅下跌,，再加上失業(yè)率居高不下,，表明歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)尚未擺脫困境。各個(gè)國(guó)家和整個(gè)歐盟的政策都欠妥,，政府也缺乏領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力,，這些依然影響著歐洲大陸再度崛起的能力。從本質(zhì)上講,，歐洲的問(wèn)題事關(guān)生死,，需要各級(jí)政府做出果斷而徹底的改變，以確保經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)現(xiàn)有力而持久的反彈,。除非歐洲領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人愿意通過(guò)必要,、但艱難的調(diào)整來(lái)讓局勢(shì)恢復(fù)正常，否則歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)將繼續(xù)滑坡,。

????華爾街和倫敦方面對(duì)歐洲的看法發(fā)生了巨大變化,。今年第二季度歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)稍有起色,，此后,，基金經(jīng)理已將數(shù)十億美元,、英鎊和歐元投入到了歐洲市場(chǎng)。他們盼望著歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)能像有些人所相信的那樣發(fā)生重大轉(zhuǎn)折,，從而讓他們獲利,。

????情況確實(shí)如此。高盛（Goldman Sachs）的研究結(jié)果顯示,，以養(yǎng)老基金和共同基金為首的美國(guó)投資者今年上半年共向歐洲股市投入了約650億美元（4004億元人民幣）資金,，達(dá)到36年來(lái)的最高水平。

????當(dāng)然,，這些資金流入歐洲并不都是因?yàn)橥顿Y者對(duì)歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)前景充滿(mǎn)期待,。部分資金來(lái)自于那些慌忙從新興市場(chǎng)撤資的基金經(jīng)理。今年新興市場(chǎng)的表現(xiàn)一直不那么火爆,，這些基金經(jīng)理又把資金轉(zhuǎn)移到了更為成熟的市場(chǎng),。

????但不管怎樣,，大量主動(dòng)進(jìn)入歐洲的資金都相信歐洲市場(chǎng)將出現(xiàn)一波重大行情。五年前的9月份,，雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）倒閉,，但美國(guó)股市在短短六個(gè)月后就急劇反彈，許多錯(cuò)失了這次良機(jī)的投資經(jīng)理至今仍然在深深自責(zé),。在那段黑暗的日子里,，有些基金冒險(xiǎn)將大筆資金投入美國(guó)金融板塊。隨后兩年中,，美國(guó)政府向美國(guó)銀行體系注入了巨額資金，這些基金因此而賺得盆滿(mǎn)缽滿(mǎn),。美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的速度遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)許多人的預(yù)期,，也超過(guò)了傳統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)所體現(xiàn)的水平。企業(yè)開(kāi)始大量盈利后,，這些經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)在很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間里還處于低迷狀態(tài),。

????由于恐懼而錯(cuò)過(guò)重大行情很難讓人接受。畢竟,，就像人們常說(shuō)的那樣,，“不入虎穴焉得虎子”。對(duì)吧,？考慮到今年有這么多的資金流入歐洲,，人們可能會(huì)認(rèn)為這樣做萬(wàn)無(wú)一失——但情況當(dāng)然并非如此。有些人相信歐元區(qū)17國(guó)正在全面復(fù)蘇,，而實(shí)際上這種觀點(diǎn)看上去越來(lái)越像一個(gè)偽命題,。

????上周公布的歐元區(qū)7月份工業(yè)產(chǎn)值環(huán)比下跌了1.5%，讓歐洲市場(chǎng)普遍倒吸了一口涼氣,。之前人們普遍預(yù)期7月份工業(yè)產(chǎn)值將和6月份持平,，也就是說(shuō)大家都錯(cuò)了，而且錯(cuò)的離譜,。

????Investors betting on a strong economic recovery in Europe may need to rethink their strategy.

????Steep and surprising declines in industrial production, along with continued high unemployment, show that the continent's economy is still stuck in the mud. Bad policy and a lack of leadership on both the national and EU level, continues to harm the continent's ability to get back up on its feet. Europe's troubles are existential in nature and require bold and sweeping changes at all levels of government to ensure a strong and lasting economic recovery. Until Europe's leaders are willing to make the tough changes necessary to get things back up and running properly, the continent's economy will continue to degrade.

????There has been a sharp change of sentiment on Wall Street and in the City of London towards Europe. Ever since the continent showed a smidgen of positive economic growth in the second quarter of the year, money managers have been pouring billions of dollars, pounds and euros into European investments on the hopes of cashing in on what some believe could be a major economic turnaround.

????Indeed, investors in the U.S., led by major pension and mutual funds, have invested some $65 billion in European equities during the first half of the year, the highest such dollar amount in 36 years, according to research from Goldman Sachs.

????To be sure, not all that money has flowed into Europe because investors are keen on the continent's growth prospects. Some of it has come from managers who have been frantically pulling their cash out of emerging market investments, which haven't done so hot this year, and dumping it in more mature markets.

????Nevertheless, a great deal of that cash has moved into Europe intentionally on the belief that the markets there are set for a major rally. Many portfolio managers are still kicking themselves for missing the sharp recovery in U.S. equities that took place just six months after the collapse of Lehman Brothers five years ago this month. Those funds that took the risk and bet big on U.S. financial stocks during those dark days reaped massive returns over the next two years as the U.S. government shoveled tons of cash into its banking system. The U.S. economy recovered far faster than many had anticipated and outpaced traditional economic indicators that remained sour well after companies started pumping out strong profits.

????It is tough missing out on a major rally because of fear. After all, as the saying goes, "fortune favors the bold," right? Given the amount of money that has flowed into the continent this year one would think that it was a sure bet -- but, of course, it isn't. Indeed, the economic recovery that some believe is taking place across the 17-member eurozone is looking more and more like a sham.

????Last week, European markets collectively gasped in horror when it was revealed that industrial production across the eurozone for July fell 1.5% compared to the previous month. The consensus was for a flat number, meaning that the consensus was off -- way off.