????美國國會的債務(wù)上限談判取得了期盼已久的突破，達(dá)成協(xié)議的希望越來越大了,。協(xié)議達(dá)成后,，美國將能夠提高債務(wù)上限并結(jié)束長達(dá)兩周的政府關(guān)門。雖然在美國財(cái)政部即將耗盡其舉債限額的前幾天,，美國有望僥幸躲過違約的厄運(yùn),，但這或許也只能為美國提供一個短暫的喘息機(jī)會。

????據(jù)《華盛頓郵報(bào)》（Washington Post）報(bào)道,，美國參議院共和黨核心議員將于周二上午11點(diǎn)召開會議,，審議已成形的協(xié)議。如果最終達(dá)成協(xié)議,，美國財(cái)政部的舉債能力將延期至明年2月7日,，美國政府也將重新開門。此外,，它還能在1月中旬前為聯(lián)邦機(jī)構(gòu)提供資金,。幾個月之后，如果國會因債務(wù)上限再度陷入僵局,，那也不足為奇,。只不過下一次美國的運(yùn)氣可能沒這么好了，至于為什么會這么說,，看看最新的這次債務(wù)上限談判就很清楚了,。

????與2011年標(biāo)普（Standard & Poor's）調(diào)降美國AAA級信用評級時的政治僵局不同，這一次部分議員（尤其是共和黨議員）一直對此漠不關(guān)心,。

????他們一直在淡化觸及債務(wù)上限的嚴(yán)重性?？纤輩⒆h員蘭德保羅表示,，美國可以專門預(yù)留資金來償付債券持有人，從而避免違約,。這種說法乍一聽有點(diǎn)道理,，但實(shí)際上意味著其他政府支出就沒有保障了，包括向社保金領(lǐng)取者的付款,。這種情況很恐怖,，因?yàn)橐S持良好的財(cái)務(wù)狀況，靠不付賬單顯然行不通,。

????對美國政府來說,，逃避財(cái)務(wù)義務(wù)將對美元造成非常嚴(yán)重的影響,。

????加州大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家巴里?艾肯格林在博客網(wǎng)站Project Syndicate上發(fā)表了一篇文章，討論了全球儲備貨幣美元違約會產(chǎn)生的影響,，即：美元大幅貶值以及金融機(jī)構(gòu)嚴(yán)重虧損,。

????艾肯格林說：“即使美國財(cái)政部優(yōu)先償付債券持有人，也就是選擇先把承包商和社保金領(lǐng)取者晾在一旁,，美國國債投資者也不再會理所當(dāng)然地認(rèn)為美國政府肯定會還錢的,，他們會認(rèn)真考慮了?！?/p>

????事實(shí)上,，各國中央銀行已經(jīng)對全球最富有的國家美國失去信心了，他們正在采取預(yù)備措施,，防范美國會像部分人士擔(dān)心的那樣隨時違約,。美元一旦下跌，影響會波及全球,，小國貨幣的匯率將紛紛出現(xiàn)暴漲,。同時，新興市場經(jīng)濟(jì)體也將受到打擊,，因?yàn)轫n元和墨西哥比索等新興市場貨幣會大幅升值,，導(dǎo)致它們出口海外的商品價格更貴，競爭力更低,。

????后果聽起來十分嚴(yán)重,，但華盛頓的某些政客對此并不買賬，這也不難理解,。次債危機(jī)發(fā)生后,，市場普遍預(yù)計(jì)美元會大跌，但實(shí)際上根本沒跌,。艾肯格林表示,，隨著投資者瘋狂買入美國國債避險(xiǎn)，結(jié)果美元倒還出現(xiàn)了上漲,。一年后,，雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）破產(chǎn)了，不過美元依舊毫發(fā)未損,。

????但他指出,，如果美國違約，對美元的影響會截然不同,。違約發(fā)生后,，經(jīng)濟(jì)中流通的現(xiàn)金將出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重短缺，因?yàn)槊缆?lián)儲（U.S. Federal Reserve）用于在金融機(jī)構(gòu)之間轉(zhuǎn)移資金的電子網(wǎng)絡(luò)無法結(jié)算違約證券交易,?；刭徥袌鲆约坝擅绹鴩鴤鳛榈盅簱?dān)保的貸款將會凍結(jié),。

????In a long-awaited breakthrough, Congress is inching closer to a deal that would increase the nation's borrowing limit and end a two-week-old government shutdown. The U.S. may just barely miss a default days before the U.S. Treasury exhausts its ability to borrow, but the sigh of relief could be short lived.

????As the Washington Post reports, the Senate's Republican caucus is scheduled to meet at 11 a.m. Tuesday to consider an emerging deal, which if finalized, could extend the Treasury's borrowing power until Feb. 7, reopen the government, and fund federal agencies through mid-January. Months from today, it wouldn't be surprising if Congress stalls over the debt ceiling again. Only next time the U.S. may not be so lucky, and the latest debt ceiling debacle offers a good glimpse as to why.

????Unlike during the political gridlock in 2011 when the U.S. lost its stellar credit rating from Standard & Poor's, some lawmakers (Republicans, in particular) have been downright blasé about it all this time around.

????They've been playing down the significance of hitting the debt limit -- Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky says the U.S. can avoid default by putting aside funds to pay bondholders. That may sound fine at first, but it effectively suggests other expenses, such as payments to Social Security recipients, could take a back seat. That would be scary because not paying your bills obviously isn't a good way to get yourself in good financial condition.

????And for the U.S. government to skip its financial obligations would be catastrophic for the U.S. dollar.

????In an article in Project Syndicate, University of California economist Barry Eichengreen lays out the implications of a default on the world's reserve currency. The result would be a sharp drop in the dollar combined with huge losses for financial institutions.

????"Even if the Treasury paid bondholders first -- choosing to stiff, say, contractors or Social Security recipients -- the idea that the U.S. government always pays its bills would no longer be taken for granted," says Eichengreen, who writes frequently about the demise of the dollar. "Holders of U.S. Treasury bonds would begin to think twice."

????Already, the world's central banks are losing faith in the world's richest country; officials are preparing for a U.S. default some say could happen at any time. The dollar's decline would be felt across the world, causing the value of smaller currencies to spike. It would also hurt emerging market economies, causing currencies from South Korea to Mexico to shoot up and therefore make whatever they sell abroad more expensive and much less competitive.

????This sounds pretty awful, but it's easy to see why some folks in Washington aren't convinced. When the subprime-mortgage crisis hit, it was widely forecast that the greenback would tank, but that never happened. Eichengreen notes the dollar actually strengthened as investors scrambled for safety in U.S. Treasury bonds. That also happened a year later when Lehman Brothers went under.

????But a default would be different, he argues. There would be a serious shortage of cash circulating the economy, as the electronic network operated by the U.S. Federal Reserve to transfer funds between financial institutions isn't set up to settle transactions in defaulted securities. The repo market, loans offered against Treasury bonds, would freeze up.