????特斯拉汽車公司（Tesla Motors）的價(jià)值為什么會(huì)達(dá)到令人震驚,、難以置信、甚至有些不現(xiàn)實(shí)的149億美元（914.86億元人民幣）,，人們眾說紛紜,。

????我也有我的看法。

????上個(gè)季度特斯拉汽車虧損了4億美元（24.56億元人民幣）,，共售出S型轎車1.5萬輛,。這是這家公司的唯一產(chǎn)品，不過由于三輛S型轎車發(fā)生起火事故,，聯(lián)邦安全機(jī)構(gòu)已經(jīng)介入調(diào)查,。

????人們經(jīng)常用市盈率來衡量一只股票的價(jià)格。由于特斯拉汽車沒有盈利——至少上個(gè)季度沒有——因此無法計(jì)算它的市盈率,。

????有人說,，投資者追捧特斯拉汽車的原因是電動(dòng)汽車早晚會(huì)流行起來，就像智能手機(jī)一樣,。也有人認(rèn)為,，一家大型汽車制造企業(yè)正打算收購特斯拉汽車，摘取電動(dòng)汽車技術(shù)的果實(shí),，同時(shí)獲得政府的碳排放額度——所有汽車廠商都需要這樣的額度來抵消能耗較低車型所產(chǎn)生的影響,。

????我認(rèn)為特斯拉汽車的價(jià)值和史蒂夫?喬布斯留下的光環(huán)有很大關(guān)系，這和克里斯?安德森在《財(cái)富》（Fortune）雜志上發(fā)表的文章觀點(diǎn)類似,。喬布斯是硅谷的少年英才,。他跟人聯(lián)合創(chuàng)辦了蘋果公司（Apple），還在1980年帶領(lǐng)公司實(shí)現(xiàn)了上市,?？紤]到股票分割因素，當(dāng)時(shí)的發(fā)行價(jià)約為4美元,。目前,，蘋果公司的股價(jià)約為515美元，而且一度逼近700美元,。

????許多投資者仍在念叨，要是當(dāng)初只買進(jìn)蘋果公司的股票,，而且一直拿在手上,，那得掙多少錢。

????眾所周知,，喬布斯脾氣暴躁,，這和另一位業(yè)界明星,、特斯拉汽車創(chuàng)始人兼首席執(zhí)行官埃隆?馬斯克很像。很多很多人,，包括我在內(nèi),，都曾敦促喬布斯就Mac操作系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行大范圍授權(quán)，就像微軟（Microsoft）就MS-DOS系統(tǒng)對(duì)外提供授權(quán)那樣,。如果他這樣做了,，蘋果產(chǎn)品的克隆版本就會(huì)大行其道，就像個(gè)人電腦那樣,。

????就在喬布斯猶豫不決時(shí),，微軟的操作系統(tǒng)成了行業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。后來,，喬布斯被迫離開了蘋果公司,，但這只是他以勝利者的姿態(tài)重返這家公司的序曲。喬布斯的眼光很適合蘋果公司,，由此產(chǎn)生的回報(bào)就是,，現(xiàn)在蘋果公司價(jià)值4630億美元（28428.2億元人民幣），而微軟的價(jià)值為3090億美元（18972.6億元人民幣）,。

????現(xiàn)在的馬斯克和那時(shí)的喬布斯一樣斗志昂揚(yáng),。有些人認(rèn)為電動(dòng)汽車市場規(guī)模有限，要么質(zhì)疑特斯拉汽車采用的電池技術(shù),，要么把聯(lián)邦政府機(jī)構(gòu)的安全調(diào)查掛在嘴邊,，馬斯克從不向這些人低頭。據(jù)報(bào)道,，聯(lián)邦機(jī)構(gòu)正在調(diào)查的三起特斯拉S型轎車起火事故都是由于碰撞引起,。

????馬斯克已經(jīng)在Twitter上以及其他場合回應(yīng)說，許多車都會(huì)在發(fā)生交通事故后起火,。情況確實(shí)如此,，但截至目前還沒有關(guān)于日產(chǎn)（Nissan）的Leaf電動(dòng)汽車起火的報(bào)道，無論是在發(fā)生事故后,，還是在其他情況下,。日產(chǎn)公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至9月份,，聆風(fēng)電動(dòng)汽車在全球共售出了8.3萬輛,。

????從許多方面來看，馬斯克已經(jīng)成為科技領(lǐng)域中的第二個(gè)史蒂夫?喬布斯,。他才華橫溢,，工作勤奮，勇于挑戰(zhàn)傳統(tǒng)，而且不會(huì)欣然接受別人的愚蠢（看看誰和穆斯克意見不一）,。質(zhì)疑喬布斯的投資者都錯(cuò)過了蘋果公司股價(jià)飆升所帶來的機(jī)會(huì),，他們可能把特斯拉汽車看成彌補(bǔ)這個(gè)疏忽的一條途徑。

????現(xiàn)在買進(jìn)特斯拉汽車的投資者有可能在今后電動(dòng)汽車銷量上升時(shí),，或者某家大型汽車廠商決定全面收購特斯拉汽車時(shí)套現(xiàn),，從而大賺一筆。

????我對(duì)喬布斯的看法是錯(cuò)的,，他在計(jì)算機(jī)領(lǐng)域的眼光很正確,。但對(duì)于穆斯克，我不知道該怎樣判斷,，因?yàn)殡妱?dòng)汽車一直銷路不暢,。但我確實(shí)知道，就目前的股價(jià)而言,，特斯拉汽車的上升空間看來相當(dāng)有限,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????Theories abound as to how Tesla Motors could be worth a stunning, incredible, improbable $14.9 billion.

????I have my own.

????Tesla (TSLA) lost $400 million in its latest quarter, has sold a grand total of 15,000 Model S sedans, and is facing a federal investigation after three vehicle fires raised questions about its only model's safety.

????Stock price often is measured as a multiple of earnings per share. Since Tesla posted no earnings, at least in its latest quarter, it doesn't have a P/E or price to earnings ratio.

????Some say investors are bidding up Tesla because they're sure it's only a matter of time before electric vehicles catch on, like smartphones. Others are theorizing that a big carmaker is planning to buy tiny Tesla to avail itself of electric-vehicle technology and governmental clean-air credits that all automakers need to offset their relatively inefficient models.

????Similar to what Chris Anderson argues in Fortune, I believe the aura left by the late Steve Jobs has much to do with Tesla's value. Jobs was a Silicon Valley wunderkind who took Apple (AAPL), the company he co-founded, public in 1980 at about $4 a share, on a split-adjusted basis. Apple stock currently sells for about $515 a share and briefly has traded at nearly $700 a share.

????Lots of investors are still muttering about the money they "could have made" if they'd only bought Apple shares and hung on.

????Jobs was famously irascible, like another shining star of the business world, Tesla founder and chief executive officer, Elon Musk. Lots and lots of people, me among them, urged Jobs to license Apple's operating system broadly, as Microsoft had done with its MS-DOS system. Had he done so, Apple clones would have proliferated, just like PCs.

????Jobs balked, while Microsoft's (MSFT) system became an industry standard. Jobs was eventually forced out of his company, only to return in triumph. Jobs' vision was the right one for Apple. The payoff: Today, Apple is worth $463 billion, compared to Microsoft's $309 billion.

????Musk is as combative today as Jobs was then, challenging skeptics who say the market for electric vehicles is limited, who question Tesla's approach to battery technology or who point to the federal safety investigation. The Feds are investigating the three fires in Tesla Model S cars that are reported to have hit debris in the road.

????Musk has responded in Tweets and elsewhere that lots of cars catch on fire after road accidents. True, but so far no reports of fires to Nissan Leaf electric vehicles, in accidents or otherwise. Nissan reported global sales of 83,000 Leafs as of September.

????In many ways, Musk has stepped into the tech sector as a replacement for Steve Jobs. Musk is a brilliant, driven, iconoclast who doesn't suffer fools (read: those who don't agree with him) gladly. Investors who doubted Jobs and missed the spectacular run-up of Apple stock may see Tesla as a way to offset their missed opportunity.

????By buying Tesla shares now, investors could cash in handsomely down the road, when the share values soar due to a rise in electric vehicle sales -- or perhaps when a major automaker decides to acquire the entire company.

????I was wrong about Jobs; his vision for computing was valid. I don't know about Musk: Electric cars have been a tough sell.

????What I do know is that the upside for Tesla shares at their current price looks quite limited.