中移動入選基金經(jīng)理推薦的20大金股
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人力資源軟件公司Ultimate Software Ultimate Software Group不適合低價股搜索者,。這家公司為中小企業(yè)開發(fā)工資等人力資源軟件，5年來股價上漲了1100%,，2014年市盈率高達(dá)85倍。當(dāng)然,，作為成長型股票投資者,，蘇迪爾?南達(dá)也沒有以低價股為目標(biāo)。他認(rèn)為Ultimate Software蘊含著巨大潛力,，這家公司因此成為他的T. Rowe價格多元化小盤成長型基金（T. Rowe Price Diversified Small Cap Growth Fund，交易代碼：PRDSX）的五大重倉股之一,。此前,，南達(dá)已經(jīng)展示出了他在挑選優(yōu)質(zhì)股方面的水準(zhǔn)：他的基金規(guī)模為7.09億美元，5年來的年回報率為29.8%,，高于小盤股基金26.6%的平均水平。這家軟件公司過去5年的利潤年增幅高達(dá)45%,，南達(dá)看好它云服務(wù)的客戶粘度,，他認(rèn)為Ultimate Software在這方面的表現(xiàn)好于競爭對手,。此類人力資源軟件的普及率只有30%,，也就是說新用戶的潛力足夠大。南達(dá)說：“在可預(yù)見的時間內(nèi),，這家公司的收入增速有望超過20%,。隨著規(guī)模的擴大和利潤率的上升，盈利增速甚至?xí)M一步提速,。” --J.B. |
Ultimate Software Ultimate Software Group isn't a stock for bargain hunters. A developer of payroll and other human resources software for small and midsize businesses, it has seen its shares soar 1,100% over the past five years; they trade at a lofty 85 times projected 2014 earnings. Of course, as a growth investor, Sudhir Nanda isn't looking for cheap stocks. He believes Ultimate's potential is enormous, which is why it's a top-five holding in his T. Rowe Price Diversified Small Cap Growth Fund (PRDSX). Nanda has shown a knack for picking winners before: His $709 million fund has generated 29.8% annual returns over the past five years, vs. 26.6% for the average small-cap fund. Ultimate boasts gaudy 45% annual earnings improvement over the past five years, and Nanda loves the stickiness of its cloud-based services, which he considers better than those of rivals. Penetration for such HR offerings is only 30%, which means plenty of potential new customers. "The company can grow revenue greater than 20% for the foreseeable future," Nanda says. "Earnings will grow even faster as you scale up and get margin improvement." --J.B. |
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油罐駁船運營商Kirby 10年來大衛(wèi)?達(dá)里奧一直管理著Dreyfus機會型中盤價值基金（Dreyfus Opportunistic Mid Cap Value Fund,，交易代碼：DMCVX）,，年化回報率為9.7%,，高于晨星公司公布的同類基金8.8%的平均水平。他認(rèn)為美國制造業(yè)正進入繁榮期,，增長動力來自價格便宜而且供應(yīng)充足的天然氣燃料以及其他化工原料,。達(dá)里奧目前看好Kirby，后者完全符合這樣的主題,。2013年Kirby公司股價已經(jīng)大幅上漲,，但達(dá)里奧認(rèn)為它的上漲過程遠(yuǎn)未結(jié)束。Kirby是美國最大的油罐駁船運營商,，利用密西西比河及周邊水道運輸化工產(chǎn)品、石油,、汽油,，其中大部分都運往煉油廠和化工廠。北達(dá)科他州的油氣行業(yè)繁榮發(fā)展給Kirby帶來了好處,，它的駁船還將加拿大生產(chǎn)的石油運送到墨西哥灣地區(qū)的煉油廠,。上個季度Kirby的利潤增長了27%，對一只2014年預(yù)期市盈率為19倍的股票來說是個非常好的業(yè)績,。分析師預(yù)計,，今后5年該公司利潤每年將增長12%,。達(dá)里奧說：“展望未來，石油,、天然氣和液化天然氣的數(shù)量顯然會增多,，能消除瓶頸的公司將獲得巨額收益。因此,，對我們來說,，Kirby是個相當(dāng)簡單的供需概念股?！?--J.B. |
Kirby David Daglio David Daglio has run the Dreyfus Opportunistic Mid Cap Value Fund (DMCVX) for a decade, during which it has churned out 9.7% annualized returns, vs. 8.8% for its Morningstar category. He believes the U.S. is entering a manufacturing boom -- one fueled by cheap and plentiful natural gas and other chemical feedstocks. Daglio's current favorite holding, Kirby, fits squarely in that thesis. It has already been a big winner in 2013, but Daglio thinks its ascent is far from complete. Kirby is the largest tank barge operator in the U.S., using the Mississippi River and connecting waterways to transport chemicals, crude oil, gasoline, and more to refineries and chemical plants. Kirby has benefited from the North Dakota oil and gas boom, and its barges also move Canadian crude to Gulf Coast refineries. Last quarter Kirby's earnings rose 27% -- very good for a stock trading at 19 times estimated 2014 earnings. Analysts expect 12% a year earnings growth over the next five years. "As we look at the landscape, it's clear that we're going to have more oil, natural gas, and natural-gas liquids, and that the people who reduce bottlenecks are going to make a king's ransom," says Daglio. "So for us Kirby is a pretty simple supply-and-demand story."--J.B. |
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仲量聯(lián)行 約翰?羅杰斯的Ariel投資者基金（Ariel Investor Fund）有著230億美元的規(guī)模,，仲量聯(lián)行則是一家大型全球性房地產(chǎn)公司,，從事商業(yè)房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)營，券商融資,，同時還為投資者管理房地產(chǎn)投資,。二者有一定的相似性。羅杰斯長期持有仲量聯(lián)行,，后者的股價從2000年的13美元增至2007年的117美元,，隨后跌至20美元，最終回升到95美元,。羅杰斯的投資生涯最初也經(jīng)歷過一些起伏,，隨后則捷報頻傳,，5年來的平均回報率為31.2%，而標(biāo)普指數(shù)的回報水平為21.5%,。羅杰斯認(rèn)為,，全球商業(yè)房地產(chǎn)復(fù)蘇已進入“第四或第五個回合”。他對仲量聯(lián)行的資產(chǎn)管理業(yè)務(wù)特別樂觀,。他說,，隨著機構(gòu)投資者從股票向債券和其他資產(chǎn)擴展,，這項業(yè)務(wù)正在受益。目前仲量聯(lián)行的2014年預(yù)期市盈率為14倍,，但羅杰斯認(rèn)為,，它的利潤加速增長可將市盈率提高到近20倍，也就是說這家公司的股價有望達(dá)到140美元,。他說：“人們對這項業(yè)務(wù)的風(fēng)險和波動性的認(rèn)識超過了它在2013年的實際表現(xiàn)。他們在地域方面已經(jīng)實現(xiàn)了多元化,，已經(jīng)在亞洲有了大量業(yè)務(wù),，同時還增加了產(chǎn)品種類。我們認(rèn)為這只股票有巨大的上升空間?！?--J.B. |
Jones Lang LaSalle John Rogers There's a certain symmetry between John Rogers's $2.3 billion Ariel Investor Fund(ARGFX) and his pick, Jones Lang LaSalle, a global real estate giant that runs commercial properties, brokers financing, and manages property portfolios for investors. A longtime holding for Rogers, the stock soared from $13 a share in 2000 to $117 in 2007, then cratered to $20 before roaring back to $95. After some bumpy years of his own, Rogers has been on a roll, with a five-year average return of 31.2%, vs. 21.5% for the S&P. Rogers thinks we're in "the fourth or fifth inning" of a global commercial real estate recovery. He's especially optimistic about JLL's asset-management arm, which, he says, is benefiting as institutional investors diversify from equities and bonds and into real estate. The stock is trading at 14 times expected 2014 profits, but Rogers thinks the company's accelerating profit growth merits a P/E closer to 20, which could lift the stock to $140. "People perceive this business as riskier and more volatile than it really is in 2013," Rogers says. "They've diversified geographically -- they've got huge businesses in Asia -- and they've expanded their product offerings. We think there's enormous upside." --J.B. |
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美國合眾銀行 馬克?亨尼曼青睞本公司圣保羅總部附近的中西部企業(yè)并不僅僅是因為它們都具有核心地帶價值,。亨尼曼和威廉?弗萊爾斯從2006年起共同管理Mairs & Power成長型基金（Mairs & Power Growth,，交易代碼：MPGFX），今年亨尼曼開始獨掌大權(quán),。他喜歡自己所投資公司的平易近人。采用這樣的方法,，這只基金10年來的平均回報率為9.5%,，而標(biāo)普500指數(shù)的回報水平為7.7%。美國和眾銀行總部設(shè)在明尼阿波利斯,，亨尼曼很欣賞這家銀行拒絕追捧熱門話題——比如抵押貸款支持證券——的做法,，這讓它成為金融危機期間“美國表現(xiàn)最好的大型銀行”。他指出,，最近規(guī)模成了和眾銀行的優(yōu)勢：它擁有3500億美元資產(chǎn),，足以從規(guī)模經(jīng)濟中受益,，同時也可以避開針對那些最大金融機構(gòu)的資本金要求,。亨尼曼承認(rèn),，12倍的市盈率對金融股來說并不低,，但他指出,，和眾銀行為不良貸款計提準(zhǔn)備金的保守策略意味著人們實際上低估了它的盈利。即使不考慮8%的盈利增長預(yù)期,，亨尼曼還是認(rèn)為這家銀行目前的業(yè)績配得上18%的股價漲幅,。--S.M. |
U.S. Bancorp Mark Henneman It's not just shared heartland values that draw Mark Henneman to companies based in the Midwest, near his firm's St. Paul headquarters. Henneman, who has co-managed Mairs & Power Growth (MPGFX) with William Frels since 2006 and took the helm this year, likes easy access to his portfolio companies. That approach earned an average of 9.5% for 10 years, vs. 7.7% for the S&P 500. In the case of Minneapolis-based U.S. Bancorp, he got an intimate look at how its refusal to chase hot ideas -- think mortgage-backed securities -- made it "the best-performing large bank in America" through the crisis. These days, he argues, size gives U.S. Bank a leg up: With $350 billion in assets, it's big enough to benefit from efficiencies of scale, yet small enough to elude capital requirements imposed on the biggest institutions. Henneman admits a P/E of 12 doesn't look cheap for a financial stock, but he argues that U.S. Bank's conservative approach to reserving for underperforming loans means its earnings are effectively understated. Even before figuring in projected earnings growth of 8%, he thinks U.S. Bank's current performance justifies an 18% stock bump. --S.M. |
