????2013年,，我們對科技/互聯(lián)網(wǎng)行業(yè)的風(fēng)險投資取得了成功。在此,，我想談?wù)剬?014年的一些看法,，比如全球互聯(lián)網(wǎng)和移動行業(yè)的主要趨勢、風(fēng)投融資環(huán)境,、主要的成長型新興子行業(yè)以及公共市場,。

????2014年八大預(yù)言：

????1. 移動業(yè)務(wù)將繼續(xù)沖擊互聯(lián)網(wǎng)巨頭：人們對移動互聯(lián)網(wǎng)和電子商務(wù)的使用將加速，情況就連最樂觀的預(yù)言者也會感到意外,。舉例來說,，F(xiàn)acebook首席執(zhí)行官馬克?扎克伯格最近曾提到，該公司48%的日?；钴S用戶都通過移動設(shè)備登錄Facebook,。我相信，到2014年底這個數(shù)字將達(dá)到70%-75%,。同時,，我認(rèn)為大多數(shù)移動設(shè)備用戶及其增長將來自亞洲和拉美的發(fā)展中國家。

????2. Marketplaces 2.0將成為一大風(fēng)投重點(diǎn)：在美國,，當(dāng)我們回首2014年時,，我們會認(rèn)為這一年屬于那些雙邊市場。雙邊市場是指最終用戶在消費(fèi)的同時還對外提供服務(wù)或產(chǎn)品,。這些市場將讓全世界看到,，C2C正在不斷地讓電子商務(wù)領(lǐng)域變得平坦起來,，同時讓行業(yè)走勢具有非常強(qiáng)的防御性。我預(yù)計(jì),，就在三年之內(nèi),，租車網(wǎng)站Uber、手工藝品交易網(wǎng)站Etsy,、P2P貸款網(wǎng)站Lending Club和租房網(wǎng)站AirBnB這樣一些公司的總市值將很輕松地超過eBay,。這種趨勢將開啟“Marketplaces 2.0”時代到來的序幕。

????3. 個性化商務(wù)應(yīng)用將進(jìn)入成熟期：社交和移動網(wǎng)絡(luò)將通過簡單的消費(fèi)應(yīng)用繼續(xù)向企業(yè)領(lǐng)域滲透,。其中包括Dropbox,、Evernote和Prezi等許多應(yīng)用。首先是最終用戶偶爾用到了它們,，然后引起了企業(yè)的注意,。Box、Evernotex和Evernote等“輕量級工作流程”應(yīng)用將首發(fā)上市（或者在為IPO做準(zhǔn)備）,，從而讓規(guī)模較大的企業(yè)繼續(xù)注意到它們,。IT主管將在保證安全和控制IT基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施方面遇到越來越嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)，原因是大部分?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)將移動到云端,。同時,，隨著自攜設(shè)備上班（BYOD）越來越流行，數(shù)據(jù)分散度以及安全復(fù)雜性將大大提高,。

????4. EduTech和MOOC將沖擊傳統(tǒng)教育行業(yè)：多年來,，雖然教育市場的規(guī)模非常龐大，但對教育領(lǐng)域的投資總是不能帶來高額回報,，這一直讓風(fēng)投人士感到困惑,。不過，最近幾年的情況已經(jīng)證明,，新技術(shù)對教育行業(yè)的沖擊確實(shí)能帶來巨大商機(jī),，而且大規(guī)模退出也許就在眼前。隨著Coursera,、Udemy,、Udacity、Minerva和Lynda等公司的出現(xiàn),，我預(yù)計(jì)教育科技行業(yè)將在2014年蓬勃發(fā)展。我同時認(rèn)為,，2014年,，行動遲緩的現(xiàn)有傳統(tǒng)教育機(jī)構(gòu)，比如中小學(xué)和大專院校會說： “或許我們最好也應(yīng)該參與進(jìn)去”,。斯坦福大學(xué)（Stanford）和麻省理工（MIT）等起步較早的大學(xué)已經(jīng)開始積極地推出在線課程,。

????5. 金磚四國的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)行業(yè)將看到一個光明的2014年：2008年金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)后，金磚四國（巴西、俄羅斯,、印度和中國）很難跟上美國的復(fù)蘇步伐,，也很難和硅谷生態(tài)系統(tǒng)實(shí)現(xiàn)同步發(fā)展。我認(rèn)為,，這種趨勢在2014年將淡化,，而金磚四國將再次傳出一些積極的消息。幾年來,，這四個國家不斷積累和趨于成熟的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)行業(yè)給人們留下了非常深的印象,，其中一些公司已經(jīng)準(zhǔn)備在2014年首發(fā)上市。我預(yù)計(jì),，2014年巴西足球世界杯將獲得成功（巴西隊(duì)甚至有可能奪得冠軍）,，從而有助于提升巴西的整體形象。巴西一些最引人注意的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司將利用這個契機(jī),，成為受益者,。印度的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)行業(yè)也在走向成熟，特別是考慮到今后幾年印度的中上階層預(yù)計(jì)將繼續(xù)急劇增長,。如果印度大選結(jié)果對業(yè)界有利,，就可能迎來更好的發(fā)展勢頭。人口結(jié)構(gòu)年輕以及智能手機(jī)越發(fā)普及也讓印度受益,。出現(xiàn)了一段時間的波動并受到一些干擾后,，中國也將重新獲得一定的增長動力。經(jīng)歷了幾個表現(xiàn)平平的年份后,，我們將看到中國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)行業(yè)趨于穩(wěn)定,，投資者也會慢慢重新回到中國。2013年10月份去哪兒網(wǎng)（qunar.com）首發(fā)上市刺激了人們的投資欲望,，同時預(yù)示著大型IPO即將到來,。阿里巴巴（Alibaba）的超大規(guī)模首發(fā)上市預(yù)計(jì)將重新激活風(fēng)險投資和公共股權(quán)投資活動，同時可能帶來中國所需要的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn),。

????As we end a successful 2013 for the tech/Internet venture world, I wanted to share some thoughts on what may be coming in 2014 as it relates to major global Internet & mobile trends, the venture capital funding environment, major emerging subsectors of growth, and the public markets.

????Top 8 predictions for 2014:

????1. Mobile will continue to disrupt Internet incumbents: Mobile Internet and e-commerce adoption will accelerate and surprise even the most bullish predictors. For example, Facebook (FB) CEO Mark Zuckerberg recently mentioned that 48% of its Daily Active Users log in via mobile. I believe this number could reach 70%-75% by the end of 2014. Also, I predict that much of this usage and growth will come from developing countries in Asia and Latin America.

????2. Marketplaces 2.0 will thrive as a mega venture category: In the U.S., we will look back at 2014 as the year of the two-sided marketplaces. Two-sided marketplaces are ones where end users participate in supplying the service or product as well as consuming it. These marketplaces will show the world that consumer-to-consumer commerce continues to flatten the world of e-commerce, while creating very defensible business dynamics. I predict that within just three years, the market caps of companies like Uber, Etsy, Lending Club, and AirBnB will together easily surpass eBay's (EBAY) market cap. This dynamic will give way to the birth of the "Marketplaces 2.0" era.

????3. Consumerized Business Applications will come of age: The social and mobile web will continue to penetrate the enterprise via simple consumer applications. These are applications like Dropbox, Evernote, Prezi, and many others that happen to be adopted by end users first before the enterprise takes notice. Box, Evernote, Dropbox, and several other "lightweight workflow" applications will IPO (or prepare for an IPO), and this will make the bigger enterprise players continue to take notice. IT directors will be increasingly challenged to maintain security and control of their IT infrastructure given much of their data is flowing to the cloud. Also, as BYOD (bring your own device) continues to proliferate, data will continue to become much more distributed and security will get much more complex.

????4. EduTech and MOOC's will disrupt traditional education: For many years, venture capital investors have been puzzled by the fact that investments in education have not delivered large returns, even though the size of the markets are very large. However, over the last few years, education disruption via new tech has now proven a real big business, and large exits may be in the wings. With the emergence of companies like Coursera, Udemy, Udacity, Minerva, Lynda, and others, I predict edutech will thrive in 2014. I also believe that 2014 will be the year that slow-moving incumbent educational institutions like the traditional K-12 and post secondary educational institutions will say "We better get our head in the game or else." Progressive universities like Stanford and MIT are already being aggressive at creating online offerings.

????5. The BRICs Internet sector will see a bright 2014: After the financial crisis of 2008, the BRICS -- Brazil, Russian, India, and China -- struggled to keep pace with the U.S. recovery and with the Silicon Valley ecosystem. I think this trend will abate in 2014, and the BRICs will once again capture some positive headlines. Brazil, Russia, India, and China all have been developing and maturing very impressive Internet properties in the last few years, and some of those will be ready to hit the IPO market in 2014. I predict Brazil will successfully host the World Cup next year (and perhaps even win it) and this will help bolster its overall image. Several of Brazil's most interesting Internet companies will take advantage of this momentum and benefit. India's Internet sector is also coming of age, especially when considering the fact that India's upper and middle class are predicted to continue to grow dramatically in the coming years. Pro-business election results in India could also bolster momentum. India also benefits from a young population with increasing access to smartphones. China will also regain some momentum after a period of stumbles and some distrust. After several mediocre years for the Chinese Internet sector, we will see stabilization and investors will begin to reinvest slowly back into China. Qunar's (QUNR) IPO in October was an appetizer, and a leading indicator of the big meal to come. The upcoming mega-IPO of Alibaba is expected to reignite venture and public equity activity and could trigger a watershed event that China needs.