????人民幣升值歷程：去年,，人民幣兌美元?jiǎng)?chuàng)歷史新高,，匯率上升3%，達(dá)到了6.05元,。人民幣終于成功完成了長達(dá)八年的長跑,。2005年,，人民幣不再單一盯住美元,。之后，更加自由的人民幣升值了35%,。

????人民幣為什么升值,？

????2013年，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,，中國出口擴(kuò)大,。基本就是這些原因,。但中國的情況更加復(fù)雜,，因?yàn)橹袊胄幸恢睂θ嗣駧艑?shí)行嚴(yán)格的監(jiān)管，防范因人民幣升值過快造成貿(mào)易失衡,?！緭?jù)德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）披露，去年流入中國的凈資金為3,870億美元,?！恐劣诩夹g(shù)原因，雖然中國允許人民幣交易【投資者可以在芝加哥商品交易所（Chicago Mercantile Exchange）購買人民幣期權(quán)】,，但政府對這類交易實(shí)行嚴(yán)格限制,，因此，導(dǎo)致人民幣不可能每天出現(xiàn)大幅波動(dòng),。

????為什么說人民幣升值很重要,？

????北京大學(xué)（Peking University）光華管理學(xué)院（Guanghua School of Management）教授邁克爾?佩蒂斯曾堅(jiān)定地指出，中國正處于再平衡過程中,。人民幣升值對中國的未來至關(guān)重要,，但人民幣不能升值過快,，否則將危及中國的現(xiàn)狀。佩蒂斯表示,，中國必須允許人民幣升值,，以增加家庭收入相對GDP的實(shí)際價(jià)值。也就是說,，人民幣價(jià)值越高,，進(jìn)口消費(fèi)品的價(jià)格就越低——所有商品都將面臨一定的進(jìn)口成本。佩蒂斯說：“就算你只是（在北京）喝一杯中國茶,，也必須使用石油,、鋼鐵、卡車把茶從云南運(yùn)到北京,。所以我們始終離不開進(jìn)口,。”但另一方面,，人民幣價(jià)值越高,，中國出口商品便會(huì)逐漸喪失對海外消費(fèi)者的吸引力，因?yàn)閺?qiáng)勢的貨幣必將提高外國人購買中國商品的價(jià)格,。政府必須想清楚,，到底希望通過人民幣升值把多少財(cái)富從制造商轉(zhuǎn)移到普通家庭手中。佩蒂斯相信,，如果中國緩慢調(diào)整幣值,，中國的平衡做法將順利完成——中國出口商在失去海外客戶的同時(shí)，可以獲得新的國內(nèi)客戶,。但現(xiàn)在說這些還為時(shí)尚早,。佩蒂斯說：“誰也不知道這到底是否是正確的節(jié)奏,，不過看起來會(huì)相當(dāng)成功,。”

????人民幣升值還有哪些重要影響,？

????人民幣升值對中國和世界都非常重要,。不妨問問美國那些在選區(qū)有制造商的政客。但我們可能忽視了更重大的問題,。更重要的并不是人民幣最終升到多高,，而是中國能否解決另外一個(gè)嚴(yán)重的財(cái)務(wù)問題：超高的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)。本月早些時(shí)候,，喬治?索羅斯在辛迪加項(xiàng)目（Project Syndicate）專欄發(fā)表文章,，談到了自己對中國債務(wù)問題的看法。他表示,，2012年,，中國央行采取措施遏制過度放貸,，結(jié)果導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)低迷。所以,，2013年,，中國央行放松了對貸款的限制，經(jīng)濟(jì)馬上就出現(xiàn)了好轉(zhuǎn),。他寫道：“中國現(xiàn)行政策存在尚未解決的自相矛盾之處,。重新開動(dòng)煉鋼爐將導(dǎo)致債務(wù)大幅增加。這種增長模式也許只能持續(xù)幾年時(shí)間,?！逼浯危袊恼魏徒?jīng)濟(jì)改革必須有效改變現(xiàn)狀,。人民幣未來的走向?qū)⑷Q于中國所選擇的道路,。

????What happened: Last year China's currency reached an all-time high against the dollar, gaining 3% to hit 6.05 yuan per dollar. It capped a nice eight-year run since 2005, when the currency finally dropped its strict peg to the dollar. Since then, the liberalized yuan has risen by 35%.

????Why the rise?

????The global economy grew, and Chinese exports expanded in 2013. That's it, more or less. But it's never so easy in China because the central bank keeps tight control over the yuan by basically preventing trade imbalances from driving up the yuan's value too much. (China adsorbed net inflows of 387 billion U.S. dollars last year, according to Deutsche Bank.) For technical reasons, China allows the yuan to trade (you can buy yuan futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange), but strict limits are imposed so the currency can't move dramatically day to day.

????Why it matters

????China is in the middle of a rebalancing act, as Michael Pettis, professor of finance at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, has eloquently pointed out. The yuan's rise is important to China's future, but it can't rise so fast that it imperils China's present. Pettis says the country must let the yuan's value increase so that the real value of household income relative to GDP expands. That is, the higher the yuan's value, the lower the price of imported consumer goods -- and all goods face some kind of import cost. "Even if you're drinking cup of Chinese tea [in Beijing], that had to be transported from Yunnan using oil, steel, trucks, so you're always importing," Pettis says. The flipside is, the more the yuan rises, the less attractive China's exports become to overseas buyers, because a strong currency increases the price foreigners pay for Chinese goods. The government must decide how much wealth it wants to transfer from manufactures to households by letting the yuan rise. Pettis believes if China revalues slowly, the balancing act will play out smoothly -- Chinese exporters gain new domestic customers as they lose overseas ones. But it's too early to say if that's happening. "Who knows whether this is the right pace or not," says Pettis, adding, "It seems to be reasonably successful."

????What else really matters?

????The yuan's rise is important to China and the world. Just ask any politician in the U.S. who has manufacturers in their district. But what if we're missing the bigger picture, which is not how high the yuan will eventually rise, but rather, can China rebalance another major financial concern: theextreme loads of debt in its economy. George Soros gave his take on China's debt problems earlier this month in a Project Syndicate column. He said when China's central bank took measures to curb excesses in 2012, the economy showed distress. So in 2013 it eased credit, and poof, the economy picked up. "There is an unresolved self-contradiction in China's current policies," he wrote. "Restarting the furnaces also reignites exponential debt growth, which cannot be sustained for much longer than a couple of years." After that, China's political and economic reforms have to kick in and improve the situation. The yuan's moves will likely be consequences of the path China chooses.