????最近這些天,，閱讀中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)新聞可能會(huì)扭傷你的脖子,。某個(gè)月，懷疑論者高舉虛弱的工業(yè)產(chǎn)出數(shù)值,，驚呼“中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)即將崩潰,！”下個(gè)月又輪到樂(lè)觀主義者大肆慶賀中國(guó)GDP增長(zhǎng)7.7%這樣的向好數(shù)據(jù)。

????中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)前后搖動(dòng)的最新跡象是近期的一波股票拋售潮,。過(guò)去幾個(gè)月,，中國(guó)股市下跌了15%，跌幅是其他新興市場(chǎng)的兩倍,，似乎是股票交易者發(fā)出的恐慌信號(hào)。他們擔(dān)心中國(guó)可能無(wú)法抵御即將到來(lái)的挑戰(zhàn),，包括收緊失控的信貸,，大規(guī)模的經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型，也就是擺脫對(duì)龐大的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目的依賴(lài),，走上一條更具可持續(xù)性的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展之路,。

????過(guò)去六個(gè)月的中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)報(bào)告時(shí)好時(shí)壞，但它們總體上在暗示,，烏云就在前方,。本文試圖逐一解析各項(xiàng)經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)的近期走勢(shì)，一窺中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)目前的狀況及其未來(lái)的發(fā)展方向,。

采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)

????半年前,，中國(guó)的采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù) (PMI，這是衡量一國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力的重要指標(biāo)之一)沖上16個(gè)月以來(lái)的最高點(diǎn),。經(jīng)歷了兩個(gè)令人失望的季度之后,，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)似乎正在趨穩(wěn)。來(lái)自PMI的好消息提振了市場(chǎng)的信心,，促使人們相信習(xí)近平主席和李克強(qiáng)總理領(lǐng)銜的中國(guó)新一代領(lǐng)導(dǎo)集體有能力應(yīng)對(duì)猖獗的影子銀行體系和銀行超額放貸問(wèn)題,，同時(shí)又不至于扼殺經(jīng)濟(jì)增速。當(dāng)時(shí)的主要憂慮似乎是,，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)削減國(guó)債購(gòu)買(mǎi)規(guī)模的計(jì)劃到底會(huì)對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)造成多大的傷害,。

房地產(chǎn)

????緊跟在這份好心情之后的是一直延續(xù)到去年年末的房?jī)r(jià)瘋漲勢(shì)頭。去年12月份,，北京和廣州的房?jī)r(jià)同比上漲了近30%,。與此同時(shí),，一些三四線城市的房?jī)r(jià)開(kāi)始下跌。中國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)在出現(xiàn)了一道裂痕：最富裕的城市仍然紅紅火火,，而一些小城市已經(jīng)開(kāi)始趔趄,。“房?jī)r(jià)持續(xù)下跌意味著銀行將出現(xiàn)更多的不良貸款,，它們將不得不進(jìn)一步收縮貸款規(guī)模,，”清華-布魯金斯公共政策研究中心(Brookings-Tsinghua Center)代理主任、中國(guó)人民大學(xué)（Renmin University）經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授陶然這樣說(shuō)道,?！叭绻罱K出現(xiàn)信貸緊縮，房地產(chǎn)泡沫可能就會(huì)破滅,?！边@一幕可能會(huì)率先從小城市開(kāi)始，然后逐漸向大城市蔓延,。房?jī)r(jià)上漲對(duì)任何其它經(jīng)濟(jì)體而言都是經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面健康的體現(xiàn),，但在中國(guó)，飆漲的房?jī)r(jià)意味著,，房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)崩潰的幾率正在與日俱增,。

救助

????今年1月份，一位未透露身份的接盤(pán)人（很有可能是政府）救助了一個(gè)規(guī)模高達(dá)5億美元,、名為“誠(chéng)至金開(kāi)1號(hào)”(Credit Equals Gold No. 1)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資產(chǎn)品,。雖然中國(guó)避免了信托行業(yè)的第一起違約事件——根據(jù)上一次測(cè)算，專(zhuān)為有錢(qián)人尋找高息投資機(jī)會(huì)的中國(guó)信托業(yè)已經(jīng)發(fā)展到大約1.6萬(wàn)億美元的規(guī)?！⒉皇且粋€(gè)鼓舞人心的消息,。其他潛伏在暗處的不良投資是否也面臨著類(lèi)似的命運(yùn)？它是不是讓人聯(lián)想到貝爾斯登(Bear Stearns )旗下那兩只于2007年年中崩盤(pán),、暗示其他金融機(jī)構(gòu)存在同樣問(wèn)題的對(duì)沖基金,？

還是采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)

????二月初，中國(guó)的PMI指數(shù)下降到了50.5,，抵達(dá)6個(gè)月以來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)（PMI指數(shù)50為榮枯分水嶺,。大于50說(shuō)明經(jīng)濟(jì)在發(fā)展，小于50說(shuō)明經(jīng)濟(jì)在衰退）,。就在這些數(shù)字出爐前,，中國(guó)政府剛剛發(fā)布消息稱(chēng)，中國(guó)2013年GDP增速為7.7%,，依然令人印象深刻,。這個(gè)PMI數(shù)字非常可怕，因?yàn)樗A(yù)示著,，隨著中國(guó)收緊信貸,，同時(shí)逐漸擺脫對(duì)出口的依賴(lài)，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)有可能?chē)?yán)重放緩,。誰(shuí)都知道中國(guó)最終需要調(diào)整經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式,，但這個(gè)過(guò)程不一定會(huì)順利。不斷下降的PMI指數(shù)就是在提醒人們注意這一點(diǎn),。

股票拋售

????最后來(lái)談一談新興市場(chǎng)在過(guò)去幾個(gè)月的股票拋售浪潮：仔細(xì)審視相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)之后,，德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)發(fā)現(xiàn)了一個(gè)發(fā)人深省的問(wèn)題。分析師重點(diǎn)研究了中國(guó)H股指數(shù)和A股指數(shù)之間的股價(jià)表現(xiàn)差異（H股在香港上市,，由全球投資者廣泛持有,；A股在大陸上市，不對(duì)外國(guó)人開(kāi)放）,。他們發(fā)現(xiàn),，在截止2月中旬的兩個(gè)月，A股指數(shù)僅下跌了6%,，而H股指數(shù)則下跌了16%,。這些分析師總結(jié)稱(chēng)，股市并不是在刻意懲罰中國(guó),，而是在懲罰所有其他新興市場(chǎng)時(shí)順帶著打壓了一下中國(guó),。他們寫(xiě)道，“對(duì)H股指數(shù)與A股指數(shù)跌幅相差10個(gè)百分點(diǎn)這一現(xiàn)象唯一有意義的解釋是,，全球投資者正在不加區(qū)分地拋售新興市場(chǎng)股票?！?/p>

????從許多指標(biāo)來(lái)看,，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)目前起伏不定，但股市多少讓我們對(duì)世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的前景抱有一絲樂(lè)觀情緒,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：葉寒

????You can get whiplash from reading the economic news coming out of China these days. One month the skeptics hold up weak industrial output and exclaim, "Crash ahead!" The next month, the bulls are back celebrating things like China's 7.7% GDP growth last year.

????The latest sign of China's economic to-and-fro was the recent stock selloff. Chinese shares dropped by 15% over the last couple months, doubling the decline of other emerging market shares, in what seemed like a panic signal from traders worried about China's ability to weather upcoming obstacles, including tightening runaway credit and undergoing a massive pivot away from huge infrastructure projects to more sustainable economic growth.

????The reports have been back-and-forth for the past six months, but overall they hint at some dark clouds ahead. Here, then, is a breakdown of the indicators' recent history, where the economy is now, and where it could be headed.

PMI

????Six months ago, China's Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, a key gauge of the economy's strength, was hitting 16-month highs. The economy looked to be stabilizing after a couple disappointing quarters. The PMI news boosted confidence that the country's new leadership in President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang could tackle rampant shadow banking and banks' excess-lending without killing growth. The chief concern back then seemed to be how much the Fed's cutback in bond purchases, or tapering, would hurt China's economy.

Real estate

????The good spirits were followed by skyrocketing housing prices through the end of last year. Prices rose nearly 30% year over year in December in Beijing and Guangzhou. At the same time, prices in some of the country's smaller third- and fourth-tier cities fell. There's now a break in the market: China's most affluent cities are still booming while smaller ones are starting to falter. "If they continue to drop, that will mean banks will have more nonperforming loans, and they will have to further contract lending," says Ran Tao, Acting Director at Brookings-Tsinghua Center in Beijing and professor of economics at Renmin University. "Finally, if there's a credit crunch, the housing bubble may burst." That could start in the smaller cities, and then make its way to the bigger ones. Rising real estate prices can be healthy for any economy, but in China they're rising so fast that the odds of a crash are growing with them.

Bailouts

????In January, an unnamed source -- most likely the government -- bailed out a $500-million risky bank investment called Credit Equals Gold No. 1. While China averted the first default in its trust industry-- an industry that last measured around $1.6 trillion in size and is tailored for rich people searching for high-interest investments -- the news wasn't encouraging. What does it say about other bad bets lurking in the shadows? Was this reminiscent of two Bear Stearns hedge funds blowing up in mid-2007, which intimated problems elsewhere in the financial system?

PMI, again

????In the beginning of February, China's PMI fell to 50.5, a six-month low (above 50 signals growth). The numbers came just after the news that China posted still-impressive 7.7% GDP growth in 2013. The PMI number was scary because it portended a potential deep slowdown as the country tightens credit and shifts away from a reliance on exports. Everyone knows China eventually needs to shift its economy, but that process won't necessarily be smooth. The falling PMI was a reminder of that.

Stock selloff

????And about that emerging markets selloff the past couple months: Deutsche Bank took a closer look at the figures and found something revealing. The analysts focused on the difference between the stock performance of China's H share index and A share index -- the difference being that H shares are listed in Hong Kong and widely held by global investors, whereas A shares are listed in the mainland and not open to foreigners. What they found was that during the two months leading to mid-February, the A share index fell only 6% while the H shares dropped 16%. They concluded that the stock market wasn't punishing China, but throwing it out with all the other emerging markets. They wrote, "The only meaningful explanation for the 10% under performance of the H share index is the indiscriminate selling of emerging market equities by global investors."

????The stock market offers some optimism for the Chinese economy facing plenty of other ups and downs.