????讓歐元區(qū)這樣的大經(jīng)濟(jì)體進(jìn)行負(fù)利率實(shí)驗(yàn)，這是經(jīng)濟(jì)政策書呆子的夢想,。

????雖然對于我們中的一些人,，觀察這個政策實(shí)驗(yàn)逐漸展開很有意思，但令人沮喪的現(xiàn)實(shí)是,，通過增加資金閑置成本以鼓勵銀行發(fā)放更多貸款的做法絲毫沒有解決歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)體的根本問題,。

????高頻經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)（High Frequency Economics）首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家卡爾?溫伯格在給客戶的報(bào)告中犀利地指出：“我們不認(rèn)為，降息會讓經(jīng)濟(jì)有所不同,。目前不存在信貸緊縮,，因?yàn)橘J款需求不足，需要通過降低借貸成本刺激貸款需求,。而且,，銀行由于擔(dān)憂資本充足率，也不愿意放貸,?！?/p>

????換句話說，那些支撐歐盟經(jīng)濟(jì)的歐洲大銀行仍然承受著金融危機(jī)的傷痛,，而且無論利率多少,，它們的狀況還沒有好到可以擴(kuò)大借貸規(guī)模。而且,，歐元區(qū)中一些國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況如此糟糕,，以至于根本沒有貸款需求。而且,，就算有,，也沒有信譽(yù)度足夠好的借款人能讓銀行發(fā)放貸款。

????舉例來說,，西班牙失業(yè)率超過25%,，而西班牙經(jīng)濟(jì)經(jīng)歷兩年收縮后，2013年底才恢復(fù)到非常虛弱的增長,。希望小幅降息能刺激一個深度蕭條的經(jīng)濟(jì)體進(jìn)行放貸,，這樣的概率很低。與此同時(shí),，引發(fā)歐債危機(jī)的希臘經(jīng)濟(jì)依然最具代表性：經(jīng)濟(jì)和人口增長緩慢正令很多歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)體深陷尚未解決的債務(wù)陷阱,。對希臘進(jìn)行第三輪救助已在討論中,。這表明，無論歐洲政界如何粉飾這個問題,，希臘經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長速度仍然不足以降低它的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān),。希臘政府旨在降低債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)的削減預(yù)算只會讓增長前景進(jìn)一步惡化。

????正如一位前財(cái)政部經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和對沖基金經(jīng)理最近所講的一樣,，“鑒于歐洲的人口結(jié)構(gòu),、杠桿和全球化力量...（歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)體）無法獲得必要的增長率來擺脫累積的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)?！?/p>

????那么,，到底什么才真正有助于扭轉(zhuǎn)局勢？

????首先,，溫伯格認(rèn)為,，央行從銀行和其他金融機(jī)構(gòu)購買資產(chǎn)這樣的量化寬松政策不會產(chǎn)生傷害?！百徺I資產(chǎn)這樣的量化寬松與那些基于回購的政策區(qū)別在于,，根據(jù)歐洲央行的計(jì)劃，（回購政策）增加儲備是可選項(xiàng)……而收購資產(chǎn)無論銀行是否愿意都可以向其注入儲備,?！?/p>

????歐洲央行行長馬里奧?德拉吉有可能會宣布量化寬松式的政策。正如我們從美國的經(jīng)驗(yàn)可以得知,，這并不是什么高招,。量化寬松可能對于降低利率很有效，但它不能迫使銀行在沒有盈利機(jī)會時(shí)進(jìn)行放貸,。

????但如果這樣的政策用于緩解政府預(yù)算壓力,，為更多政府支出掃清障礙，它至少可以提升貸款需求,，同時(shí)讓信貸再次流通,。但德國官員特別厭惡借助通過央行購買來為政府支出提供融資，因此,，這個政策實(shí)施的可能性依然很渺茫,。

????從當(dāng)前來看，歐盟經(jīng)濟(jì)仍然將繼續(xù)搖擺不定,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????It’s an economic-policy nerd’s dream: a major economy like the Eurozone is experimenting with negative interest rates.

????While it might be fun for some of us to watch policy experiments like this one unfold, the sad truth is that this move, which is aimed at encouraging banks to lend more by raising the costs of keeping money idle, doesn’t at all address the European economy’s underlying problems.

????Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, put it bluntly in a note to clients this morning, writing, “We do not believe the interest rate cuts will make a difference to the economy. Credit is not contracting because loan demand is insufficient and needs to be boosted by lowered borrowing costs. Rather, banks have not been lending because they are worried about capital adequacy.”

????In other words, the large European banks that anchor the EU economy are still hurting from the financial crisis and simply aren’t healthy enough to lend more, no matter where interest rates are. Furthermore, the economies of some countries in the union are in such poor shape that there isn’t demand for loans, and even if there were, there aren’t enough creditworthy borrowers for banks to lend to.

????To give an example, Spain’s unemployment is above 25%, while the Spanish economy only returned to very feeble growth late in 2013 after more that two years of contraction. There’s little chance that a small reduction in interest rates will spur lending in an economy that is this deeply depressed. Meanwhile, the Greek economy, which triggered the European debt crisis, remains a prime example of how slow economic and population growth are trapping many European economies in an as-yet-unsolved debt trap. There’s already talk of a third bailout for Greece, which proves that, regardless of the positive spin European officials put on the problem, that economy isn’t growing fast enough to reduce its debt burden. The Greek government budget cuts aimed at reducing the debt burden only makes the growth picture worse.

????As one former Treasury economist and hedge fund manager put it recently, “With the demographic profile of Europe, its leverage and forces of globalization … there’s no way for [European economies] to grow at the rate necessary for them to get out from under the debt burden they’ve built up.”

????So what would actually help turn things around?

????Weinberg, for one, believes a QE-type program, in which a central bank purchases assets from banks and other financial institutions, wouldn’t hurt. “The difference between QE implemented by buying assets and these repo-based measures is that the take-up of reserves is optional for banks under ECB programs … asset purchases inject reserves into banks whether they want them or not.”

????There’s a chance that ECB President Mario Draghi will announce a QE-like program. As we know from the experience in the U.S., they’re not a silver bullet. QE might be effective at lowering interest rates, but it can’t force banks to lend when there aren’t profitable opportunities to do so.

????If, however, such a program is used to relieve pressure from government budgets, paving the way for more government spending, that could at least help prop up demand for loans and get credit flowing again. But German officials in particular loathe to finance government spending with central bank purchases, so the likelihood of this happening is still remote.

????For the time being, the EU economy will continue to spin its wheels.