????從技術(shù)角度講,，這趟旅程還遠未結(jié)束,。計算機已經(jīng)從由人操控變?yōu)樗杏嬎銠C和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)云端相連，也就是所謂的“物聯(lián)網(wǎng)”,，就連最悲觀的行業(yè)分析師也必須承認,，這樣的轉(zhuǎn)變孕育著眾多新機遇。Dropcam,、GoPro和Nest的發(fā)展只是冰山一角,，但從中可以看到將來的趨勢。

????當然,，最強大的業(yè)界成員絕不會停滯不前,。

????早期風投已經(jīng)意識到需要利用這種趨勢，這就是為什么許多傳統(tǒng)風投公司在核心基金之外還設立了“機會型基金”,，其作用就是要更多地抓住私募市場（即上市前市場）的價值,。對于有限合伙人來說，機會型基金通常是更加經(jīng)濟的投資對象,。

????傳統(tǒng)風投業(yè)并沒有遭受滅頂之災——它得到了補充,。

????許多知名有限合伙人也已經(jīng)看到了“既定比例機遇”，并成立“直接投資實體”,，以便更迅速地獲得已經(jīng)納入其經(jīng)理人投資組合的公司既定比例的股份,。這種趨勢預計將持續(xù)下去。不過,，價值從公募市場轉(zhuǎn)向私募市場所引發(fā)的最強烈反應是把公募市場投資者推向私募市場,。上市公司的技術(shù)投資者在后期融資階段造成了競爭，如果愿意,，這些投資者可以變得對價格不那么敏感,。

????在私募市場獲取的價值還讓一些對沖基金和其他大型非私募市場投資者參與到后期風投中。其中有許多機構(gòu)都缺乏技能,、專注力,、經(jīng)驗和氣質(zhì)，無法成為優(yōu)秀而有耐心的私募市場長期投資者,。試圖在風投市場套用對沖基金思維無法讓人預見到什么好結(jié)果,。馬克?安德烈森的文章《毀掉高增長科技初創(chuàng)公司的十種方法》（10 Ways to Damage Your High-Growth Tech Startup）最近在Twitter上引發(fā)激烈探討，其中就談到了一些這樣的問題,。

????From a technology perspective, our journey is nowhere near over. Even the most somber of industry analysts must acknowledge that the shift from computers as devices controlled by humans to smart devices that are all computers connected to an Internet cloud — the so-called “Internet of Things” — is breeding massive new opportunities. Just see the growth of Dropcam, GoPro and Nest for the tip of the iceberg in what is to come.

????Of course, the strongest industry players don’t stand still.

????Early-stage VCs have realized that they need to capitalize on this trend, which is why many traditional VCs have set up “opportunity” funds that sit alongside their core funds as a means of capturing more private-market (pre IPO) value. Opportunity funds typically have better economics for the LPs who invest in them.

????Traditional VC isn’t being gutted — it’s being supplemented.

????Many prominent LPs have also recognized the “pro rata opportunity” and have set up “direct investment vehicles” themselves to take pro rata stakes in their managers portfolio companies. Expect this trend to continue. The biggest response to the public-turned-private value capture, however, has been the push for public market investors to move into the private sphere. Public-company tech investors creates competition in late-stage financings and these investors can afford to be less price sensitive if they choose.

????The value capture in the private markets has also led some hedge funds and other major non-private-market investors to become late-stage VCs. Many of these investors lack the skills, focus, experience and temperament to make great, patient, long-term, private-market investors. Trying to shoe-horn a hedge-fund mentality into venture capital markets cannot portend a happy outcome. Marc Andreessen captured some of this sentiment in his recent “10 Ways to Damage Your High-Growth Tech Startup” Tweetstorm.

????當科技市場不可避免地進入下一個下行周期后,，所有公募市場投資者都將重新?lián)炱鹱约旱娜粘９ぷ鳎⑶曳艞壷亟ê椭亟M剩下的那些資本過剩公司這項艱難任務,?；ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破裂后我們曾經(jīng)見識了這樣的場面，而這次的結(jié)果也不會有什么不同,。公募投資者把許多頭寸出售給了二級市場投資者,。如果某位同行并不真的打算解決問題,，就很難和他們一起確定相應的股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)。

????為什么風投公司會堅守崗位并在金融市場經(jīng)歷巨變時去解決問題呢,？因為這就是它們的工作,。如果我們想在雨過天晴之后和所有的風投界同行以及企業(yè)家共事，我們的聲譽就極為重要,。盡管我們有時候會激烈競爭,，但這種合作則互利的“博弈理論”將迫使風投行業(yè)展露更好的行為。

????在份額固定的權(quán)益持有者,、公司投資者和公募市場新生力量帶來的市場新趨勢作用下,，后期融資的價值陡然上升。對一個行業(yè)中的頂尖企業(yè)來說這或許不算什么,，但隨著人們競相參與他們所認為的絕佳融資活動,，“頂尖”的定義顯然會變得牽強起來。

????When the tech markets goes through their next inevitable bear cycle, every public market investor will return to their day jobs and abandon the hard work of rebuilding and restructuring the remaining over-capitalized companies. We saw this movie already after the dotcom collapse and the sequel will be no different. Publics sold many of their positions to secondary investors. It’s hard to work out the cap table with your peers when one of them has no real intent in fixing the problem.

????Why do VCs stick around and fix problems in a massively changing financial market? Because this is all VCs do, and if we intend to work with all of our fellow VCs and entrepreneurs when the rain ends and the sun shines again, our reputations matter greatly. This “game theory” of mutual interests in collaboration — even as we occasionally compete fiercely — is what forces better behavior in our industry than otherwise might exist.

????The result of these new market trends of pro rata takers, corporate investors and public market entrants has led to a sharp spike in the valuations of late-stage financings. While this might not matter for the industry’s best companies, the definition of what is “best” will clearly be stretched as people compete to get in on perceived great deals.