????美國(guó)公司正在大手筆下注非洲。

????在華盛頓召開(kāi)的,、為期3天的美非高峰論壇（U.S.-Africa summit）開(kāi)幕式上,，美國(guó)總統(tǒng)奧巴馬宣布,，美國(guó)公司已承諾在“清潔能源,、航空、銀行和建筑”領(lǐng)域新增140億美元投資,。

????鑒于過(guò)去10年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)最快的10個(gè)國(guó)家中有7個(gè)來(lái)自非洲,，美國(guó)政府和公司打算投資非洲合情合理。周四的聲明代表著美國(guó)參與非洲地區(qū)建設(shè)又向前邁進(jìn)了一步,，但與中國(guó)相比,，仍相形見(jiàn)絀,，特別是考慮到美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模仍相當(dāng)于中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的兩倍。

????就在上次金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)時(shí),，中國(guó)超越美國(guó)成為了非洲最大的貿(mào)易伙伴,，自那以來(lái)中非貿(mào)易持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。相比之下,，美非貿(mào)易則停步不前,，正如下圖所示。圖表來(lái)自布魯金斯學(xué)會(huì)（Brookings Institution）專注于中非關(guān)系的研究員孫云（Yun Sun）制作,。

????U.S. companies are betting big on Africa.

????Kicking off a three-day U.S.-Africa summit in Washington, D.C., President Obama announced that U.S. companies have committed $14 billion in new investments in “clean energy, aviation, banking, and construction.”

????It makes sense that the U.S. government and American firms would want to invest in Africa, given that it is home to 7 of the 10 fastest growing economies in the world over the past 10 years. But while Thursday’s announcement represents a step forward for American engagement in the region, it pales in comparison to what China is doing, especially when you take into account the fact that the U.S. economy is still twice as large as China’s.

????China surpassed the U.S. as Africa’s largest trade partner right around the time of the financial crisis, and trade between China and Africa has increased ever since. Trade between Africa and the U.S., on the other hand, has stagnated, as you can see in the chart below from Yun Sun, a fellow at the Brookings Institution who focuses on China’s relations with Africa.

????考慮到中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的質(zhì)量,，很難衡量中國(guó)公司通過(guò)建設(shè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施或購(gòu)買資產(chǎn)在非洲進(jìn)行了多少直接投資，但據(jù)美國(guó)政府問(wèn)責(zé)局（U.S. Government Accountability Office,，GAO）去年的一份報(bào)告估計(jì),，美國(guó)公司在此類投資中仍領(lǐng)先于中國(guó)公司，但僅略微領(lǐng)先,。2007年至2011年,，美國(guó)在撒哈拉以南非洲地區(qū)的投資僅比中國(guó)多了23%，但GAO自己也懷疑,，其估算值可能低估了中國(guó)在非洲大陸的投資,。

????但是，對(duì)于一些有關(guān)非洲發(fā)展的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)說(shuō)法,，奧巴馬并不認(rèn)可,。本周接受《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》（The Economist）采訪時(shí)，奧巴馬圍繞中國(guó)在非洲的角色所給出的觀點(diǎn)遠(yuǎn)比普通美國(guó)政客成熟：

????Given the poor quality of Chinese economic data, it’s more difficult to measure how much Chinese firms invest directly in Africa through building infrastructure or purchasing assets, but a U.S. Government Accountability Office report from last year estimated that U.S. firms still lead their Chinese counterparts in this kind of investment, but just barely. The U.S. only invested 23% more than China in Sub-Saharan Africa from 2007 through 2011, and the GAO suspects that even its approximation might be underestimating Chinese investment in the continent.

????Obama, however, has dismissed the notion of some sort of competition for the business of African development. In an interview this week with The Economist, the president showed a much more sophisticated view of China’s role in Africa than American politicians typically display:

????“我的觀點(diǎn)是多多益善,。我在非洲時(shí)常常會(huì)被問(wèn)到中國(guó)的問(wèn)題,，我的態(tài)度是，應(yīng)當(dāng)歡迎每一個(gè)看到投資機(jī)會(huì)并愿意與非洲各國(guó)合作的國(guó)家,。但要注意確保非洲政府與任何合作方達(dá)成的是一樁好的交易,。這適用于美國(guó)，也適用于中國(guó),?！?/p>

????與之產(chǎn)生鮮明對(duì)比的是，奧巴馬在經(jīng)常談到需要“通過(guò)在教育,、創(chuàng)新和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)方面趕超印度人和中國(guó)人來(lái)贏得未來(lái)”時(shí)的言辭,。不只是奧巴馬政府喜歡將中國(guó)描繪為競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者而非協(xié)作者、在競(jìng)選季和國(guó)情咨文（State of the Union）等備受關(guān)注的活動(dòng)中,，美國(guó)政客都傾向于以毫不掩飾的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性詞語(yǔ)來(lái)描述這個(gè)世界,。但奧巴馬看起來(lái)明白一點(diǎn)：這世界要比一場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)足球賽復(fù)雜不少。前述講話表明,，他相信非洲經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展有利于美國(guó),，即便不是美國(guó)公司在做這些開(kāi)發(fā),，經(jīng)濟(jì)充滿活力的非洲將成為極好的美國(guó)出口市場(chǎng)。

????中國(guó)已經(jīng)接觸美國(guó),，在非洲合作建設(shè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目,。

????盡然如此，美國(guó)公司仍可以增加在非洲投資,。研究顯示,，進(jìn)行海外投資的公司更可能在本國(guó)增加投入并創(chuàng)造就業(yè)崗位。而且,，美國(guó)公司可能會(huì)對(duì)擁有合作歷史的國(guó)家出口更多產(chǎn)品,。

????更為復(fù)雜的問(wèn)題是，所有這些投資真的對(duì)非洲有益嗎,？媒體對(duì)于中國(guó)參與非洲發(fā)展已談了很多,，盡管中非關(guān)系在規(guī)模上仍比較有限。正如布魯金斯學(xué)會(huì)的孫云在最近發(fā)布的白皮書中所講：

????“中國(guó)在非洲大規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)投入所引發(fā)的普遍關(guān)注……似乎表明,，非洲在某種程度上對(duì)于中國(guó)‘舉足輕重’,。實(shí)際上，非洲僅占中國(guó)總體海外經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的很小一部分：中國(guó)向非洲投資僅占其全球投資的3%,，中非貿(mào)易也只占其國(guó)際貿(mào)易的5%,。”

????而且,，這些投資和貿(mào)易主要集中在資源開(kāi)采行業(yè),。這一點(diǎn)對(duì)于美國(guó)也同樣適用：孫云指出，美非貿(mào)易近期下滑與美國(guó)能源產(chǎn)量激增更為相關(guān),。由于美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)更多的石油與天然氣,，它從非洲進(jìn)口的需求降低。但占非洲對(duì)外貿(mào)易大部分的此類資源開(kāi)采行業(yè)并非是那種通常會(huì)引領(lǐng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的行業(yè),。要發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì),，非洲國(guó)家必須把從這些行業(yè)獲得的利潤(rùn)重新投入到廣泛造福于民眾的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中去，并且?guī)椭徍蛷霓r(nóng)業(yè)向以制造業(yè)為基礎(chǔ)的經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)變,。

????這是荷蘭研究者在去年發(fā)布的《亞洲虎,，非洲獅》（Asian Tigers, African Lions）報(bào)告中提出的建議, 這項(xiàng)持續(xù)5年的廣泛研究調(diào)查了成功的東南亞國(guó)家和貧窮的非洲國(guó)家之間的發(fā)展差異。研究者發(fā)現(xiàn),，亞洲發(fā)展模式致力于逐步增加貧窮農(nóng)村地區(qū)的投資,，幫助民眾慢慢提高農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)力，解放部分民眾尋求教育機(jī)會(huì),，最終離開(kāi)農(nóng)村到經(jīng)濟(jì)更為活躍的地區(qū),。

????“My view is the more the merrier. When I was in Africa, the question of China often came up, and my attitude was every country that sees investment opportunities and is willing to partner with African countries should be welcomed. The caution is to make sure that African governments negotiate a good deal with whoever they’re partnering with. And that is true whether it’s the United States; that’s true whether it’s China.”

????This is in stark contrast with the sort of rhetoric that the president himself has used, as he has often talked about the need to “win the future” by out-educating, out-innovating, and out-competing the Indians and the Chinese. And it’s not just the Obama Administration that likes to paint China as a competitor rather than a collaborator, as American politicians tend to describe the world in stark, competitive terms during election season and during high profile events like the State of the Union. But the president appears to understand that the world is a bit more complicated than an economic football game. The above quote suggests that he believes that African economic development would be good for America even if it’s not American firms doing the development, as a vibrant Africa could be an excellent destination for American exports.

????China, for its part, has approached the U.S. to work in tandem on infrastructure and development projects in Africa.

????That being said, it would behoove Americans for U.S. companies to invest even more in Africa. Studies show that firms that invest abroad are more likely to spend money and create jobs at home as well. Furthermore, American companies are likely to export more to countries with which they already have a history of partnership.

????The more complicated question is whether all this investment is actually good for Africans. There has been much made in the press about China’s involvement with Africa, even though the relationship is still rather limited in scope. As Brookings’ Yun Sun wrote in a recent white paper,

????“The popular focus on China’s vast economic endeavors in Africa … seems to suggest that Africa is somehow ‘critical’ for China. In reality, Africa accounts for only a tiny percentage of China’s overall foreign economic activities: China’s investment in and trade with Africa represents 3 percent and 5 percent of its global investment and trade, respectively.”

????And this investment and trade is focused mainly in the resource-extraction industries. This is also true for the U.S.: Sun points out that the recent decline in trade between the U.S. and Africa has much more to do with the explosion in U.S. energy production than anything else. Since the U.S. is producing much more of its own oil and natural gas, it has less of a need to import it from Africa. But resource-extraction industries of the sort that make up most of Africa’s foreign trade aren’t the kind that usually lead to economic development. To do this, African nations must reinvest the profits coming from these industries into infrastructure and economic development that will broadly benefit its population and help ease the transition from agricultural to manufacturing-based economies.

????This is the advice that Dutch researchers offered in an extensive five-year study released last year called Asian Tigers, African Lions, which looked at the differences in development between successful Southeast Asian countries and poor African ones. The researchers found that the Asian model of development focused on making incremental investments in poor rural areas that allowed populations to slowly improve agricultural productivity, which then freed the population to seek educational opportunities and ultimately leave rural areas for more economically vibrant regions.