????十年前,，谷歌（Google）進(jìn)行了首次公開募股。那時,，我認(rèn)為這里面充滿了虛夸成分,，并把所有購買谷歌股票的人稱為“傻蛋”。我還特意在我為《Money》雜志撰寫的文章中單獨加了一段文字,，并以“我的建議”為題寫道“別碰這只股票”,。事實證明我錯了。

????實際上,，從始至終很少有誰給出的投資建議像我錯得這么離譜：只有著名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家歐文?費舍爾在1929年（大蕭條時期）曾稱股市前景一片光明,，之后便是我了。

????谷歌上市后的股價為50美元,，幾年后股票“一拆二”,。當(dāng)時我說他們股票的實際價值連這個數(shù)的一半都不到，大約在20美元左右——我當(dāng)時非?？隙ü雀韫蓛r將會暴跌到這個價格,。但是這種情況卻沒有發(fā)生,。

????十年后,，谷歌的股價為586美元，回報率高達(dá)約1084%,，是同期股市回報率的10倍,。如果那時你在谷歌投資了一萬美元的話，那么現(xiàn)在你的一萬美元就變成了118,400美元,，比你把錢投給標(biāo)普500所賺的還要多上97,000美元,。聽了我的你就虧了！

????為什么我對谷歌的判斷錯的這么離譜,？我能從這件事上學(xué)到什么嗎,？

????首先，試圖預(yù)估一家公司的確切股價是極其愚蠢的,。我之所以給出谷歌每股20美元的價格,，是因為我運用了那些華爾街和財經(jīng)專家所謂的現(xiàn)金流貼現(xiàn)模型,。我還向紐約大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授阿斯沃斯?達(dá)摩達(dá)蘭求教，因為他寫了一本如何給公司估值的書,。預(yù)估公司在以后十年間（因為試著預(yù)估更遠(yuǎn)的時間只能讓你顯得很蠢）盈利的總額,，然后參照未來通脹預(yù)期得出現(xiàn)金流當(dāng)前價值。這樣,，你很快就能算出谷歌或者其他任何公司的市值,。

????好吧，有好多方法可以把計算結(jié)果搞得一團(tuán)糟,，而我則都試了個遍,。我第一個失誤是，預(yù)估谷歌銷售額將會保持年均30%的穩(wěn)定增長,。在線廣告市場在不斷增長中,，因此我估計谷歌將會從中分一杯羹。但是我萬萬沒有想到的是,，谷歌得到的哪里只是一杯羹,，它得到的幾乎是全部。事實上,，谷歌的收入在過去十年間保持了年均50%的增長,。

????并且，我一度還認(rèn)為我很可能高估了谷歌的盈利能力,。我曾聲稱谷歌極有可能和網(wǎng)景公司（Netscape）一樣葬身于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的發(fā)展洪流中,。基于它當(dāng)時的盈利能力,，我預(yù)計谷歌最多能掙480億美元,，但我斷言這幾乎不可能實現(xiàn)。而且,，通貨膨脹將吞噬其大部分利潤。因此我用每年15%的折現(xiàn)率,，估算出這些利潤的價值約為150億美元,。

????這與事實相去甚遠(yuǎn)。谷歌在過去十年間的實際現(xiàn)金流超過900億美元,，并且通脹基本上不存在,。

????Ten years ago, I called anyone buying into Google’s much hyped IPO a “sucker.” My bottom line, which I helpfully broke out into a separate paragraph titled “My Advice” in my Money magazine article was “stay clear.” Man was I wrong.

????In fact, few investing calls, since the beginning of time, have been more wrong. Leading economist Irving Fisher calling stocks cheap in 1929. And then there’s me.

????Google’s shares started trading at $50, adjusted for a2-for-1 splita few years later. I said they were worth less than half that, around $20. And I was pretty sure they would soon nosedive to that price. They never did.

????A decade later, Google’s shares now trade for $586. That’s a 1084% return, roughly 10 times what the stock market did at the same time. If you had invested $10,000 in Google then, you would now have $118,400, or $97,000more than what you would had if you invested the same money in the S&P 500. You’re welcome!

????So why was I so utterly wrong about Google? Can I learn anything about investing from this call?

????First of all, trying to come up with an exact price for what a company is worth is the true suckers game. To come up with my $20 a share for Google, I used what Wall Streeters and finance professors call a discounted cash flow model. And I sought out the advice of New YorkUniversity economics professor Aswath Damodaran, who wrote a textbook about how to value companies, to do it. Estimate all the money you think a company is going to generate over the next decade (because try to estimate beyond that and you are bound to look pretty silly), and then figure out what, based on future inflation, that cash flow would be worth today. And presto, you will know what Google, or any company should be worth.

????Ok, so there were a number of ways to mess this up, and I did all of them. My first mistake was to assume that Google’s sales growth would be a stable 30% a year. Online advertising was increasing, and I figured Google would get a slice of that. What I didn’t understand was that Google wouldn’t just get a slice, but nearly all of it. As a result, Google’s revenue has grown an average of 50% a year over the past decade.

????Also, I thought there was a high probability that I was overestimating how profitable Google could be. I said there was a strong possibility that Google would end up with Netscape in the internet graveyard. Based on its current profitability, I said Google could earn $48 billion over its lifetime. But that, I said, was unlikely. What’s more, inflation would eat up the value of a lot of those profits. So I used a discount rate of 15%, per year, to figure out that the value of those profits was more like $15 billion.

????Not even close. Google’s actual cash flow over the past decade has been just over $90 billion, and inflation has been basically non-existent.