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巴菲特:我犯了一個(gè)1000億美元的大錯(cuò)誤

巴菲特:我犯了一個(gè)1000億美元的大錯(cuò)誤

Stephen Gandel 2015-03-03
巴菲特在最新的致股東信中說,如果當(dāng)年利用自己的對(duì)沖基金收購伯克希爾哈撒韋的保險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù),,自己和投資者就能把50年來自己創(chuàng)造的所有投資收益統(tǒng)統(tǒng)收入囊中,。但如果這位投資界傳奇當(dāng)時(shí)去做了對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理,還會(huì)有今天的伯克希爾哈撒韋,,還會(huì)有這50封精彩的年度致股東信嗎,?

????沃倫?巴菲特的身家已經(jīng)超過700億美元,。然而,在今年寫給伯克希爾哈撒韋公司股東的信中,,巴菲特說他犯過一個(gè)商業(yè)錯(cuò)誤,,他本人和投資者因此蒙受的損失可能遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過自己擁有的財(cái)富。

????今年是巴菲特及其投資合伙人決定獲取伯克希爾哈撒韋控制權(quán)50周年,。在今年的股東信中,,巴菲特講述了往事,并且回憶了自己收購這家公司的歷程,。當(dāng)時(shí),,這是一家陷入困境的紡織企業(yè),總部設(shè)在馬薩諸塞州貝德福德。除了講述這段經(jīng)歷,,巴菲特還透露了自己的兩大商業(yè)和投資錯(cuò)誤,,還說其中一個(gè)錯(cuò)誤讓自己和投資者損失了1000億美元。

????讓人意外的是,,巴菲特提到的第一個(gè)錯(cuò)誤是買下伯克希爾哈撒韋,。他說這次收購是個(gè)“極為愚蠢的決定”。巴菲特表示,,當(dāng)時(shí)自己知道這家公司陷入了困境,,而他進(jìn)行收購只是因?yàn)橛X得后者很便宜。在那個(gè)時(shí)候,,巴菲特的計(jì)劃是迅速鎖定收益并退出,,而且他差點(diǎn)這樣做。

????1964年5月份,,時(shí)任伯克希爾哈撒韋首席執(zhí)行官的西伯里?斯坦頓提出,,以稍低于承諾價(jià)格的水平回購自己在這家公司的股份。這讓當(dāng)時(shí)34歲的巴菲特很生氣,,盡管斯坦頓的報(bào)價(jià)仍能讓這筆為期兩年的投資給他帶來52%的回報(bào)率。巴菲特反其道而行之,,開始著手收購這家公司,,并于第二年5月和自己的合伙人控制了伯克希爾哈撒韋。

????這是一招錯(cuò)棋,。

????伯克希爾哈撒韋繼續(xù)苦苦掙扎,。為了讓這家紡織公司扭虧,巴菲特投入了大量資金,,但最終在20年后結(jié)束了伯克希爾哈撒韋的紡織業(yè)務(wù),。

????然而,巴菲特說自己最大的錯(cuò)誤出現(xiàn)在兩年后,。1967年初,,巴菲特收購了一項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù),后者就是伯克希爾哈撒韋保險(xiǎn)和投資業(yè)務(wù)的雛形,,并最終讓這家公司發(fā)展成為一個(gè)綜合商業(yè)帝國,。巴菲特把這項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù)并入了伯克希爾哈撒韋,也就是目前依然由他掌管的上市公司,。

????巴菲特說,,當(dāng)時(shí)自己仍然經(jīng)營著投資合伙對(duì)沖基金,如果通過這支基金收購此項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù),,50年來自己創(chuàng)造的投資收益就會(huì)統(tǒng)統(tǒng)進(jìn)入他和投資者的囊中?,F(xiàn)在,他卻要和伯克希爾哈撒韋的流通股股東分享這些收益。

????但人們很難將其看做是一個(gè)錯(cuò)誤,,也很難相信巴菲特真的對(duì)此感到后悔,。如果這位投資界傳奇當(dāng)時(shí)去做了對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理,那么他現(xiàn)在會(huì)是什么樣,?這個(gè)世界又會(huì)是什么樣,?這很難想象。而現(xiàn)在,,他是伯克希爾哈撒韋的掌門人,,后者已經(jīng)成為歷史上最成功的上市合伙投資公司。只要有錢,,任何人都能購買這家公司的股份并因此致富,。而且,如果巴菲特只是經(jīng)營對(duì)沖基金,,就可能不會(huì)有這50封年度致股東信,,巴菲特的智慧可能也不會(huì)呈現(xiàn)在眾人面前。與往常一樣,,今年這封信的內(nèi)容依然十分精彩,。

????今年的股東信題為《伯克希爾——過去、現(xiàn)在和將來》,,其特別章節(jié)中還有頗多的驚喜,,特別是對(duì)巴菲特的粉絲而言。如果不是巴菲特犯了這個(gè)1000億美元的錯(cuò)誤,,可能人們就難以讀到如此多的精彩信件了,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:Charlie

????審稿:李翔

????Warren Buffett is worth more than $70 billion. But in this year’s annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Buffett writes that he made a business mistake that may have cost him and his investors much more than that.

????This year marks the 5oth anniversary of Buffett and his investment partners’ decision to take control of Berkshire Hathaway. In this year’s letter to shareholders, Buffett takes a stroll down memory lane and recalls how he took over Berkshire Hathaway, which at the time was a struggling textile manufacturer based in Bedford, Mass. Along with that story, Buffett shares what he says were two of his biggest business and investment mistakes, one of which he claims cost him and his investors $100 billion.

????The first mistake Buffett mentions is, surprisingly, buying Berkshire. Buffett calls the actions that led up to his purchase of Berkshire a “monumentally stupid decision.” He says he knew Berkshire was a troubled company and that he had only bought into it because he thought it was cheap. Buffett expected to make a quick profit and get out. And he almost did.

????But when, in May 1964, Berkshire CEO Seabury Stanton offered Buffett slightly less than what he had promised to repurchase his stake in the company, the 34-year old investor bristled, even though the price Stanton offered would have given Buffett a 52% return for his two-year investment. Instead, Buffett launched a takeover campaign. By the following May, Buffett and his partners had taken control of the company.

????It was a bad move.

????Berkshire continued to struggle. And Buffett threw good money after bad trying to turnaround the company’s textile mills. He eventually closed Berkshire’s operations two decades later.

????But Buffett claims his biggest mistake came two years later. In early 1967, he bought the business that would eventually be the seed of Berkshire’s insurance, investment, and, eventually, conglomerate empire. Buffett bought and merged it into Berkshire, the publicly traded company that he still runs today.

????Buffett says if he had bought the insurance business through his investment partnership hedge fund, which he still ran at the time, he and his investors would have captured all of the investment gains he has created over the past 50 years. Instead, he has shared those gains with the public shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway.

????But it’s hard to consider this a mistake that Buffett truly regrets. It’s odd to imagine what Buffett would be like now or, indeed, what the world would be like if the legendary investor had remained a hedge fund manager and not the head of what became the most successful publicly traded investment partnership in history, into which anyone, who had the money, could buy into and become rich. And there likely wouldn’t have been 50 years of investment letters and Buffett wisdom for all to read. This year’s letter, like the others, is great.

????There are plenty of other gems in the special section of this year’s letter titled, “Berkshire – Past, Present and Future,” particularly if you are a Buffett fan. And if not for Buffett’s $100 billion mistake, there would probably be a lot fewer of those.

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