????中國(guó)政府上周四宣布,，今年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)為7%，比過(guò)去三年下調(diào)了0.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn),。這遠(yuǎn)低于本世紀(jì)頭十年的水平,，當(dāng)時(shí)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)高歌猛進(jìn),，年均增幅曾達(dá)到10%。

????對(duì)這條消息有兩種解讀方式,。對(duì)悲觀主義者來(lái)說(shuō),，造成中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩的問(wèn)題看來(lái)不會(huì)很快消失。房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)越發(fā)低迷,，地方政府債務(wù)仍處于難以為繼的高水平,，本世紀(jì)頭十年的那種發(fā)展模式也已經(jīng)走到了盡頭。當(dāng)時(shí),，中國(guó)的鋼鐵和水泥企業(yè)把自己的產(chǎn)品賣(mài)給國(guó)內(nèi)建筑公司,，后者再用這些原材料修建摩天大樓、公路和隧道,。面對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)減速,，中國(guó)央行上周下調(diào)了利率，這已經(jīng)是央行在三個(gè)月內(nèi)第二次降息,。

????對(duì)樂(lè)觀主義者來(lái)說(shuō),，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速可能正在下降，但增長(zhǎng)水平仍令人側(cè)目,。中國(guó)仍是全球20大經(jīng)濟(jì)體中發(fā)展最快的一個(gè)（也可能位居第二,，僅次于印度，這要看大家相信誰(shuí)的數(shù)據(jù)）,。7%的增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)意味著今年中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模將提高1萬(wàn)億美元,。雖然增速不高，但增長(zhǎng)規(guī)模仍是印度GDP的一半以上,。樂(lè)觀者還認(rèn)為,，下調(diào)GDP增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)將讓改革變得更容易。三十年來(lái),，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的飛速發(fā)展也引發(fā)了嚴(yán)重的污染問(wèn)題,。對(duì)此已有大量論述，解決方案之一就是壓縮排污工業(yè)的規(guī)模,。降低經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)后,，中國(guó)應(yīng)該可以專(zhuān)注于保持高質(zhì)量發(fā)展，而不是簡(jiǎn)單地提升GDP,。經(jīng)濟(jì)和市場(chǎng)研究機(jī)構(gòu)龍洲經(jīng)訊分析師安德魯?巴特森絕不是盲目樂(lè)觀者,，但他對(duì)于中國(guó)政府降低經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)持積極態(tài)度，安德魯寫(xiě)道：“這是件好事,。這表明政治壓力減輕了,，不用再通過(guò)提高負(fù)債和放任工廠污染來(lái)追求不切實(shí)際的增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)。”

????China lowered its economic growth target for this year to 7% on Thursday. That’s half a percentage point lower than the past three years, and a far cry from the heady 2000s when gross domestic product grew by an average 10% a year.

????There are two ways to interpret the news. For pessimists, the problems causing China’s economic slowdown don’t look like they’re going away anytime soon: the real estate market is falling deeper into distress; local government debt remains unsustainably high; and China’s model in the 2000s that supported double-digit GDP growth figures— in which Chinese firms produced steel and concrete and sold it to Chinese firms building skyscrapers, roads and tunnels—has run its course. In response to the slowdown, China’s central bank cut interest rates last weekend for the second time in three months.

????For optimists, China may be slowing, but man is it still impressive! China is still the fastest-growing of the world’s 20 largest economies (or maybe the second-fastest after India, depending on whose statistics you trust more). And today’s 7% target growth rate translates into $1 trillion in additional activity during the year—a marginal increase that is more than half of India’s total GDP. The optimists also argue a lowered GDP target makes reforms easier to stomach: China’s pollution problems, caused by runaway development over thirty years, have been well documented, and solutions include scaling back the harmful industries. Lower targets should allow China to focus on sustained “quality” growth instead of cheap measures to boost GDP. Gavekal Dragonomics analyst Andrew Batson, who is no Pollyanna, offered the positive view on Thursday: “This is a good thing,” he wrote of the reduced growth target. “[I]t means less political pressure to build up debt and run polluting factories in pursuit of an unrealistic growth target.”