????GDP目標(biāo)關(guān)系重大嗎,？在中國(guó),，是這樣沒(méi)錯(cuò)。中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在許多方面仍不成熟,。首先,，中國(guó)政府的財(cái)政預(yù)算以經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)為基礎(chǔ)。其次,，貨幣政策也要遵循這個(gè)目標(biāo),。如果經(jīng)濟(jì)沒(méi)有“充分”發(fā)揮潛力，中國(guó)央行就可以為市場(chǎng)注入流動(dòng)性,。第三,，GDP目標(biāo)有助于讓中國(guó)的貿(mào)易伙伴安心，因?yàn)檫@表明中國(guó)和歐美競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手不同,，注意力將放在按預(yù)期實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)目標(biāo)上,。這既會(huì)影響到自然資源價(jià)格，又會(huì)影響其他新興市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體,。

????GDP目標(biāo)對(duì)中國(guó)民眾來(lái)說(shuō)重要嗎,？不那么重要。無(wú)論新聞媒體什么時(shí)候提到中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率,，記住一點(diǎn)很有用,，那就是增長(zhǎng)率并不會(huì)提高個(gè)人富裕程度。盡管中國(guó)是全球第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體,，但中國(guó)的人均收入水平仍非常低,。

????Do GDP targets even matter? In China, yes. Its economy is still immature in many ways. First, fiscal budgets in the country are based off the target number. Second, monetary policy is aligned with the targets too—the central bank can pump liquidity into the market if the economy isn’t reaching its “full” potential. Third, targets help reassure trading partners that China, unlike its European or U.S. competitors, will focus on predictably meeting economic targets that influence everything from natural resource prices to other emerging market economies.

????Do GDP growth targets matter to Chinese people? Less so. Whenever China’s GDP growth is in the headlines, it’s helpful to remember that individual prosperity isn’t driven by growth rates. China’s average per capita income remains very low despite the country’s standing as the world’s number two economy.

????就算將不同市場(chǎng)的價(jià)格按統(tǒng)一標(biāo)準(zhǔn)進(jìn)行折算，中國(guó)1.2萬(wàn)美元的人均國(guó)民總收入也只有智利的一半,，和秘魯相當(dāng),。

????幾年前，中國(guó)作家余華曾從普通中國(guó)人的角度寫過(guò)這個(gè)問(wèn)題：“2010年中國(guó)的財(cái)政收入可望達(dá)到八萬(wàn)億元,，有關(guān)部門驕傲地聲稱中國(guó)將成為世界第二富國(guó),，僅次于美國(guó),。可是在這個(gè)光榮的數(shù)據(jù)后面,，卻是一個(gè)讓人不安的數(shù)據(jù),，人均年收入仍然在世界的一百位。這兩項(xiàng)應(yīng)該是接近或者平衡的經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo),，在今天的中國(guó)竟然差距如此巨大,。” 龍洲經(jīng)訊分析師巴特森指出,，隨著收入水平趕上發(fā)達(dá)市場(chǎng),，發(fā)展中國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率一般都會(huì)下降。中國(guó)目前的情況就是如此,，但中國(guó)還有很長(zhǎng)的路要走,。

????Even after standardizing prices in different markets, China’s gross national income per capita of $12,000 is half that of Chile’s and on a par with Peru’s.

????Chinese author Yu Hua wrote several years ago about the issue from the perspective of the average Chinese citizen: “In 2010 China’s revenues are set to hit 8 trillion yuan, and we are told proudly that we are on the verge of becoming the second- richest country in the world, trailing only the United States. But behind these dazzling statistics is another, unsettling one: in terms of per capita income China is still languishing at a low rank, one hundredth in the world. These two economic indicators, which should be similar or in balance, are miles apart in China today.” Gavekal’s Batson points out that a developing country’s growth rate typically falls as incomes rise into developed market levels, which is happening now in China, but there’s a long way to go.

????那么，如何看待中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩以及中國(guó)政府下調(diào)增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)呢,？咨詢公司鼎榮集團(tuán)分析師丹尼爾?羅森和包蓓蓓一直密切跟蹤中國(guó)市場(chǎng),。今年早些時(shí)候，他們解釋了中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩幅度令人擔(dān)心的原因,。兩位分析師指出,，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放慢是因?yàn)橹毓I(yè)領(lǐng)域的資本密集型投資正在減速，這種投資創(chuàng)造的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)較少,，但對(duì)GDP促進(jìn)極大,，“而資金需求少，能創(chuàng)造更多就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)的服務(wù)業(yè)正在發(fā)展壯大,?！?/p>

????他們的結(jié)論是什么呢？“7%左右的GDP增長(zhǎng)率與就業(yè)需求相符,，前提是改革繼續(xù)為新的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)開(kāi)辟空間,，特別是在服務(wù)行業(yè)?！?/p>

????這么說(shuō)來(lái),，下調(diào)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)看來(lái)并不那么令人緊張。不過(guò),，這還要取決于大家從哪個(gè)角度來(lái)看待這個(gè)問(wèn)題,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????審稿：李翔

????So how to view China’s slowdown and target reduction? Earlier this year, Rhodium Group analysts Daniel Rosen and Beibei Bao, who closely follow the country’s market, explained the causes of the country’s alarming slowdown. They pointed out that China’s growth is slowing because capital-intensive investment in heavy industry that creates few jobs, but outsized GDP, is slowing “while services, which use less capital and create more jobs, are growing.”

????Their conclusion? “A headline value around 7% for GDP growth is consistent with employment requirements, provided reform continues to open room for new activity, especially in the services sector.”

????In that way, a lower target growth rate doesn’t look so alarming. But it depends on your perspective.