????有哪些影響？

????在我們看來,，股市下跌產(chǎn)生的負(fù)財(cái)富效應(yīng)該相當(dāng)有限,。在美國，機(jī)構(gòu)投資者持有的股票占整個(gè)市場的60%左右,；而在中國,，這個(gè)數(shù)字只有10%。因此,，近來A股暴跌后,，損失最大的是散戶。其次,，隨著可以通過保證金來借款炒股,，再加上人們預(yù)期股市將大漲，一年來開始投資股票的人越來越多,，但A股投資賬戶仍不到1億個(gè)。相對于中國13億人口,，這個(gè)數(shù)字占的比重不高,。第三,，在中國，股票只占個(gè)人總資產(chǎn)凈值的很小一部分（遠(yuǎn)低于其他國家,，比如美國）,。因此，普通人可以從股票價(jià)值暴跌造成的損失中恢復(fù)過來,。最后,，向這些投機(jī)者提供資金的金融機(jī)構(gòu)可能出現(xiàn)壞賬，但壞賬規(guī)模和它們的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債相比看來很小,，這也表明本輪市場暴跌的影響相對不大,。

????對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)有何影響？

????一般來說,，股市和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)走勢有相當(dāng)密切的聯(lián)系,。但就目前情況而言，中國股市的漲跌似乎已經(jīng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)脫鉤,，就像美國的網(wǎng)絡(luò)泡沫那樣,。受到?jīng)_擊的將是一小部分中國消費(fèi)者，因此我覺得損失會(huì)相當(dāng)有限,。這或許會(huì)略微影響中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率,，特別是在消費(fèi)占中國GDP增速的比重不斷上升的情況下，但如果政府為了刺激消費(fèi)而進(jìn)行干預(yù),，我也不會(huì)感到驚訝,。當(dāng)然，如果股市暴跌對消費(fèi)信心產(chǎn)生了重大不利影響,，經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩勢頭就會(huì)更明顯,。因此，今后幾個(gè)月乃至幾個(gè)季度,，大家應(yīng)對此予以密切關(guān)注,。

????對硅谷有何影響？中國的新經(jīng)濟(jì)企業(yè)情況怎樣,？

????在硅谷,，大多數(shù)人都低估了美國和中國在科技經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域不斷融合的態(tài)勢。如今,，這兩個(gè)市場的相互依賴程度超過了以往任何時(shí)候?，F(xiàn)在，蘋果公司的最大市場是中國,。到今年底,，中國還將成為Uber的第一大市場。反過來,，阿里巴巴,、騰訊和其他中國公司一直在美國投資和收購,，中國投資者在美國風(fēng)投領(lǐng)域也變得越來越積極。

????我認(rèn)為中國的新經(jīng)濟(jì)將繼續(xù)健康而迅速地增長,。還有許多基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施有待建設(shè),，許多消費(fèi)者都成了中產(chǎn)階層，移動(dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)用戶也出現(xiàn)了巨大增長,。這些因素應(yīng)共同推動(dòng)中國的新經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)快速增長,，從而消除股市造成人們財(cái)富減少而產(chǎn)生的不利影響。如果我沒有看錯(cuò),，我認(rèn)為硅谷受到的影響也將有限,。美國最好的移動(dòng)、互聯(lián)網(wǎng)和硬件公司以及著眼于大客戶的企業(yè)都將繼續(xù)把中國視為成長型市場,，許多美國公司將追隨蘋果和Uber的腳步進(jìn)入中國,，而且它們將看到一個(gè)競爭激烈但成果豐富、活力十足的市場,。同樣的,，最有實(shí)力的中國科技公司和投資者也不會(huì)忽視美國這片商業(yè)樂土。

????我們已經(jīng)擺脫困境了嗎,？

????上文已經(jīng)指出,，中國股市回落對中國新經(jīng)濟(jì)以及美國科技和風(fēng)頭市場的影響相當(dāng)有限。不過,，仍有一些風(fēng)險(xiǎn),，其中值得關(guān)注的兩個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素是中國消費(fèi)者和中國的債務(wù)水平。

????消費(fèi)是中國宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)鍵組成部分,，比重也越來也大,。如果股市帶來的恐慌、對房價(jià)下跌的擔(dān)憂或者其他一些原因使中國消費(fèi)者失去了信心并且停止支出,，中國新經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康狀況就可能最終受到影響,。包括消費(fèi)、企業(yè)和政府在內(nèi),，中國總債務(wù)占GDP的比例非常高,。雖然經(jīng)濟(jì)增長保障了中國迄今為止的還債能力，但經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放慢則可能帶來巨大的挑戰(zhàn),。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????本文作者格林?所羅門是紀(jì)源資本管理合伙人,。他最近投資的公司包括Zendesk、Nimble Storage,、Pandora,、Successfactors、Isilon、Domo,、Square,、Opendoor,、AlienVault和HashiCorp,。本文最初刊登在他的博客上。

????譯者：Charlie

????校對：詹妮

????What’s the impact?

????The wealth effect impact of the falling market should be fairly moderate in my opinion. In the U.S., approximately 60% of all equities are owned by institutional investors, in China this figure is only 10%. So, the big losers of this recent market sell off are individuals. Second, while participation in the equity markets had certainly become more popular over the past year as margin debt became available and people were seeing strong gains, the numbers I’ve seen suggest there are less than 100M trading accounts open in China. Relative to the 1.3 billion people in China, this is a small percentage of the population. Third, across the population, equities represent a small percentage of total net worth (much lower than the U.S., for example), so the average person can recover from a shock in equity values. Finally, financial institutions who’ve lent money on margin to these speculators may end up with bad loans on their books, but these seem to represent a very small percentage of their balance sheets, again pointing to a relatively muted impact of this sell-off.

????Will it impact the broader economy in China?

????Generally there’s a pretty tight linkage between equity markets and underlying macro-economic trends. In this case, similar to the U.S. dotcom bubble, the rally and then fall of Chinese stocks seems de-coupled from the underlying economy. The pain will be felt by a minority of consumers in China and, as a result, I suspect the damage will be fairly muted. This may impact economic growth rates on the margin, especially because consumption is climbing as a component of China’s GDP growth, but I wouldn’t be shocked by government intervention to stimulate consumption. Of course, if consumer sentiment is meaningfully negatively impacted by the equity market swoon, the economic slow-down could be more precipitous, so we should watch this closely over the coming months and quarters.

????What’s the impact for Silicon Valley? How about for the new economy companies in China?

????Most in Silicon Valley under-estimate the growing convergence between the U.S. and Chinese tech economies. These two markets rely on each other now more than ever. Apple’s AAPL 2.67% biggest market is now China. The same will be true for Uber by the end of this year. Conversely, Alibaba, Tencent and others have been investing and acquiring in the U.S., while Chinese investors have become increasingly active in the U.S. venture capital arena.

????I anticipate continued health and rapid growth of China’s new economy. There’s much infrastructure yet to build out, many new consumers entering the ranks of the middle class and huge growth coming in mobile internet users. These factors should conspire to continue to catapult new economy growth in China, overwhelming any negative impacts of wealth declines from the stock market. If I’m correct, I think you’ll see limited impact on Silicon Valley. The best U.S. mobile, Internet, hardware and enterprise companies will continue to eye China as a growth market, and many will follow Apple and Uber’s lead into China, finding strong local competition but a very fruitful, dynamic market. Similarly, the strongest Chinese tech companies and investors will not lose sight of the U.S. as a desired place to do business.

????So are we out of the woods?

????I’ve argued that the correction in Chinese equities will have a fairly modest impact on China’s new economy and U.S. tech and VC markets. That said, there are still risks. Two that bear watching include the Chinese consumer and Chinese debt levels.

????Chinese consumption is a critical and growing part of China’s macro-economic growth machine. If Chinese consumers lose confidence and stop spending money, due to the stock market induced panic, fears of falling home prices, or some other reason, this could ultimately spill over to China’s new economy health. China’s total debt levels, including consumer, corporate and government debt, is at a very high ratio relative to total GDP. While underlying growth has helped finance this debt to date, a slow-down could cause significant challenges as well.

????Glenn Solomon (@glennsolomon) is a Managing Partner with GGV Capital. Some of his recent investments include Zendesk, Nimble Storage, Pandora, Successfactors, Isilon, Domo, Square, Opendoor, AlienVault and HashiCorp. This post originally appeared on his blog.