????截至8月13日,，人民幣已經(jīng)連續(xù)第三天貶值，當(dāng)日收跌1.1%,，三日累計(jì)跌幅創(chuàng)數(shù)十年新高,。過去一周,，人民幣貶值引起全球市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩，因?yàn)橥顿Y者擔(dān)心全球貿(mào)易會(huì)失衡,，爆發(fā)貨幣戰(zhàn),。

????對(duì)于人民幣貶值，空頭可能有些夸大其辭,，但值得注意的是，它不僅對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生影響,，也可能影響到美國(guó)普羅大眾的日常生活,，從休閑娛樂的成本到牛奶的價(jià)格,，無(wú)所不包。美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)物價(jià)漲跌可能有多種原因,，人民幣匯率波動(dòng)也可能是原因之一。

????以下我們來(lái)看一看這背后有什么聯(lián)系,。

????由于人民幣貶值,，人民幣一元能兌換到的美元更少,，中國(guó)消費(fèi)者要花比過去更多的人民幣才能買到美國(guó)的產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)。進(jìn)口價(jià)格上漲,，但中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)的工資也保持不變,，所以中國(guó)消費(fèi)者購(gòu)買美國(guó)商品的難度會(huì)更大。

????以美國(guó)電影視頻流媒體服務(wù)商奈飛為例,。該公司正摩拳擦掌，準(zhǔn)備進(jìn)軍中國(guó)市場(chǎng),。中國(guó)最大電商阿里巴巴參與成立的新合資公司也將成為奈飛的對(duì)手,。要與本土的流媒體服務(wù)競(jìng)爭(zhēng),，奈飛就必須提供更有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的價(jià)格吸引用戶。這將給該公司在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)獲得盈利帶來(lái)壓力,。人民幣匯率走低會(huì)加劇奈飛的盈利壓力，因?yàn)槟物w的服務(wù)對(duì)中國(guó)用戶來(lái)說會(huì)變得比較貴,，該公司甚至可能不得不為了吸引客戶而進(jìn)一步降價(jià)。

????中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的利潤(rùn)下降可能迫使奈飛為增加收入而上調(diào)美國(guó)市場(chǎng)的價(jià)格,。而漲價(jià)又可能導(dǎo)致奈飛失去一些美國(guó)客戶,，分析師將因此下調(diào)奈飛的盈利預(yù)期,，這又給奈飛的股價(jià)施加下行壓力。

????假設(shè)有一位老板,，他的公司為牛奶加工廠使用的機(jī)器提供零部件,。他喜歡看奈飛的視頻,。作為一個(gè)年收入20萬(wàn)美元的老板，他可能不介意奈飛提供的網(wǎng)上娛樂服務(wù)每月漲那么1美元，但他會(huì)在意持有奈飛股票的共同基金價(jià)值縮水,，那可是上萬(wàn)美元的損失。為彌補(bǔ)這種投資損失,，他會(huì)被迫上調(diào)旗下公司的零部件售價(jià),，那么加工牛奶的廠商也有必要漲價(jià)了,。

????人民幣貶值就是這樣波及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的。最終,，它不僅影響美國(guó)人付費(fèi)看《紙牌屋》的價(jià)格，也會(huì)改變美國(guó)超市一加侖牛奶的價(jià)格,。

????當(dāng)然,，以上只是簡(jiǎn)單的例子,，許許多多不可預(yù)知的因素都可能改變上述美國(guó)漲價(jià)的結(jié)果。按照以上預(yù)測(cè)情境,，如果那家牛奶加工廠從中國(guó)購(gòu)買設(shè)備零部件，其實(shí)還能因?yàn)槿嗣駧刨H值而受益,。而且,，匯率波動(dòng)的影響往往比較遲緩,，不會(huì)那么快擴(kuò)大到整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)層面，何況匯率自身也受到供需等其他因素影響,。中國(guó)出口價(jià)格下跌會(huì)推動(dòng)人民幣的需求增長(zhǎng),，長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看人民幣幣值還會(huì)反彈,，那樣一來(lái)，奈飛的定價(jià)又可以恢復(fù)正常,。

????無(wú)論如何，以上多種因素的綜合影響無(wú)疑會(huì)改變現(xiàn)狀,。這正是美國(guó)消費(fèi)者應(yīng)該擔(dān)心的,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????本文作者Kumar是科技與商業(yè)領(lǐng)域評(píng)論員，覆蓋科技,、傳媒和電信行業(yè)的投資銀行業(yè)務(wù),。對(duì)于本文提及的上市公司,，他并未持有任何一家的股票。

????譯者：Pessy

????校對(duì)：詹妮

????China devalued its currency for the third consecutive day Thursday, a drop of 1.1% from Wednesday and collectively the largest drop in decades. The devaluation has caused turmoil in markets all over the world this past week due to fears of a global trade imbalance and currency wars.

????But while the naysayers may be overstating the case, it’s worth noting that China’s currency devaluation doesn’t just have a macroeconomic impact but could also affect the everyday lives of average Americans, from the cost of entertainment to the price of milk. While prices in the U.S. may fluctuate for a number of reasons, they could also be impacted by currency movements in China.

????Here’s how this could happen.

????When the Chinese yuan is devalued, it costs a Chinese consumer more in the local currency to buy an American product or service since each yuan now buys fewer dollars. But even though the price has gone up, local wages remain the same, making it more difficult for the Chinese consumer to make the purchase.

????Take a company like Netflix NFLX 2.67% as one example, which is gearing up to enter the Chinese market. To compete with local streaming services, including a new venture by Chinese ecommerce giant Alibaba BABA 2.36% , the company will have to offer competitive pricing to attract subscribers, putting pressure on its margins in China. This impact is worsened by a weaker yuan, which would effectively make Netflix more expensive for local viewers and force the company to lower prices even further to gain traction.

????Lower profitability from China might then require Netflix to raise its prices in the U.S. to boost its bottom line. But higher pricing could also lead to a loss in subscribers, which would result in analysts downgrading their projections for the streaming video provider. That would depress the stock price.

????Now consider the owner of a company that provides machine parts for a milk processing plant, and who likes to watch Netflix. While the owner, who makes $200,000 a year, may not care about a $1 per month increase in his online entertainment costs, he would care about a decrease in the value of his mutual fund that holds Netflix stock, which could amount to thousands of dollars. To make up for this loss, he in turn would have to raise the prices of his machine parts, which would then make it necessary for the company providing milk to increase its prices.

????And that’s how the currency devaluation in China can ripple through the global economic ecosystem to ultimately impact not just how much you pay to watch House of Cards, but the price of a gallon of milk on your local supermarket shelf.

????Obviously, this is a simplistic example and a myriad of unpredictable factors could change the outcome. In the above scenario, the milk processing plant could simply buy its machine parts from China to take advantage of a weaker yuan. In addition, the effects of foreign exchange fluctuations are usually slow to spread through the wider economy, and in itself are subject to other influences such as supply and demand. Cheaper Chinese exports would lead to a higher demand for the yuan, which would cause it to rise back up in value over time and enable Netflix to normalize its pricing.

????But the collective impact of several such scenarios definitely can make a difference and that’s what American consumers should be worried about.

????Kumar is a tech and business commentator. He has worked in technology, media, and telecom investment banking. He does not own any shares of the companies mentioned in this article.