????上周,，一位德國(guó)官員稱，德國(guó)未來(lái)有能力每年接納50萬(wàn)甚至更多難民,。目前,，成千上萬(wàn)來(lái)自中東和非洲戰(zhàn)亂國(guó)家的難民涌入歐洲，希望獲得更好的生活,。

????但如此多的難民涌入德國(guó),，會(huì)給德國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)怎樣的影響呢？截至2015年底,，德國(guó)預(yù)計(jì)將接收80萬(wàn)難民和移民,。德國(guó)政府估計(jì)，這意味著德國(guó)需要為此投入100億歐元,。德國(guó)官方預(yù)測(cè),，明年有資格享受社會(huì)福利的人數(shù)將增加46萬(wàn)人。

????反對(duì)移民的組織認(rèn)為,，外國(guó)人將成為德國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的巨大拖累,，因?yàn)樗麄冊(cè)跒檫@個(gè)國(guó)家作出貢獻(xiàn)之前便希望享受政府提供的服務(wù)。但從歷史來(lái)看,，外來(lái)者給德國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)的一直都是正面影響,。有報(bào)告顯示,，2012年，660萬(wàn)在德居住的外國(guó)護(hù)照持有者平均每人支付的稅款和社會(huì)保障費(fèi)用,，比享有的社會(huì)福利多出4127美元,，產(chǎn)生的盈余額達(dá)到220億歐元。德國(guó)官方希望,，今年夏天的新難民潮,，從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)看也能帶來(lái)類(lèi)似的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益。

????德國(guó)勞工部長(zhǎng)安德里?納勒斯表示：“我們將從此次難民潮中受益,，因?yàn)槲覀冃枰泼?。我們?yīng)該歡迎這些難民成為我們的鄰居和同事?！?/p>

????事實(shí)上,，人口因素正是德國(guó)允許成千上萬(wàn)移民入境的原因之一。德國(guó)是全世界人口老齡化和人口縮減速度最快的國(guó)家之一,。此外,，德國(guó)的出生率也是全世界最低的。有鑒于此,，要想填補(bǔ)日益擴(kuò)大的勞動(dòng)力缺口,，德國(guó)只能依賴移民。德國(guó)之聲去年引用一名專(zhuān)家的話稱,，德國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)需要吸引150萬(wàn)掌握熟練技術(shù)的移民,，才能在越來(lái)越多的德國(guó)人退休后保證國(guó)家養(yǎng)老金制度的穩(wěn)定。大量年輕移民的到來(lái),，有助于改善德國(guó)的撫養(yǎng)比率,。“撫養(yǎng)比率”是指65歲以上的人口,，與普通工作年齡（即15至64歲）人口的比例。根據(jù)目前的官方估算,，截至2060年,，將有三分之一的德國(guó)人超過(guò)65歲，這意味著每?jī)蓚€(gè)工作人口需要撫養(yǎng)一名退休老人,。

????但目前分歧依舊,，移民最終將成為國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的阻礙還是推動(dòng)力？據(jù)哈佛商學(xué)院2011年的一份工作文件顯示,，北歐的移民最開(kāi)始通常會(huì)消耗國(guó)家資源,，但他們的工資會(huì)逐漸提高，使得他們最終可以回饋國(guó)家,。

????新涌入的難民將幫助還是阻礙德國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,，歸根結(jié)底取決于他們所帶來(lái)的技能,。目前在德國(guó)工作的外國(guó)人，也就是前文所提到的給國(guó)家?guī)?lái)盈余的外國(guó)人中,，許多都是來(lái)自希臘等歐洲國(guó)家的高技能工人,。而此次涌入德國(guó)的移民卻相反，許多人可能沒(méi)有接受過(guò)良好的培訓(xùn),。雖然在這方面的研究不多,，但有一項(xiàng)預(yù)測(cè)認(rèn)為，超過(guò)半數(shù)難民沒(méi)有接受過(guò)職業(yè)培訓(xùn),。這意味著,，德國(guó)的決策者們必須想出一個(gè)萬(wàn)全之策，從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)發(fā)展的角度,，接納這些非技術(shù)工人,，并將他們納入到德國(guó)勞動(dòng)力大軍當(dāng)中，比如激勵(lì)他們接受低水平技術(shù)工作,，或者對(duì)他們進(jìn)行培訓(xùn),，使他們有能力從事更高級(jí)別的工作。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

????審校：任文科

????A German official said Tuesday the country can sustain up to 500,000 or more new asylum-seekers or more every year, a comment that comes as hundreds of thousands of people from war-torn countries across the Middle East and Africa are making their way to Europe to chase the promise of a better life.

????But what’s the economic effect of so many migrants streaming into Germany? The country expects to receive 800,000 refugees and migrants by the end of 2015. That could cost as much as 10 billion euros, according to local government estimates. Next year, German officials estimate that as many as 460,000 more people could be entitled to social benefits.

????Some anti-immigration groups argue foreigners are a drain on a country’s economy, as they seek to avail themselves of government services before contributing to the state themselves. But Germany has a long history of outsiders representing a net positive for the country’s economy. The 6.6 million people living in Germany with foreign passports paid $4,127 more in taxes and social security on average than they took in social benefits in 2012–generating a surplus of 22 billion euros that year, according to one report. German officials are hopeful that, in the long run, this summer’s new flood of refugees could result in a similar economic gain.

????“We will profit from this, too, because we need immigration,” German Labor Minister Andrea Nahles said. “The people who come to us as refugees should be welcomed as neighbors and colleagues.”

????Part of Germany’s rationale for allowing hundreds of thousands of migrants through the doors lies in demographics. Germany has one of the world’s most rapidly aging and shrinking populations. With one of the world’s lowest birthrates, the country relies on immigration to plug a growing workforce hole. According to one expert quoted in Deutsche Welle last year, the German economy needs to attract 1.5 million skilled migrants to stabilize the state pension system as more Germans retire. An influx of young migrants could improve the country’s dependency ratio, a measure of those over 65 compared to those of general working age between 15 and 64. According to currentofficial estimates, every third German could be over 65 by 2060, leaving two workers to support each retiree.

????Still, the jury is still hung on whether immigrants overall serve as drains or boosts to economies. According to one 2011 working paper from Harvard Business School, immigrants in Northern Europe have traditionally started off as a drain on state resources, though some of their wages tend to increase over time, allowing them to contribute back to the state.

????Ultimately, whether or not this new wave of migrants helps or hinders Germany’s economy depends heavily on the skillsets they bring. Many of Germany’s current working foreigners — the ones that created the surplus mentioned above — are high-skilled workers from other European countries like Greece. In contrast, the migrants flooding into Germany right now may not be as well-trained. Though the research on the subject is thin, one estimate pegs more than half of refugees lack professional training. That means German policymakers will have to do a very good job of taking unskilled workers and incorporating them into the German labor force in a way that makes sense for long-term growth, whether that’s by incentivizing them to take low-skilled jobs or training them to do higher-level work.