????過去一個(gè)月,，蘋果公司的股價(jià)遭遇重創(chuàng),，但隨著新款iPhone手機(jī)的預(yù)定量即將打破去年的1000萬臺記錄，蘋果的股價(jià)趨勢也將迎來新的變化,。2015年9月15日,，蘋果公司股價(jià)的收盤價(jià)達(dá)到每股116.28美元，而且除了暫時(shí)性的震蕩之外,，這一穩(wěn)定增長的趨勢很有可能繼續(xù)下去,。即便有報(bào)道稱蘋果將推遲發(fā)布Apple Watch的新操作系統(tǒng)，以修補(bǔ)系統(tǒng)漏洞,，但這一消息不會(huì)對公司股票造成太大影響,。

????盡管市場對蘋果新款手機(jī)的前景表示擔(dān)憂，但iPhone 6S還是成功累積了穩(wěn)定的預(yù)定量,，其中也包括來自蘋果第二大市場——中國市場的大量訂單,。諷刺的是，對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的擔(dān)憂,，恰恰是過去幾個(gè)月導(dǎo)致蘋果公司股價(jià)下跌的主要因素,，由此看來，市場的擔(dān)憂有過慮之嫌,。

????更重要的是,，新iPhone手機(jī)銷售的火爆，意味著這款設(shè)備的受歡迎程度并未減退,。有分析師擔(dān)心iPhone手機(jī)的銷量已經(jīng)達(dá)到了頂峰,，這是因?yàn)樗麄兒鲆暳颂O果產(chǎn)品的粘性。瑞銀集團(tuán)分析師在2014年進(jìn)行的一項(xiàng)分析顯示,，相比其他業(yè)內(nèi)領(lǐng)先的科技公司,，蘋果龐大的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)具有更高的用戶粘性。

????例如,，iPhone用戶有可能同時(shí)使用MacBook或iPad,，這些產(chǎn)品通過一個(gè)通用的操作系統(tǒng)可以與手機(jī)無縫整合。而其他設(shè)備卻與iPhone手機(jī)不兼容或更難同步,。據(jù)IDC統(tǒng)計(jì),，新Apple Watch的銷量也呈現(xiàn)出上升趨勢，而這也需要與iPhone配套使用,。

????對于消費(fèi)者而言,，這意味著放棄使用iPhone選擇其他手機(jī),，不僅價(jià)格昂貴，而且會(huì)帶來諸多不便,。除非有競爭對手生產(chǎn)出一款比iPhone手機(jī)更優(yōu)秀的革命性產(chǎn)品,，否則的話，消費(fèi)者,，尤其是同時(shí)使用其他蘋果設(shè)備的消費(fèi)者,，沒有理由更換手機(jī)品牌。

????2015年第二季度,，在智能手機(jī)總體銷量增長速度下降的情況下,，蘋果相對于其主要競爭對手三星公司的市場份額持續(xù)增加，蘋果的巨大優(yōu)勢由此可見一斑,。據(jù)高德納統(tǒng)計(jì),，蘋果的市場份額從一年前的12.2%增加到14.6%，而三星的市場份額卻從26.2%下降到21.9%,。

????此外,，蘋果iPhone手機(jī)銷量增長的另外一個(gè)重要推動(dòng)力，來自之前手機(jī)的更新?lián)Q代,，因此新的以舊換新選擇應(yīng)該對銷量增長有巨大的推動(dòng)作用,。威瑞森和美國電話電報(bào)公司已計(jì)劃為消費(fèi)者提供更靈活的以舊換新方案?！度A爾街日報(bào)》報(bào)道稱,，約1490萬美國消費(fèi)者有資格在今年年底更換新機(jī)，在2014年iPhone 6發(fā)布的時(shí)候,，這一數(shù)字為530萬人,。

????此外，蘋果也將為購買者提供新的購買方案,，允許iPhone用戶按月分期付款,，每年還可以免費(fèi)升級到新款手機(jī)，并有權(quán)選擇新的運(yùn)營商,。這與無線運(yùn)營商提供的方案沒有太大區(qū)別,，只不過蘋果公司提供的方案并不便宜，但無論如何,，這些方案必能加強(qiáng)iPhone手機(jī)的前景,。因?yàn)橘徺I長期合約的用戶需要接受特定運(yùn)營商許多年的約束，這令他們很是失望,。

????此次蘋果還推出了面向商業(yè)應(yīng)用的尺寸更大,、功能更強(qiáng)的iPad Pro和下一代Apple TV，這些產(chǎn)品也會(huì)增加公司的收入,，而且蘋果肯定正在開發(fā)其他有趣的產(chǎn)品,，但在未來幾個(gè)月,，新iPhone手機(jī)必將成為市場關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。到目前為止,，一切似乎都很順利,。蘋果公司的股票肯定會(huì)上漲。

????漲幅會(huì)有多大,？我們無法預(yù)測,，但在2014年第4季度iPhone 6的季度銷量公布之后，蘋果的股價(jià)漲幅超過20%,，這或許能夠?yàn)槲覀兲峁┮恍﹨⒖肌?/p>

????本文作者S.庫瑪爾是一位科技和商業(yè)評論員。他曾在科技,、媒體和電信投資銀行工作,。他未持有蘋果公司或本文提到的其他公司的股票。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

????審校：任文科

????Apple’s stock has taken quite a beating during the past month, but that tide is likely about to shift as preorders for the new iPhone are on pace to beat last year’s 10 million record. As of the market close on September 15, 2015, the stock was up to $116.28 per share and this steady climb will likely continue except for temporary blips. Even news that Apple is delaying its new operating system for the Apple Watch to fix some bugs is unlikely to hurt the stock much.

????Despite market worries to the contrary, Apple AAPL 0.11% has racked up solid preorders for the iPhone 6S. This includes robust orders in China as well, Apple’s second largest market. Concerns about China’s economy, ironically, were a major factor in the company’s stock price plunge of the last few months, so it seems that the market’s fears were premature.

????More importantly, the strong start to the new iPhone’s sales indicates that the popularity of the device has not waned. Analysts who worry whether the iPhone has peaked are ignoring the stickiness factor for Apple products. The vast ecosystem that Apple has created is stickier than for most other leading tech companies, a 2014 analysis done by UBS analysts showed.

????iPhone owners, for example, are likely to use MacBooks or iPads, which integrate seamlessly with their phone through a common operating system, rather than alternate devices which may be incompatible or more difficult to sync. The new Apple Watch, whose sales are trending up according to IDC, also requires the iPhone.

????What this means is that switching from the iPhone can be expensive and inconvenient for consumers. Unless a competitor produces a game-changing device that is substantially better than the iPhone, there is little motivation for consumers, especially those who use other Apple devices, to switch.

????As proof of Apple’s superiority, its market share in the second quarter of 2015 rose in comparison to its leading competitor, Samsung (although the growth rate for total smartphone sales declined). Apple’s market share rose to 14.6% from 12.2% a year ago, while Samsung’s declined to 21.9% from 26.2%, according to Gartner research.

????In addition, Apple’s iPhone sales are driven heavily by the replacement of previous phones, so the new upgrade options available should help that process along considerably. Companies like Verizon VZ -0.39% and AT&T T 0.46% are now offering plans that give consumers more flexibility; about 14.9 million U.S. customers will be eligible for upgrades at the end of this year, which is a big leap from 5.3 million in 2014 when the iPhone 6 launched, The Wall Street Journal notes.

????Then of course there is the new financing plan that Apple itself will now offer buyers, which allows iPhone owners to pay for the phone in monthly installments and upgrade to the new model every year for free and pick a new carrier. It’s not very different from what the wireless carriers are offering and Apple’s plan isn’t cheap, but in any case, it should bolster the iPhone’s prospects due to the frustration users have felt for years about being tied down to specific carriers on long-term contracts.

????Even though the larger and more powerful iPad Pro targeted at businesses and the next generation Apple TV could also boost Apple’s fortunes, and the company doubtlessly has other interesting products in the works, the story in the coming months will be all about the iPhone. And, so far at least, it seems like a good story. Expect the stock to pop.

????By how much? It’s impossible to know for sure but if the stock market response to the first full quarter of sales for the iPhone 6 is any guide, Apple shares went up by more than 20% in the month after Q4 2014 numbers were released.

????S. Kumar is a tech and business commentator. He has worked in technology, media, and telecom investment banking. He does not own any shares of Apple or other companies mentioned in this article.