最近,，熊市肆虐華爾街,、倫敦或巴黎金融市場(chǎng)的消息不絕于耳。

美國(guó)股市的疲軟，年初創(chuàng)歷史新低的油價(jià)以及中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的繼續(xù)下滑,，都為唱衰論分析師提供了大把證據(jù),。

在唱衰者中，興業(yè)銀行策略師艾伯特?愛德華茲可謂是無(wú)出其右,。近些年來(lái),，他對(duì)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)充滿了負(fù)面看法，而且最近發(fā)生的一些事情更讓他對(duì)自己的觀點(diǎn)深信不疑,，即世界正走向?yàn)?zāi)難,，而且也將殃及股價(jià)。股價(jià)會(huì)下跌多少,？愛德華茲預(yù)計(jì),，美國(guó)股市最多可能會(huì)下跌75%，高于金融危機(jī)期間慘不忍睹的62%的跌幅,。

愛德華茲在最近發(fā)布的研究紀(jì)要中指出,，自上次金融危機(jī)以來(lái)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)通過(guò)大規(guī)模購(gòu)買債券來(lái)支撐股價(jià),、刺激新興市場(chǎng)增長(zhǎng),，而全球經(jīng)濟(jì)則對(duì)此舉產(chǎn)生了依賴性。愛德華茲在評(píng)論美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)降低長(zhǎng)期利率的舉措時(shí)寫道,，“商品泡沫和隨之而來(lái)的美國(guó)頁(yè)巖氣投資熱都是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)量化寬松的產(chǎn)物,。”愛德華茲稱,，既然美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)已經(jīng)停止購(gòu)買債券而且已轉(zhuǎn)向加息,，自上次金融危機(jī)以來(lái)出現(xiàn)的資產(chǎn)價(jià)格虛假增長(zhǎng)現(xiàn)象將不復(fù)存在?！叭缃?，隨著高增長(zhǎng)泡沫的破滅，繁榮的假象也將煙消云散,?！?/p>

與其他愈發(fā)悲觀的分析師一樣,，愛德華茲援引了中國(guó)最近發(fā)生的一些事情,，來(lái)證明其“大事不妙”的觀點(diǎn),。他認(rèn)為，中國(guó)的決策者們目前正處于絕境中,。他指出,，中國(guó)的貨幣實(shí)際上已被過(guò)分高估,。盡管如此，如果中國(guó)為了讓人民幣貶值而采取過(guò)激措施,，那么中國(guó)富人將從經(jīng)濟(jì)中撤走更多的資金,，而這也將導(dǎo)致局勢(shì)的進(jìn)一步惡化,。

此外，由于中國(guó)制造業(yè)近些年來(lái)在新增產(chǎn)能方面的投入過(guò)多,，他們的出路只有一條：為爭(zhēng)奪不斷縮減的全球貿(mào)易市場(chǎng)而削減價(jià)格,。但是，此舉將導(dǎo)致通縮,。愛德華茲說(shuō)：“這種外來(lái)的低價(jià)壓力將導(dǎo)致西方制造業(yè)的凋零,。”盡管制造業(yè)在美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)中的占比很小,，但制造業(yè)的不景氣最終也將拖累服務(wù)行業(yè)。

這篇分析文章稱,，上述現(xiàn)象最終將導(dǎo)致新一輪的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,，隨后，央行將采取激進(jìn)措施,，遏制股價(jià)的下跌和經(jīng)濟(jì)的負(fù)增長(zhǎng),。但是，由于當(dāng)前的利率基本已見底,，而且美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的資產(chǎn)規(guī)模在上一輪的刺激舉措中因購(gòu)買債券而大增,，因此，面對(duì)愛德華茲所謂的長(zhǎng)期熊市,，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)也將是無(wú)計(jì)可施,。愛德華茲稱，最后,，股價(jià)的暴跌將導(dǎo)致標(biāo)普500指數(shù)下探至550點(diǎn),，較近期的峰值（2015年夏天達(dá)到的峰值，剛超過(guò)2100點(diǎn)）下跌75%,。

值得注意的是，愛德華茲多年來(lái)一直都在宣揚(yáng)類似的觀點(diǎn),。2010年,，他曾稱標(biāo)普指數(shù)將跌至450點(diǎn),，但此事并未發(fā)生。如果投資者聽信了他的建議,，他們便會(huì)錯(cuò)過(guò)股市歷史上最為耀眼的輝煌——自那之后,，標(biāo)普500指數(shù)上漲幅度超過(guò)了80%,。盡管最近有所下跌，但標(biāo)普500如今仍處于略低于1900點(diǎn)的水平,。

當(dāng)然,，這并不意味著愛德華茲的觀點(diǎn)就是錯(cuò)誤的。其分析的正確之處在于,，全球股市完全依賴于央行的刺激舉措，而且,，當(dāng)這些刺激舉措消失后,，股價(jià)必然會(huì)以某種形式觸底。然而,，如果你無(wú)法預(yù)測(cè)這一事件發(fā)生的時(shí)間,，那么這篇分析文章就沒有什么實(shí)質(zhì)性的意義。它實(shí)際上成為了對(duì)公共政策的抱怨,，而不是令人信服的投資建議。

盡管如此,，中國(guó)最近發(fā)生的事情也讓高頻經(jīng)濟(jì)公司卡爾?維恩伯格這類牛市派分析師一改往日的鎮(zhèn)定,。在他們發(fā)給客戶的紀(jì)要中，他將最近油價(jià)近40%的同比降幅稱之為是“不可想象的”,，并提醒讀者,，當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)中的過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能累積到無(wú)以復(fù)加的地步時(shí)，全球的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退將拉開帷幕,。

全球石油和商品市場(chǎng)的情況似乎和上述情形相吻合。因此,，即便經(jīng)濟(jì)不會(huì)惡化到愛德華茲所描述的那種程度,，但這并不意味著投資者可以高枕無(wú)憂了。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：馮豐

校對(duì)：詹妮

You don’t have to listen very hard to hear the bears growling on Wall Street, London, or Paris these days. Indeed, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down another 300 points on Wednesday to just under 16,200

With the U.S. stock market sagging, oil off to its worst start ever, and the China’s economy continuing to deteriorate, bearish analysts have a wealth of evidence to point to.

And they don’t come much more bearish than Albert Edwards, strategist at SociétéGénérale. He’s not had much nice to say about the global economy in years, and recent events have only hardened his convictions that the world is headed for disaster, and will take the prices of equities down with it. How much? Edwards predicts the U.S. stock market could plunge as much as 75%. That would be worse than during the financial crisis, in which stocks from their peak to trough dropped a brutal 62%.

In a research note published Wednesday, Edwards argued that ever since the last financial crisis, the global economy has been dependent on the Federal Reserve’s massive bond buying program to prop up equity prices and stimulate growth in emerging markets. “A commodity bubble and the resultant U.S. shale investment boom were all consequences of the Fed’s QE,” Edwards writes, referring to the U.S. central bank’s efforts to lower long-term interest rates. Now that the Fed has stopped buying bonds and has actually moved to raise rates, the artificial growth in asset prices that we’ve seen since the last financial crisis will come undone, according to Edwards. “The illusion of of prosperity is shattered as boom now turns to bust,” he writes.

Like other analysts who are increasingly bearish, Edwards marshals the recent events in China as evidence that something is seriously wrong. He argues that Chinese policy makers are in an impossible bind. Their currency is actually overvalued, he argues. Nonetheless, too bold an attempt to devalue the yuan would lead wealthy Chinese to remove even more of their money from the economy, destabilizing the situation further.

What’s more, the Chinese manufacturing sector, which has been over-investing in additional production for years now, has but one option: slash prices as it fights over a shrinking pie of global trade. And that’s going to lead to deflation. “The western manufacturing sector will choke under this imported deflationary tourniquet,” says Edwards. And even though manufacturing makes up just a fraction of the United States economy, the struggles of the manufacturing sector will eventually infect the services industries as well.

The end result of all of this will be another recession, followed by aggressive central bank action to fight falling equity prices and negative growth, according to this analysis. But with interest rates already so low and the Fed’s balance sheet already inflated from all the bonds it bought during its last stimulus efforts, there is little the central bank can do to stop what Edwards calls a secular bear market. The result, according to Edwards, will be a horrific drop that will leave the S&P 500 down 75%, to 550, from its most recent peak, hit last summer, of just over 2,100.

It should be pointed out that Edwards has been making similar calls for years. Back in 2010, he called for the S&P to collapse to 450. It didn’t. And had investors taken his advice then, they would have missed out on one of the greatest stock market booms in history—the S&P 500 has in fact soared more than 80% since then, and now, even with the recent dip, stands at just under 1,900. Of course, this doesn’t mean that Edwards is wrong. It’s plausible that Edwards is correct in his analysis that global equity markets are hopelessly dependent on central bank stimulus, and that prices will somehow, someway crash down to earth when that stimulus is removed.But if you can’t tell investors when this will happen, that analysis isn’t very meaningful. It amounts to complaints over public policy rather than sound investment advice.

That said, even more bullish analysts like Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics are sounding rattled by the events taking place of late in China. In a note to clients yesterday, he referred to the recent decline in oil prices of nearly 40% from a year ago as “the unthinkable,” and reminded readers that global recessions are typically triggered when an economy builds up excess capacity that must be unwound. Global oil and commodities markets appear to fit this description, and so even if things don’t get s bad as Edwards claims they will, that doesn’t mean that there are clear skies ahead for investors.