美國(guó)股市在本周二表現(xiàn)出色，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)上漲了2.39%,，但這并未打消華爾街對(duì)一場(chǎng)若隱若現(xiàn)的衰退的恐懼情緒,。

盡管大部分經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為衰退不會(huì)在今年到來(lái)，但做出這種預(yù)測(cè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家正在增加,。如果真的出現(xiàn)衰退,，分析家擔(dān)心它會(huì)成為史上持續(xù)最久的一次。匯豐證券首席美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家凱文?洛根周二對(duì)彭博新聞社表示：“如果發(fā)生衰退,，嚴(yán)重性恐怕不及1990年和2001年那兩次,，但長(zhǎng)度恐怕更甚，因?yàn)槔什辉倌芟褚酝粯哟蠓档土??！?/p>

原因在于,，與過(guò)去不同，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)不再擁有降低利率的空間,。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家大衛(wèi)?貝克沃思最近在《金融時(shí)報(bào)》撰文解釋稱：

這個(gè)問(wèn)題的真正原因在于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)堅(jiān)持低通脹策略,。就像卡車司機(jī)會(huì)控制速度一樣，采用低通脹的策略可以防止經(jīng)濟(jì)增速過(guò)快,。一般來(lái)說(shuō)，這是好事,，但有時(shí)也可能適得其反,。卡車司機(jī)有時(shí)也需要加速來(lái)彌補(bǔ)堵車?yán)速M(fèi)的時(shí)間,。與之類似,，經(jīng)濟(jì)有時(shí)也需要加速，才能在一場(chǎng)衰退后發(fā)揮全部潛力,。如果一直限制速度,，就不可能實(shí)現(xiàn)這一點(diǎn)。

貝克沃思認(rèn)為,，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)應(yīng)當(dāng)拋棄通脹目標(biāo),，設(shè)立一個(gè)名義增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)，這樣就能在低增長(zhǎng)階段（正如我們正在經(jīng)歷的這段時(shí)期）容忍較高的通脹率,，后者將被高增長(zhǎng)階段較低的通脹率所彌補(bǔ),。

并不是所有人都認(rèn)同這種設(shè)立增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)就能解決全部問(wèn)題的論點(diǎn)。前財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)拉里?薩默斯就沒(méi)有全盤(pán)支持貝克沃思的觀點(diǎn),，而是強(qiáng)調(diào)如今的低通脹環(huán)境給世界各國(guó)的政府都發(fā)出了信號(hào),，他們應(yīng)該加大投入，刺激當(dāng)前疲軟的需求,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：嚴(yán)匡正

審校：任文科

U.S. stock markets had a Super Tuesday, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.39%, but the latest moves haven’t quieted Wall Street fears of a coming recession.

Though most economists don’t see a recession coming this year, the number that do are on the rise. If and when it does come, analysts are starting to worry that the recession will be longer than most. “If a recession were to occur, it might be shallow but somewhat more extended than the 1990 and 2001 episodes since interest rates can’t be lowered as much,” said Kevin Logan, chief U.S. economist for HSBC Securities, to Bloomberg News on Tuesday.

The reason? The Federal Reserve doesn’t have nearly the room it is used to having, in terms of the ability to lower interest rates, as it usually does. Economist David Beckworth recently explained the problem in an essay for the Financial Times:

The real reason for this [problem] is the Fed’s firm commitment to low inflation. Like a governor placed on a truck’s engine to control its speed, a commitment to low inflation helps prevent the economy from growing too fast. Normally, this is a good thing. But sometimes it can backfire. A truck driver may need to temporarily go faster to make up for lost time after being stuck in traffic. Similarly, an economy may need to temporarily speed up to get back to its full potential after a recession. Neither can happen with a rigid adherence to the speed limit.

Beckworth argues that the Fed should abandon its inflation target for a nominal growth target instead. This would allow the Fed to tolerate higher inflation during periods of low growth (as we are experiencing now), to be made up for with periods of lower inflation when growth is strong.

Not everyone buys Beckworth’s argument that nominal growth targeting will be a cure-all. Former Treasury secretary Larry Summers, for instance, has given a half-endorsement to the idea, but has been much more forceful in his argument that today’s low inflation environment is a signal that governments around the world should be spending more to prop up weak demand.