通用汽車(chē)為何要放棄歐洲市場(chǎng),?
本周一,,美國(guó)通用汽車(chē)公司決定將其歐洲業(yè)務(wù)出售給法國(guó)的標(biāo)志雪鐵龍集團(tuán)(PSA),。此舉表明通用汽車(chē)著眼于汽車(chē)行業(yè)越來(lái)越依賴(lài)軟件和服務(wù)的實(shí)際,寧可犧牲一部分全球市場(chǎng),,也要提升利潤(rùn)的決心,。 如果不算在德國(guó)的歐寶和在英國(guó)的沃克斯豪爾這兩個(gè)子品牌,去年通用的全球銷(xiāo)量大約是880萬(wàn)輛汽車(chē),,在爭(zhēng)奪全球最大汽車(chē)廠(chǎng)商的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中,,遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)落后于德國(guó)大眾和日本豐田。 2016年,,歐寶和沃克斯豪爾兩大品牌合計(jì)銷(xiāo)售了近120萬(wàn)輛汽車(chē),,總收益約為187億美元,約占通用汽車(chē)總營(yíng)收的11%,。 不過(guò),,盡管通用在歐洲使盡了渾身解數(shù)——比如投資于新車(chē)型設(shè)計(jì),研發(fā)更環(huán)保的發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī),,想方設(shè)法提高歐洲工廠(chǎng)的效率,,給38,000多名員工發(fā)薪水等等,但這些努力卻并沒(méi)有什么明顯成效,,通用的歐洲部門(mén)自1999年以來(lái)便一直陷入虧損,。 通用汽車(chē)公司本周一表示,如果該公司去年就賣(mài)掉了歐寶,,那么憑借這20億美元的轉(zhuǎn)手費(fèi),,通用就有了足夠的現(xiàn)金儲(chǔ)備進(jìn)行股票回購(gòu),每購(gòu)收益也將增長(zhǎng)5個(gè)百分點(diǎn),,雖然公司營(yíng)收將不可避免地下降10%,。 盡管歐洲業(yè)務(wù)歷經(jīng)多年掙扎依然無(wú)法止損,但通用的北美業(yè)務(wù)卻呈現(xiàn)了井噴,。在經(jīng)歷了2009年美國(guó)政府主導(dǎo)下的破產(chǎn)重組后,,通用汽車(chē)的國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)業(yè)務(wù)得到了浴火重生,雖然它旗下的品牌和經(jīng)銷(xiāo)商數(shù)量乃至員工人數(shù)都有所縮減,但是它欠債權(quán)人和退休員工的錢(qián)卻也少了很多,。 2009年以來(lái),,借著低油價(jià)的東風(fēng),北美市場(chǎng)的高性能皮卡和SUV的銷(xiāo)量強(qiáng)勢(shì)反彈,。2016年,,通用的北美市場(chǎng)稅前利潤(rùn)成功突破了10%。 為了讓北美市場(chǎng)的利潤(rùn)機(jī)器繼續(xù)開(kāi)足馬力,,通用必須繼續(xù)追加對(duì)SUV和皮卡車(chē)型的投資,,同時(shí)也要斥巨資于環(huán)保技術(shù)的研發(fā),使這些車(chē)輛能夠滿(mǎn)足日益苛刻的聯(lián)邦能源經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo),。 歐洲也同樣需要更環(huán)保的車(chē)型,。然而歐洲市場(chǎng)是以柴油車(chē)和小排量汽油車(chē)當(dāng)?shù)赖模退阃ㄓ没舜髢r(jià)錢(qián)針對(duì)這些發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)進(jìn)行了優(yōu)化,,同樣的技術(shù)對(duì)美國(guó)市場(chǎng)也并無(wú)裨益,,畢竟美國(guó)市場(chǎng)的半壁江山是由大排量汽油車(chē)撐起的——不少皮卡使用的都是八缸引擎。 通用汽車(chē)CEO瑪麗?博拉本周一對(duì)分析師表示:“通用在歐洲的產(chǎn)品組合,,與它在其他市場(chǎng)的產(chǎn)品組合只有20%的重疊,。”因此通用認(rèn)為,,光靠其歐洲部門(mén)自身,,是無(wú)法在排放技術(shù)上實(shí)現(xiàn)規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)效益的。 PSA集團(tuán)CEO唐唯實(shí)(Carlos Tavares)相信,,歐寶的營(yíng)收入和銷(xiāo)量將使PSA在與大眾和雷諾等歐洲廠(chǎng)商的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中占據(jù)一定優(yōu)勢(shì),。PSA旗下品牌主要有標(biāo)志、雪鐵龍和DS,。通用對(duì)PSA的發(fā)展似乎也十分看好,,它還將認(rèn)購(gòu)PSA集團(tuán)4.2%的無(wú)表決股權(quán)。 2009年,,通用汽車(chē)董事會(huì)否決了將歐寶和沃克斯豪爾出售給以汽車(chē)零部件供應(yīng)商麥格納國(guó)際(Magna International)和俄羅斯聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)蓄銀行(Sberbank)為首的一個(gè)財(cái)團(tuán)的動(dòng)議,。而今年通用汽車(chē)終于決定撤出西歐市場(chǎng),這也反映出了2009年以來(lái),,國(guó)際汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)的兩個(gè)重大變化,。 第一個(gè)變化是中國(guó)成為了全球最大的汽車(chē)市場(chǎng),2016年,,中國(guó)的汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量達(dá)到了近2800萬(wàn)輛,,預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)還將繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。 隨著中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的增長(zhǎng),,通用必須將更多工程研發(fā)資金和資本投資轉(zhuǎn)向中國(guó),,而中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的增量最終也將能夠取代出售歐寶所犧牲掉的部分全球銷(xiāo)量,。 2016年,,光是通用在華的高端子品牌別克的銷(xiāo)量就超過(guò)了歐寶和沃克斯豪爾,,上汽通用(即通用與上海汽車(chē)工業(yè)集團(tuán)的合資公司)主打小型商務(wù)車(chē)市場(chǎng)的五菱品牌的銷(xiāo)量也超過(guò)了這兩家公司。 第二大變化是,,自2009年以來(lái),,各大汽車(chē)廠(chǎng)商紛紛開(kāi)始研發(fā)以電能驅(qū)動(dòng)的智能汽車(chē)。這種汽車(chē)的一大特點(diǎn)是它們是以里程付費(fèi)的,,而不是像傳統(tǒng)汽車(chē)那樣可以以車(chē)貸的形式購(gòu)買(mǎi),。 上個(gè)月當(dāng)博拉被問(wèn)到通用汽車(chē)是否需要更激進(jìn)的重組以推高股價(jià)時(shí),博拉表示:“在我們對(duì)未來(lái)的投資上,,我認(rèn)為‘交通即服務(wù)’(Transportation-as-a-service)將是一個(gè)巨大的商機(jī)”,,并表示“用科技推動(dòng)產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型的機(jī)遇”很可能將改變通用汽車(chē)的估值。 博拉還表示,,通用并不需要?dú)W洲工廠(chǎng)為公司在歐洲提供專(zhuān)車(chē)服務(wù),。 不過(guò)投資者們尚未改變他們的看法。畢馬威會(huì)計(jì)事務(wù)所美洲汽車(chē)業(yè)務(wù)部的負(fù)責(zé)人蓋瑞?西爾博格認(rèn)為,,以谷歌母公司Alphabet為代表的一些硅谷企業(yè),,以及以Uber為代表的專(zhuān)車(chē)服務(wù)在汽車(chē)數(shù)字化系統(tǒng)上擁有很大優(yōu)勢(shì)。另外,,汽車(chē)廠(chǎng)商要想成功開(kāi)發(fā)出自動(dòng)駕駛功能,,首先需要解決的就是處理海量數(shù)據(jù)的問(wèn)題。 西爾伯格指出:“人才戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)對(duì)于贏得市場(chǎng)絕對(duì)是至關(guān)重要的,,”而那些人工智能系統(tǒng)領(lǐng)域的人才“是不會(huì)為汽車(chē)公司工作的”,。 去年,通用斥資5億美元(甚至可能追加了金額)收購(gòu)了舊金山的一家機(jī)器人駕駛技術(shù)創(chuàng)業(yè)公司Cruise Automation,,這種收購(gòu)已經(jīng)成為汽車(chē)行業(yè)的一種新業(yè)態(tài),。就在通用汽車(chē)出手后不久,福特汽車(chē)公司也斥資10億美元收購(gòu)了一家機(jī)器人駕駛技術(shù)創(chuàng)業(yè)公司Argo AI,,并將繼續(xù)追加投資推動(dòng)該公司的后續(xù)研發(fā),。 通用汽車(chē)CEO博拉此前曾向投資者承諾,要使投資者回報(bào)率達(dá)到20%或以上,。該公司本周一表示,,在完成歐洲部門(mén)的出售后,該公司將擁有20億美元現(xiàn)金用于股權(quán)回購(gòu),,而公司的資本支出每年也將下降10億美元,。 博拉和其他公司高管此前表示,由于公司面臨著要向股東貢獻(xiàn)更高收益的壓力,,因而不得不做出一些艱難的決定,。拋棄一個(gè)擁有近80年歷史的老品牌,,顯然是通用汽車(chē)歷史上最大的大事之一。此舉的成敗也將決定博拉未來(lái)將給通用汽車(chē)留下哪些遺產(chǎn),。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)) 譯者:樸成奎 |
General Motors Co’s deal on Monday to sell its European operations to France's PSA Group doubles down on a bet that the company can win by being less global but more profitable in an auto industry increasingly dependent on software and services. Without the German Opel and British Vauxhall brands, GM last year would have sold about 8.8 million vehicles, far behind Germany's Volkswagen AG and Japan's Toyota Motor Corp in the race to be the world's largest automaker. Opel and Vauxhall combined sold nearly 1.2 million vehicles and generated $18.7 billion in revenue in 2016, about 11 percent of GM's total. However, all of GM's activity in Europe - the investments in new model designs and cleaner engines, the efforts to make factories more efficient and the wages paid to 38,000 employees - has generated nothing but losses since 1999. GM said on Monday that if it had not had Opel last year and had instead used the $2 billion shedding the unit will free up from its cash reserves to buy back stock, earnings per share would have risen 5 percent, even though revenue would have been 10 percent lower. Meanwhile, business in North America has boomed. GM's home market operations were reborn as a smaller company due in part to the U.S. government-led bankruptcy in 2009, with fewer brands, fewer dealers, fewer employees and far less money owed to creditors and retirees. Since 2009, cheap gasoline has powered a boom in sales of high-profit pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles, lifting GM's North American pretax profit margins to just above 10 percent in 2016. To keep the North American profit machine revved up, GM must invest in new SUVs and trucks, as well as expensive technology to enable them to meet rising federal fuel economy targets. Europe is demanding cleaner cars, too. But far less of the technology GM would buy to clean up European diesels and tiny gasoline engines would be useful in the United States, where larger gasoline engines – including eight-cylinder motors used in pickup trucks – dominate the market. "Only 20 percent of the (European) portfolio overlapped with rest of General Motors' portfolio," Chief Executive Officer Mary Barra told analysts on Monday. That is why GM has concluded it cannot achieve significant economies of scale in emissions technology for Europe on its own. PSA CEO Carlos Tavares is betting Opel's revenue and sales volume would help give his company, which makes Peugeot, Citroen and DS cars, an advantage against rivals such as Volkswagen and Renault SA. GM is in on that bet because it will receive warrants equivalent to a 4.2 percent non-voting stake in the French company. GM's decision to walk away from Western Europe highlights two other profound shifts since 2009, when the board scuttled a deal to sell Opel and Vauxhall to a group led by auto supplier Magna International and Russia's Sberbank. The first is China, now the world's largest auto market, with roughly 28 million vehicles sold in 2016 and more growth forecast to come. As China grows, GM will need to shift more vehicle engineering money and capital investment to feed that market, which could eventually replace much of the global sales volume sacrificed by the sale of Opel. Buick, GM's primary brand in China, outsold Opel and Vauxhall in 2016. So did the Wuling brand of small commercial vehicles the company builds with partner Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. Also since 2009, automakers have begun racing to transform cars into electrified, intelligent devices that are paid for by the mile instead of purchased on installment plans. Asked last month whether GM needed more radical restructuring to lift its share price, Barra said "the way that we are investing in the future, which I think is a huge opportunity, with transportation-as-a-service" and "the opportunity that technology has to transform this industry" could change how the company is valued. GM does not need factories in Europe to offer ride services there, she said. However, investors have not changed their views yet. Gary Silberg, head of KPMG's Americas automotive practice, said Silicon Valley companies such as Alphabet Inc and ride services leader Uber Technologies Inc had the edge in the digital systems and the people needed to work with the terabytes of data required to make a car drive itself. "The war for talent is absolutely essential to winning in the marketplace," Silberg said. And those adept in artificial intelligence systems "are not going to work for the auto industry." GM demonstrated the industry's new economics last year when it agreed to pay $500 million, and potentially more, for tiny San Francisco robotic driving technology startup Cruise Automation. Ford Motor Co followed suit with a $1 billion deal to bring aboard and fund the future work of robotic vehicle startup Argo AI. GM's Barra has promised investors returns of 20 percent or more. The company said on Monday that after completing the European sale, it would have $2 billion to accelerate share repurchases, and capital spending would be reduced by about $1 billion a year. The pressure on GM to deliver high returns to shareholders forces tough decisions, Barra and other senior GM executives have said. The decision to abandon Opel after nearly 80 years is the most momentous yet, and the success or failure of that bet could define her legacy. |