這是對美國經濟的糟糕信號：就在聯邦政府取消“舊車換現金”項目促進汽車銷量后的一年,，汽車銷量跌幅達到了2010年8月以來的最大值。

通用汽車7月的銷量下跌了15%,，創(chuàng)一年多來的最大跌幅,。他們在底特律的競爭對手也好不了多少：福特汽車的銷量下滑幅度乃是去年10月以來最大，而菲亞特-克萊斯勒今年的下跌之勢也是公司史上第二糟糕的境況,。

這些令人失望的數據,，凸顯了底特律在實現特朗普總統(tǒng)對其“再次成為全球汽車之都”的期許過程中的掙扎。這些本土汽車廠商開始解雇美國工人,，尤其是那些生產轎車的工人,，這些汽車已經不再受到美國消費者的青睞。人們對汽車需求的減少,，導致了在該領域的支出降低,，這也給美國經濟的增長拖了后腿，而多年來,，汽車業(yè)本為美國經濟的發(fā)展立下過汗馬功勞,。

芝加哥DS Economics的首席執(zhí)行官和創(chuàng)始人黛安·史萬克表示：“你不可能給經濟賒賬。汽車業(yè)比其他行業(yè)表現更加強勁,，這種情況持續(xù)了好一陣子,，原因在于他們給那些付不起貸款的人借貸了。銷量會很快提升,，但現在他們要付出代價了?！?

傳統(tǒng)美國汽車廠商的銷量下滑幅度都超出了分析師在彭博新聞調查中給出的預期,。日產汽車和本田汽車比預期的情況稍好，但出現銷量增長的只有豐田汽車,。

整個行業(yè)的出貨量下滑了7%,，也是“舊車換現金”項目終止一年以來的最大跌幅。后者是2009年8月起實施的一個項目,，由于消費者借此更換了更加節(jié)能的車型,，也促進了美國汽車的銷量。

Autodata Corp.的數據顯示,，輕型車輛的銷量經過季節(jié)性變化的修正,，在7月下滑到了1,680萬輛,，而去年同期則是1,780萬輛。分析師普遍估計的銷量是1,700萬輛,。

存貨過多

通用汽車的汽車庫存可以支持104天,，遠超年終目標的約70天。高管表示,，他們計劃今年下半年削減在北美的汽車產量,，與上半年相比會減少15萬輛。

盡管通用汽車計劃的工廠停工,，其部分原因在于更換設備用于升級車型,，如非常重要的全尺寸皮卡，但公司也減少了四個轎車裝配工廠的當班人員,，預計有五分之一將在9月被解職,。

福特計劃第三季度在北美減少3.4萬輛汽車產量。公司表示產能要匹配需求,，并宣布增加肯塔基州卡車工廠的產量,，用于生產新款的福特征服者和林肯領航員SUV。

今年,，大部分大型汽車廠商的股價都落后于美國股市指數的基準值,。菲亞特-克萊斯勒是個例外，消費者從轎車轉向皮卡和SUV的品味變化讓他們從中受益,。此外還有特斯拉,，由于公眾對更加平價的Model 3車型表示期待，公司的股價也在飆升,。

上周二,，通用汽車的股價下跌3.4%，創(chuàng)今年2月以來的最大跌幅,，福特股價下跌2.4%,，也是三個月以來最糟糕的一次。

隨著普通消費者和汽車租賃公司都開始削減汽車購買量,，汽車廠商需要努力追趕去年下半年的優(yōu)異表現,。上個月，雪佛蘭Impala和福特Fusion的出貨量跳水了約40%,。

特朗普的失敗

這些數據彰顯了特朗普的失敗,。他曾在今年3月對汽車廠商表示，他會在環(huán)境標準上給廠商們松綁,，希望能夠帶回更多工作崗位,。

野村證券國際公司在紐約的首席經濟學家劉易斯·亞歷山大表示：“特朗普認為，放寬管制會增加在美國生產汽車的吸引力，實施關稅也會促進投資,，但當下如此做不會有什么效果,。”

底特律的傳統(tǒng)汽車廠商還要與日本和其他提供SUV車型的奢侈品牌競爭,，并要以前所未有的銷量賣出汽車,。

IHS Markit的高級汽車經濟師彼得·內格爾表示：“市場份額如今已經被更多具有競爭力的廠商瓜分，因此,，底特律的汽車三巨頭也受此影響,。”

不過,，內格爾補充道,，北美工廠已經把制造重點轉向了皮卡和SUV，所以消費者更青睞大型汽車對美國經濟是有益的,。

他說：“我們在制造這類汽車上確實擁有特長,。”（財富中文網）

譯者：嚴匡正

Here’s a bad sign for the U.S. economy: Auto sales just fell the most since August 2010, a year after the federal government’s “Cash for Clunkers” program to stimulate demand came to an end.

Sales at General Motors Co. plunged 15 percent in its home market in July, the biggest drop in more than a year. Its Detroit rivals didn’t fare much better: Ford Motor Co. reported its biggest sales decline since October and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV had its second worst tumble this year.

The disappointing showing underscores how Detroit has been struggling to live up to President Donald Trump’s prediction that it would become “the car capital of the world again.” The hometown automakers are instead laying off U.S. workers, particularly those who build passenger cars that have fallen out of favor with American consumers. A demand slump has rendered spending on vehicles and parts a drag on U.S. economic growth, after years of contributing to expansion.

“You can’t jawbone the economy,” said Diane Swonk, chief executive officer and founder of DS Economics in Chicago. “The auto industry was stronger than the rest of the economy for a while because they were giving credit to people who couldn’t pay loans. Sales crested sooner and now they are paying the price.”

The traditional U.S. automakers each missed projections for declines that analysts gave in a Bloomberg News survey. While Nissan Motor Co. and Honda Motor Co. both beat projections, only Toyota Motor Corp. posted a gain.

Industrywide deliveries fell 7 percent, the steepest drop since the anniversary of “Cash for Clunkers,” a program that inflated U.S. sales in August 2009 as buyers traded in for more fuel-efficient wheels.

The annualized pace of light-vehicle sales, adjusted for seasonal trends, slowed to 16.8 million in July, according to Autodata Corp., from 17.8 million a year earlier. The average analyst estimate was for a 17 million rate.

Inventory Glut

With GM’s vehicle inventory at 104 days’ supply, well above a year-end target of about 70 days, executives have said they plan to build 150,000 fewer vehicles in North America in the second half of the year compared with the first six months.

While part of GM’s planned factory downtime relates to plants being retooled for updated models, including all-important full-size pickups, the company also has cut shifts at four passenger-car assembly plants, and a fifth is scheduled to be dropped in September.

Ford plans to reduce North American production in the third quarter by 34,000 vehicles compared with a year earlier. The company last week cited the need to match output with demand and a Kentucky truck plant gearing up to make new Expedition and Lincoln Navigator sport utility vehicles.

Shares of most major automakers have trailed benchmark U.S. stock indexes this year. The exceptions have been Fiat Chrysler, which is poised to benefit from the shift in consumer tastes away from cars toward pickups and sport utility vehicles, and Tesla Inc., which has soared in anticipation of the more affordable Model 3 sedan.

GM shares dropped 3.4 percent last Tuesday, the biggest drop since February, while Ford fell 2.4 percent, the most in almost three months.

Automakers are poised to struggle measuring up to strong second-half results from a year ago as both regular consumers and rental companies have been cutting back on car purchases. Deliveries plunged about 40 percent for both the Chevrolet Impala and Ford Fusion last month.

Trump Setback

Those sorts of numbers are a setback for Trump, who told automakers in March he’d cut them a break on environmental standards and wanted more hiring in return.

“The idea was that some kind of deregulation would make it more attractive to build cars here and that implementing a tariff would create investment, that won’t be relevant at this point,” said Lewis Alexander, chief economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York.

The traditional Detroit automakers are also competing with Japanese and luxury brands offering more SUV models -- and selling them at larger volumes -- than ever before.

“That market share now is being spread amongst a greater competitive set, and the D3 are suffering as a result of that,” said Peter Nagle, senior automotive economist with IHS Markit.

Still, North American factories have honed their focus on pickups and SUVs, so shifting consumer preferences toward bigger autos should be good for U.S. economy, Nagle added.

“We do have a particular expertise in building these vehicles,” he said.