上周五比特幣價(jià)格首次突破6000美元關(guān)口，或許你覺(jué)得已錯(cuò)過(guò)買(mǎi)入機(jī)會(huì),，但看完以下觀點(diǎn)你可能會(huì)改變想法,。

上周真是過(guò)山車一般。僅在本月比特幣價(jià)格漲幅已超過(guò)42%,，較三天前的低點(diǎn)也漲了20%，其收益足令任何一只股票汗顏,，也讓不斷發(fā)出警告聲的摩根大通首席執(zhí)行官杰米·戴蒙和前任美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席本·伯南克打臉,。上周六中午，比特幣成交價(jià)接近6200美元,。如今,，不少投資者都很煩躁，擔(dān)心如果繼續(xù)觀望會(huì)錯(cuò)過(guò)一輩子難得的發(fā)財(cái)機(jī)會(huì)。

當(dāng)然了,，歷史上傳奇地位的投資大佬們，比如沃倫·巴菲特都建議資產(chǎn)價(jià)格高的時(shí)候不要追漲,，都說(shuō)賺錢(qián)最好的方法是低價(jià)買(mǎi)入,，當(dāng)然更好是成功賣(mài)高。但一位頗具影響力的分析師兼投資者做了張圖,，解釋為何他認(rèn)為比特幣價(jià)格還能繼續(xù)漲,。遭遇下個(gè)拐點(diǎn)之前最高可觸及7400美元,。

If you thought you missed your chance to buy Bitcoin when the price broke $6,000 for the first time Friday, there’s one argument that might convince you otherwise.

It’s not for the faint of heart. But with the Bitcoin price up more than 42% this month alone, and up 20% from its low just three days ago, the cryptocurrency’s returns have beaten just about everything available on the stock market, defying repeated warnings from the likes of J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon and former Fed chair Ben Bernanke. As of midday Saturday, Bitcoin was trading at nearly $6,200. Now, investors are fretting they’ll miss out on the windfall of a lifetime if they wait any longer.

Historically, of course, legendary investors such as Warren Buffett have advised against buying assets when their price is high, arguing that the best way to make money is to buy low, and, ideally, sell high. Yet a chart created by an influential analyst and investor illustrates why he predicts the Bitcoin price could go higher still — and in fact, may reach as high as $7,400 before its next significant dip.

一位技術(shù)行業(yè)分析師表示，比特幣價(jià)格走勢(shì)圖類似接近完美的斐波那契數(shù)列,，意味著幣價(jià)可能進(jìn)一步走高。

比特幣走勢(shì)圖基于技術(shù)分析,，這種方法略有爭(zhēng)議,，因?yàn)橘I(mǎi)入決策完全基于某只股票或某種資產(chǎn)的動(dòng)態(tài)，不考慮基本估值,，也不看相關(guān)公司或證券未來(lái)的機(jī)會(huì),。有些投資者抵制這種方法,，認(rèn)為這是在試圖預(yù)測(cè)市場(chǎng),，這點(diǎn)可是出了名的難,。但證據(jù)顯示該分析方法有時(shí)比較準(zhǔn)。

如果要說(shuō)技術(shù)分析最適用的地方,，可能就是比特幣了,，比特幣價(jià)格跟公司無(wú)關(guān)，也沒(méi)聯(lián)上任何貨幣或資產(chǎn),，連實(shí)際應(yīng)用都沒(méi)關(guān)系,。此外,，比特幣價(jià)格基本上反映了炒作和對(duì)長(zhǎng)期潛力的抽象預(yù)期，所以價(jià)格不僅起伏無(wú)定,，還常有不太尋常的波狀走勢(shì),，愛(ài)好者稱之為“波動(dòng)”，創(chuàng)新高之前調(diào)整30%都很正常。

這種情況下,，市場(chǎng)技術(shù)分析師,，也是All Star Charts總裁兼創(chuàng)始人 JC Parets觀察發(fā)現(xiàn)，比特幣價(jià)格每隔一段時(shí)間上升的規(guī)律類似斐波那契數(shù)列,，這種數(shù)列是著名的數(shù)學(xué)現(xiàn)象，自然界里也很常見(jiàn),，從貝殼的內(nèi)部螺旋花紋到松果都符合規(guī)律,。

“說(shuō)起斐波那契數(shù)列，嘿,，比特幣走勢(shì)難道還不夠明顯,？”上周Parets在Stocktoberfest論壇發(fā)表演講時(shí)說(shuō)，該論壇由金融社交媒體Stocktwits在加州科羅納多舉辦,。按照斐波那契數(shù)列規(guī)則,，下一段波動(dòng)的長(zhǎng)度等于前兩個(gè)波段長(zhǎng)度之和,。Parets在之前繪制的圖表中顯示，比特幣從超過(guò)2013年高點(diǎn)后持續(xù)反彈,，基本符合規(guī)律,，即每段上漲的百分比都可按斐波那契數(shù)列準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè),。

“看看，簡(jiǎn)直一點(diǎn)不差,，” Parets補(bǔ)充說(shuō),。他又用下表進(jìn)一步說(shuō)明。

The Bitcoin price chart mirrors a near-perfect Fibonacci sequence, a sign that the cryptocurrency could rise higher still, according to technical analysis.

Chart by JC Parets, All Star Charts

The Bitcoin chart relies on technical analysis, a field of investing that is somewhat controversial because buying decisions are based on the movement of a particular stock or other asset, rather than on the fundamental valuation or future opportunity of the underlying company or security. While some investors reject this approach as trying to time the market — a notoriously difficult task — there is evidence that it can sometimes pay off.

And if there were ever a time to use technical analysis, it might be with Bitcoin, whose price is not tied to any company, nor pegged to any other currency or asset, nor even related to an actual use case. What’s more, the Bitcoin price, which largely trades on hype and abstract visions of its long-term potential, is not only exceptionally volatile, but tends to trade in an unusual undulating formation that enthusiasts have come to call “waves” — where a correction of as much as 30% is common between new highs.

In this case, JC Parets, a chartered market technician who is the president and founder of All Star Charts, observed that the price of Bitcoin has moved upward at intervals resembling the Fibonacci sequence, a famous mathematical pattern that also occurs in nature in everything from the inner spiral of a seashell to pinecones.

“Talk about Fibonacci—I mean, dude, does it get any cleaner than this?” Parets said last week in a presentation at the Stocktoberfest conference, hosted by the financial social media site Stocktwits in Coronado, Calif. With Fibonacci, the length of the next segment is equal to the sum of the two preceding segments. In Parets’ chart above, he shows that Bitcoin’s rallies, since the price surpassed its 2013 high, have followed a similar pattern, where each new leg up corresponds to a percentage increase as predicted by the Fibonacci series.

“I mean, guys, this is like to the penny,” Parets added. He breaks it down further in the chart below.

比特幣每次反彈,，價(jià)格上漲的幅度都可用著名的數(shù)學(xué)公式斐波那契數(shù)列準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)。

不過(guò)Parets表示,，這一規(guī)律僅在比特幣價(jià)格高于4700美元左右時(shí)適用,。但只要能一直保持高位，他相信幣價(jià)可以漲到至少7400美元以上,。目前Parets對(duì)比特幣的預(yù)期價(jià)還相對(duì)保守：6500美元。

“其實(shí)比特幣漲到三倍還是跌倒一文不值,，我一點(diǎn)也不關(guān)心,，真的不關(guān)心。不過(guò)從風(fēng)險(xiǎn)回報(bào)角度來(lái)看，我更希望漲,，”他表示,?！叭绻麕艃r(jià)一直在4700美元以上,，可以按6500美元的目標(biāo)價(jià)做多,，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)回報(bào)率還是很高的,，之后再跌到0美元吧,！”

補(bǔ)充說(shuō)明一點(diǎn)：Parets對(duì)比特幣價(jià)格的預(yù)估并未指明具體時(shí)間，也就是說(shuō)可能會(huì)立刻發(fā)生,，也可能會(huì)花上幾年,，只要一直遵從斐波那契數(shù)列就行。

“是的,，理論上說(shuō)今晚就可能漲到目標(biāo)價(jià),，”比特幣價(jià)格突破6000美元時(shí)他對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示?！罢l(shuí)知道呢,？”（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

With each new Bitcoin rally, its price has moved up in predictable increments corresponding to the Fibonacci sequence, a famous mathematical pattern.

The prediction only holds, Parets maintains, if the Bitcoin price remains above roughly $4,700. But as long as it does, he believes Bitcoin could rise to at least about $7,400, as indicated in the chart. For now, though, Parets is giving Bitcoin a more conservative price target: $6,500.

“I don’t care if Bitcoin triples or goes to zero, I really don’t care at all, but from a risk-reward standpoint, I love it long,” he said. “If we’re above $4,700, we want to be long with a target of $6,500 — that’s a great risk-reward, let it go to zero after that!”

One caveat: Parets’ Bitcoin price prediction does not have any timeline attached, which means it could happen imminently, or not for years — as long as it continues to mirror the Fibonacci sequence.

“Yes, theoretically, it can hit our targets tonight,” he told Fortune after Bitcoin passed the $6,000 mark. “Who knows?”