一般來說市場(chǎng)報(bào)道中出現(xiàn)“期貨溢價(jià)”時(shí),，人們第一反應(yīng)很可能是“說的啥？”另一種反應(yīng)可能是“油輪到哪了,？”因?yàn)槠谪浺鐑r(jià)和意義相似的術(shù)語——現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià)都經(jīng)常用在大宗商品期貨市場(chǎng)中,。但有時(shí)也會(huì)在其他衍生品市場(chǎng)中出現(xiàn)，在不久前的市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩中,，波動(dòng)性期貨通常已經(jīng)從期貨溢價(jià)變成現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià),，有點(diǎn)不正常，甚至有些危險(xiǎn)跡象,。以下是術(shù)語解釋,，以及為何會(huì)受到交易員關(guān)注。

1.期貨溢價(jià)和現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià)是什么意思,？

不同的交易曲線名稱代表了交易員對(duì)某合約未來價(jià)值的不同判斷,。期貨溢價(jià)意思是預(yù)期上漲，現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià)則是預(yù)期下降,。在原油市場(chǎng)實(shí)操中,，如果交易員將以指定價(jià)格買入數(shù)月之后交付的貨物，且該指定價(jià)格高于下月交付的貨物,，那么市場(chǎng)上就存在期貨溢價(jià)。

2.波動(dòng)性是什么意思,？

芝加哥期權(quán)交易所波動(dòng)指數(shù),，簡(jiǎn)稱VIX根據(jù)現(xiàn)時(shí)期權(quán)交易情況編制，期權(quán)是指在一定條件下按照指定價(jià)格買入或賣出證券的權(quán)利,。交易員通常用這些衍生品對(duì)沖市場(chǎng)波動(dòng),。VIX采用期權(quán)價(jià)格，即交易員為不同的市場(chǎng)狀況愿意支付的對(duì)沖價(jià)格計(jì)算標(biāo)普500指數(shù)隱含波動(dòng)率,。

3.VIX曲線通常是什么情況,？

通常是期貨溢價(jià),。因?yàn)閷?duì)未來標(biāo)普指數(shù)的預(yù)期，就像對(duì)天氣的預(yù)期一樣,，通常研究越深覺得不確定性越多,。

4. 現(xiàn)在是什么情況？

整個(gè)VIX期貨曲線處在現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià)狀態(tài),。這意味著投資者認(rèn)為近期內(nèi)波動(dòng)性增加?，F(xiàn)在短期合約比遠(yuǎn)期合約價(jià)格高。

5. 現(xiàn)狀意味著什么,？

普遍市場(chǎng)預(yù)期是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已經(jīng)來臨,。而且預(yù)期沒有削弱的跡象，股市堪稱2011年以來最慘一周,，短期合約與長(zhǎng)期合約之間的利差越發(fā)收窄,。隨著利差壓縮，回歸期貨溢價(jià)越發(fā)困難,，也說明波動(dòng)性增大將常態(tài)化,。

6.這些術(shù)語從哪來的？

很難說,。這些名詞都用了很久,。在1893年吉爾伯特和沙利文倒數(shù)第二部歌劇《烏托邦有限公司》中，一位公司騙子就介紹說：“要推廣公司就要專門學(xué)/不僅要學(xué)期貨溢價(jià)還要學(xué)現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià),?！?

7.關(guān)于油輪如何操作？

還記得期貨溢價(jià)里期貨價(jià)格曲線向上走么,？如果原油交易員猜對(duì)了,，就可以按照當(dāng)前指定價(jià)格買入原油，賣出未來按更高價(jià)格交付的原油期貨合約,，同時(shí)囤積原油,。2008年金融危機(jī)期間，原油價(jià)格雪崩,，投資者曾將9000萬桶原油轉(zhuǎn)為浮動(dòng)存儲(chǔ),。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審稿：夏林

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Usually when “contango” comes up in a markets story, one reaction might be “Huh?” while another might be “Where’s my oil tanker?” That’s because contango and its sister term, backwardation, are used most often in the context of futures markets for commodities. But they can pop up in any derivatives market and during this week’s turmoil, volatility futures have, unusually and perhaps alarmingly, slipped from contango into backwardation. Here’s how to understand what that means and why traders care.

1. What are contango and backwardation?

Names for the curve structures mapping traders’ guesses about what a given contract will be worth in the future. Contango means upward sloping; backwardation, downward. In the oil markets, that means that if traders will pay more to lock in a shipment at a given price several months away than they would for delivery next month, the market’s in contango.

2. What does that mean for volatility?

The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, as it’s known, is compiled based on the current state of trading in options — contracts giving the right to buy or sell securities at specified prices in certain conditions. Traders often use these derivatives to hedge against market fluctuations. The VIX uses options prices — the amounts traders are willing to pay to be prepared for different outcomes — to calculate what’s called the implied volatility for the S&P 500 Index.

3. Where is the VIX curve usually?

In contango. That’s because projections about the outlook for the S&P, like for the weather, normally become more uncertain the further into the future one looks.

4. What’s happening now?

The entire VIX futures curve is in backwardation. That’s a signal that investors expect more volatility in the near-term. Right now, shorter-term contracts are more expensive than longer ones.

5. What does that mean?

That market participants are preoccupied with the risk that’s right in front of their faces. That’s shown no signs of abating, with stocks on track for their worst week since 2011 as the spread between short and longer-term contracts became increasingly negative. Any narrowing of the gap, let alone a return to contango, would be a sign that conditions are normalizing.

6. Where do those terms come from?

That’s hard to say. But they’ve been around for a while. In Gilbert and Sullivan’s penultimate opera, “Utopia, Limited,” in 1893, a corporate shill is introduced with this: “A Company Promoter this with special education/Which teaches what Contango means and also Backwardation.”

7. And what was that about oil tankers?

Remember how that futures price curve is sloping upward in contango? If the oil traders are right, they can make money by buying oil at today’s spot price, selling a futures contract for delivery at the higher price expected in the future and storing the oil in the meantime. After oil prices crashed with the financial crisis of 2008, investors put 90 million barrels of crude into floating storage.