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很少對(duì)有哪家公司的預(yù)測(cè),，會(huì)像特斯拉這樣出現(xiàn)明顯的兩極化。

特斯拉的創(chuàng)始人埃隆·馬斯克經(jīng)常許諾要達(dá)到怎樣的量產(chǎn)率,，公司的財(cái)務(wù)業(yè)績(jī)要達(dá)到怎樣的水平,。馬斯克還說(shuō)，特斯拉已經(jīng)不需要注入新的資本了,，過(guò)去三年,，特斯拉只籌措了80億美元的債務(wù)和股本。然而錢(qián)雖然到位了,，公司卻遲遲達(dá)不到他許諾的目標(biāo),，讓股民不免心里打鼓。

投資者對(duì)特斯拉的前景也出現(xiàn)了兩極化的看法,。持積極態(tài)度的人——比如理財(cái)經(jīng)理羅恩·巴倫認(rèn)為,，十年內(nèi)特斯拉的市值將達(dá)到7000億美元，也就是說(shuō)它的股價(jià)會(huì)增長(zhǎng)十倍,，超過(guò)4000美元,。持消極看法的人,，比如以摩根大通為代表的一票華爾街銀行則認(rèn)為，特斯拉的股價(jià)在年底前會(huì)跌到195美元,，跌幅將達(dá)38%,。

盡管人們對(duì)特斯拉未來(lái)的發(fā)展前景存在很大分歧，但對(duì)于投資者能通過(guò)特斯拉的股票獲得多少收益,，我們卻并非沒(méi)有猜測(cè)的依據(jù),。首先是特斯拉的高估值——這一點(diǎn)其實(shí)對(duì)它遠(yuǎn)期的股市表現(xiàn)很不利。我們可以算算,，它的規(guī)模和盈利能力必須達(dá)到多大,，才能給股民帶來(lái)哪怕是適度的回報(bào)——答案是，它的規(guī)模必須要相當(dāng)大,，盈利能力必須要相當(dāng)高,。

今天，特斯拉的市值已達(dá)到530億美元,。但它手中只握有22億美元的現(xiàn)金,，顯然它的現(xiàn)金缺口依然是很大的。因此我們可以合理推測(cè),，未來(lái)一兩年,，特斯拉必須還得額外募集50億美元的股本，所以我們把它的股市估值算做580億美元,。

假設(shè)投資者對(duì)特斯拉股票的預(yù)期回報(bào)率是8%——考慮到它是一支高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)股票,，8%其實(shí)算不上一個(gè)很高的要求。這樣的話,，到2024年年底,，特斯拉的市值必須增長(zhǎng)51%。也就是說(shuō),，在接下來(lái)的五年零四個(gè)月里,，特斯拉的市值得達(dá)到880億美元。

五年多以后,，特斯拉很可能已經(jīng)成為一家相當(dāng)成熟的公司了,。我們可以合理地將它屆時(shí)的市盈率估計(jì)為16.6。換句話說(shuō),，特斯拉要想給股民帶來(lái)8%的收益,，就得持續(xù)提高銷(xiāo)量和利潤(rùn)，同時(shí)保持穩(wěn)定的市盈率,。這樣的話,，這幾年它必須要保持相當(dāng)驚人的增長(zhǎng)才行。

在這樣的市盈率下，特斯拉的凈收益必須達(dá)到53億美元（即860億除以16.6）,。而2018年上半年,，特斯拉的年化虧損還有31億美元之多，那么它至少得比現(xiàn)在多掙84億美元才行,。

如今,，全球利潤(rùn)最高的主要豪華車(chē)廠商是德國(guó)的寶馬。去年,，寶馬集團(tuán)的稅后利潤(rùn)率是8.8%。有很多分析師認(rèn)為,，馬斯克不僅將推動(dòng)汽車(chē)技術(shù)的進(jìn)步,，同時(shí)特斯拉的盈利也會(huì)超過(guò)傳統(tǒng)車(chē)企。我們姑且相信這種說(shuō)法,，將特斯拉的預(yù)期凈利潤(rùn)假設(shè)在10%,，也就是整整超過(guò)寶馬14個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。在這種情況下,，5年間特斯拉將創(chuàng)造530億美元的銷(xiāo)售額,，也就是年增率達(dá)到31%。

要達(dá)到這個(gè)水平的回報(bào)率,，特斯拉必須搶占豪華車(chē)市場(chǎng)的一大塊份額才辦得到,。（馬斯克表示，Model 3是一款面向大眾市場(chǎng)的車(chē)型,，但考慮到它當(dāng)前的定價(jià),，再考慮到隨著銷(xiāo)量的上漲，它的稅收減免將逐步取消,，因此特斯拉可能仍將被限制在高端市場(chǎng)上,。）

市場(chǎng)研究機(jī)構(gòu)Profshare的一項(xiàng)研究顯示，到2024年,，豪華車(chē)市場(chǎng)的銷(xiāo)量將增長(zhǎng)近11%,，營(yíng)收入將從現(xiàn)在的1000億美元增長(zhǎng)至1730億美元左右，增幅約為73%,。2018年第二季度特斯拉的年化銷(xiāo)售額約為122億美元,，也就是說(shuō)，它僅占據(jù)了該市場(chǎng)12%的份額,。

要想在2024年實(shí)現(xiàn)530億美元的目標(biāo),，特斯拉的銷(xiāo)售額必須增長(zhǎng)400億美元，至少占據(jù)高端車(chē)市場(chǎng)的三成份額,。也就是說(shuō),，它必須吸收這段時(shí)間內(nèi)高端市場(chǎng)54%的增量，只把一小半留給它的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手。

而目前,，“德系三巨頭”寶馬,、奔馳、奧迪控制了80%的高端車(chē)市場(chǎng),，“三巨頭”控制的份額都在23%到26%之間,。特斯拉必須從“三巨頭”手里搶來(lái)14%個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，也就是從每家手中搶來(lái)5%的份額,。

Carsalesbase.com的汽車(chē)業(yè)分析師,、顧問(wèn)巴特·德曼特認(rèn)為：“特斯拉也會(huì)遭到挑戰(zhàn)。現(xiàn)在幾乎所有高端車(chē)企都想進(jìn)軍電動(dòng)汽車(chē)業(yè)務(wù),。奧迪正在向這一領(lǐng)域進(jìn)軍,，寶民已經(jīng)有了初步成果。這是一個(gè)高度競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的市場(chǎng),，對(duì)特斯拉也意味著風(fēng)險(xiǎn),。”

那么,，特斯拉能達(dá)到我們假想的目標(biāo)嗎,？至少它要在一眾強(qiáng)大競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的絞殺中突出重圍。不要忘了,，特斯拉要募集的股本可能遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不止50億,，而且8%的回報(bào)率也許并不能滿足投資者的胃口。另外,，特斯拉的利潤(rùn)也許只能達(dá)到“不錯(cuò)”的水平,，或許并不能達(dá)到世界前10%。在電影《鷹巢喋血戰(zhàn)》中,，亨萊特·鮑嘉曾告訴瑪麗·阿斯特自己為什么不相信她的話： “看看他們的數(shù)量就知道了,。”

特斯拉的成功還需要一個(gè)重要的前提,，那就是到2024年,，路面上跑的高端車(chē)得有一半左右都是電動(dòng)汽車(chē)，這個(gè)比例幾乎是今天的幾倍,。

馬斯克希望他的投資者都相信奇跡,。但接下來(lái)幾年，要想讓特斯拉股票不變成一臺(tái)越跑越慢的老爺車(chē),，他得先創(chuàng)造一個(gè)奇跡才行,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：樸成奎

Few if any enterprises have evoked such wide-ranging forecasts as Tesla.

Founder Elon Musk has spread uncertainty by consistently promising production rates and financial performance that he fails to deliver, as well as pledging that Tesla needs no new capital, only to raise $8 billion in debt and equity over the past three years.

As for investors, their view of Tesla’s future is a study in extremes. At the positive end, esteemed money manager Ron Baron reckons that the electric car maker could be worth $700 billion in a decade, meaning that its share price would jump more than ten fold to exceed $4,000. Leading the Wall Street naysayers is JPMorgan, which predicts that Tesla shares will fall to $195 by December, a decline of 38%.

Although opinions on what Tesla will do covers a gigantic spectrum, what it has to do to enrich investors can be forecast with reasonable accuracy. Starting with Tesla’s rich valuation––a major handicap for its future stock performance––we can calculate how big and profitable it must be to deliver even moderately good returns. And will need to be both plenty big, and plenty profitable.

Today, Tesla boasts a market cap of $53 billion. But since it holds just $2.2 billion cash and will need a lot more, it’s reasonable to estimate that Must will have to raise another $5 billion in equity over the next year or two. So we start with an equity valuation of $58 billion.

Let’s assume investors will require a 8% return on their Tesla shares. That’s probably a bare minimum given that this is the epitome of a high-risk stock. In that case, Tesla would need to grow its value by 51% by the end of 2024. By the end of that five year, four month period, Tesla’s market cap would need to reach $88 billion.

Five-plus years from now, it’s likely that Tesla will be a fairly mature company. A reasonable prediction puts its price-to-earnings multiple by late 2024 at 16.6. In effect, that means investors from that point on would expect Tesla to provide 8% returns on consistently growing sales and profits, but with a constant PE, meaning its years of stupendous growth are in the rear-view mirror.

At that PE, Tesla would be generating net earnings of $5.3 billion ($86 billion divided by 16.6), representing a swing of $8.4 billion from its annualized losses of $3.1 billion through the first half of 2018.

Today, the world’s most profitable major luxury car producer is BMW, which last year posted after-tax margins of 8.8%. But we’ll accept the view of many analysts that Musk can advance not only automative technology, but profitability, and forecast net margins of 10%, a full 14% above BMW. In that scenario, Tesla would be generating sales of $53 billion in just over five years. That’s an annual growth rate of 31%.

Even to achieve these modest returns, Tesla would need to conquer a giant share of the future luxury car market. (Musk says that the Model 3 will be a mass market vehicle, but its current pricing, and the phasing out tax credit as volumes grow, is likely to confine Tesla to the premium category.)

According to a study by market research firm Profshare, the luxury market will grow at nearly 11% through 2024, expanding from current revenues of $100 billion to $173 billion, or 73%. In the second quarter of 2018, Tesla’s sales were running at an annualized rate of $12.2 billion, meaning it holds just over 12% of the market.

At our goal of $53 billion by the end of 2024, Tesla would need to grow its sales by $40 billion, and grab 30% of the premium car market. It would absorb no less than 54% of the category’s total growth over that period, leaving less than half for its competitors.

Today, a trio of luxury brands from three German carmakers BMW, Mercedes-Benz (Daimler), and Audi (Volkswagen), control almost 80% of the premium market, each holding between 23% and 26%. Tesla would need to steal around 14 points of share from the three German champs, or almost five points each.

“Tesla will be challenged,” says Bart Demandt, automotive analyst and consultant at Carsalesbase.com. “Virtually every luxury player wants to be in the electric car business. Audi is moving ahead, and BMW already has a head-start. It’s a highly competitive market that presents a risk for Tesla.”

Can Tesla get there? It would need to lap a field full of formidable competitors. Keep in mind that Tesla might need to raise a lot more than $5 billion in new equity, that an 8% return might not satisfy investors, or that its margins might be only excellent, not a world-besting 10%. A Humphrey Bogart told Mary Astor in The Maltese Falcon on the reasons why he didn’t trust her, “Just look at the number of them.”

Tesla’s road to success also requires by 2024, something like half of all the premium cars on the road are electric vehicles, a multiple of today’s number.

Elon Musk wants his investors to believe in miracles. He’ll need one to make his stock anything but a creaking jalopy in the years ahead.