上周五,，比特幣一路跌向4,000美元,，其它加密貨幣大多同樣遭遇大跌，導(dǎo)致彭博銀河加密貨幣指數(shù)（Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index）11月16日以來的周跌幅擴大至23％,。這是1月初加密貨幣狂熱達(dá)到頂峰以來下跌最嚴(yán)重的一周,。

加密貨幣去年史詩般的反彈超越了史上許多臭名昭著的投資泡沫，之后加密貨幣市場一路潰敗,，蒸發(fā)近7000億美元,，而且尚未看到減弱跡象。引發(fā)2018年暴跌的原因包括市場對監(jiān)管審查加強,、社區(qū)內(nèi)斗,、交易混亂等種種問題的擔(dān)憂,，這種情緒在上周進一步加劇了。雖然大部分虛擬貨幣虧損已超70%,，奧安達(dá)公司（Oanda Corp.）的史蒂芬·英尼斯認(rèn)為,，還沒有看到明顯的指標(biāo)表明市場已經(jīng)觸底。

“還有很多人沒有離場,，”位于新加坡的奧安達(dá)亞太區(qū)交易主管英尼斯在電話中說,。如果比特幣“崩盤了，如果我們開始看到比特幣價格朝著3000美元跌去,，人們就會像看到怪獸一樣,，爭相逃離?！?/p>

伊恩斯表示,，他的基本判斷是短期內(nèi)比特幣交易價格將位于3,500美元至6,500美元之間，1月份可能跌至2,500美元,。

根據(jù)彭博綜合報價,，全球最大的加密貨幣比特幣在上周五的最大跌幅高達(dá)7.6％，紐約時間早上6點36分虧損減小至3.2％,。當(dāng)天交易價格為4,285美元,，幾乎是2017年10月以來的最低收盤價。以太幣,、瑞波幣,、萊特幣等其它加密貨幣均下跌至少4％。CoinMarketCap.com進行追蹤的所有加密貨幣的市值已從1月高峰時期的8,350億美元左右跌至1400億美元,。

這場大潰敗中,，最大的受害者是在價格頂峰時涌入市場的個人投資者，以及英偉達(dá)（Nvidia Corp.）等加密生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的供應(yīng)商,。這家總部位于加州的芯片制造商自10月初以來虧損已達(dá)將近一半,，原因是市場對加密貨幣采礦芯片的需求暴跌，而其游戲部門的表現(xiàn)亦不如人意,。

到目前為止,，加密貨幣崩潰的經(jīng)濟影響有限，部分原因是大多數(shù)主要銀行和機構(gòu)的資金經(jīng)理幾乎或完全沒有接觸虛擬貨幣,。對于大多數(shù)投資者而言,，近期股票市場下跌造成的影響要嚴(yán)重得多：自1月以來，數(shù)字資產(chǎn)虧損共計7000億美元,，與之相比,，僅上周的全球股市就蒸發(fā)了1.3萬億美元。

雖然一些看好加密貨幣的人聲稱,，比特幣和其它加密貨幣可以在傳統(tǒng)金融市場的動蕩中成為投資者的避風(fēng)港,，今年的大跌卻讓這種說法站不住腳,。作為投資者傳統(tǒng)意義上的避風(fēng)港，黃金過去兩周行情上漲,，同期虛擬貨幣卻在下跌,。

“我認(rèn)為加密貨幣遠(yuǎn)沒有其他一些交叉資產(chǎn)交易有吸引力，”英尼斯說,?！包S金價格將大幅上漲，而我們開始看到,，黃金和虛擬貨幣的漲跌呈現(xiàn)反比,。”（財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Agatha

Bitcoin sank toward $4,000 and most of its peers tumbled on last Friday, extending the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index’s decline since Nov. 16 to 23%. That’s the worst weekly slump since crypto-mania peaked in early January.

After an epic rally last year that exceeded many of history’s most notorious bubbles, cryptocurrencies have become mired in a nearly $700 billion rout that shows few signs of abating. Many of the concerns that sparked the 2018 retreat — including increased regulatory scrutiny, community infighting and exchange snafus — have only intensified last week. Even after losses exceeding 70% for most virtual currencies, Oanda Corp.’s Stephen Innes has yet to see strong evidence of a capitulation that would signal a market bottom.

“There’s still a lot of people in this game,” Innes, head of trading for Asia Pacific at Oanda, said by phone from Singapore. If Bitcoin “collapses, if we start to see a run down toward $3,000, this thing is going to be a monster. People will be running for the exits.”

Innes said his base-case forecast is for Bitcoin to trade between $3,500 and $6,500 in the short term, with the potential to fall to $2,500 by January.

The largest cryptocurrency retreated as much as 7.6% on last Friday, before paring losses to 3.2% at 6:36 a.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg composite pricing. At $4,285, it’s trading close to its the lowest closing level since October 2017. Rivals Ether, XRP and Litecoin all declined at least 4%. The market value of all cryptocurrencies tracked by CoinMarketCap.com has sunk to $140 billion, down from about $835 billion at the market peak in January.

The rout’s biggest casualties: individual investors who piled in just as prices peaked, and companies like Nvidia Corp. that supplied the crypto ecosystem. The California-based chipmaker has lost nearly half its value since the start of October as demand for its cryptocurrency mining chips collapsed and results in its gaming division disappointed.

The economic impact of the crypto collapse has so far been limited, in part because most major banks and institutional money managers have little to no exposure to virtual currencies. For most investors, recent declines in equity markets have arguably been far more important: the $700 billion slump in digital assets since January compares with $1.3 trillion lost from the market value of global shares just last week.

While some crypto bulls have argued that Bitcoin and its peers would act as havens from turmoil in traditional financial markets, this year’s losses have undercut those claims. Gold, a traditional haven for investors, has climbed in the past two weeks as virtual currencies tumbled.

“I don’t think coins are going to be anywhere near as attractive as some of the other cross-asset plays,” Innes said. “Gold prices are going to jump considerably higher and there’s an inverse relationship we’re starting to see with gold and coins.”