摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase & Co.）與華爾街的許多機構(gòu)一樣，認(rèn)為股市將在2019年大幅上漲,，按照公司的預(yù)測,，股民明年會過得更好。

以杜布拉夫科·拉克斯-布賈斯和馬科·科蘭諾維奇為首的戰(zhàn)略分析師在上周五給客戶的一份照會中表示,，由于公司利潤增長,，投資者也愿意接受更高的估值,，標(biāo)普500指數(shù)（S&P 500 Index）明年年底之前會在現(xiàn)有的基礎(chǔ)上實現(xiàn)17%的漲幅，達(dá)到3,100點,。

這個預(yù)期值要稍微高于彭博社（Bloomberg）調(diào)查的14位其他戰(zhàn)略分析師給出的平均值3,056點,。

摩根大通寫道，隨著各公司投入超過1.5萬億美元來進(jìn)行分紅和回購股票,，那些在基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)達(dá)到九年牛市最低點后轉(zhuǎn)身離去的投資者有可能回心轉(zhuǎn)意,。該投行表示,，對沖基金的持股量尤其低于正常值，只需要讓其回到平均水平,，就意味著有5,000億美元涌入股市,。

戰(zhàn)略分析師在照會中寫道：“我們認(rèn)為是周期性的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力量促使了上行的貿(mào)易陣痛，尤其是在高度增長的行業(yè),。即使各公司2019年的收入增速較之2018年有所放緩,，也依舊屬于盈利范疇,，收入也會繼續(xù)增加?！?/p>

摩根大通預(yù)計,，標(biāo)普500公司明年的每股累計收益為178美元,，同比增長8%。這份預(yù)測認(rèn)為美國與中國達(dá)成貿(mào)易協(xié)定的可能性要大于關(guān)稅摩擦升級的概率,。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：嚴(yán)匡正

Next year will be better for stock investors, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co., which is joining other Wall Street bulls in forecasting big gains for 2019.

The S&P 500 Index will rise about 17% from current levels to 3,100 by the end of next year, driven by profit growth and investors’ willingness to accept higher valuations, strategists led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas and Marko Kolanovic wrote in a note to clients on last Friday.

The prediction is slightly higher than the average estimate of 3,056 from 14 other strategists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Investors who have turned away from the stock market as the benchmark index heads to one of its worst performances in the nine-year bull market will be lured back as companies spend more than $1.5 trillion on dividends and share repurchases, JPMorgan wrote. Hedge funds, in particular, hold fewer stocks than normal, and just a return to average would mean $500 billion pouring into U.S. equities, according to the investment bank.

“We see the upside pain-trade (is) driven by cyclical leadership, in particular, growth sectors,” the strategists wrote in the note. “Even though earnings are expected to decelerate relative to 2018, they should remain positive and continue to grow.”

S&P 500 companies will earn a cumulative $178 a share next year, an 8 percent increase, the firm projected. That estimate assumed a greater probability of a U.S.-China trade deal than tariff escalation.