雖然很少有投資者注意到或者想注意到,，但華爾街預(yù)計(jì)2019年大部分時(shí)間里股市將遭遇收益寒冬,，不過會(huì)因?yàn)槟甑罪j升至新的高度得到拯救?！昂币徽f十分可信,。本應(yīng)該把股市從平庸甚至更差的預(yù)期中解救出來的大解凍并不會(huì)發(fā)生。

2019年的牛市行情中,，雖然收益不會(huì)像去年那樣大幅上漲,，但仍將上揚(yáng)5%至10%，考慮到2018年全年四個(gè)季度都表現(xiàn)驚人,，打破了各種紀(jì)錄,，想要保持同樣成績(jī)實(shí)在不易，所以這個(gè)數(shù)字也已經(jīng)十分不錯(cuò)。

人們普遍認(rèn)為2019年會(huì)在史上最佳年份的基礎(chǔ)上適度增長(zhǎng),，但投資者應(yīng)該警惕這種看法,。證券分析師對(duì)未來收益的預(yù)測(cè)幾乎總是過于樂觀，甚至是太過樂觀,。因此隨著收益發(fā)布季的來臨,，分析師對(duì)第四季度收益的預(yù)測(cè)就會(huì)大幅下跌，公布的收益總是比預(yù)測(cè)低很多,。

令人不安的是,，分析師預(yù)見2019年不僅僅是第一季度、而是前九個(gè)月幾乎都不會(huì)有增長(zhǎng),。金融數(shù)據(jù)和分析公司FactSet調(diào)研了分析師對(duì)未來收益發(fā)展的普遍看法,。FactSet在1月25日發(fā)布的《透視收益》（“Earnings Insight”）報(bào)告中指出，華爾街預(yù)計(jì)第一季度每股收益僅增長(zhǎng)0.7％,，截至9月30日,，前三個(gè)季度增幅為2.1％，即從122.68美元略增至125.27美元,。

因此,，股票分析師預(yù)測(cè)今年大部分時(shí)間通脹調(diào)整后的每股收益漲幅幾乎為零。華爾街的悲觀看法的事情應(yīng)當(dāng)引起警惕,。如果銀行和經(jīng)紀(jì)人認(rèn)為情況會(huì)變差,，實(shí)際數(shù)字會(huì)更差,。事實(shí)上,，之所以認(rèn)為2019年仍將獲得不錯(cuò)收益，完全是因?yàn)槿藗冾A(yù)測(cè)第四季度將出現(xiàn)井噴式增長(zhǎng),。FactSet表示,，這種想法很普遍，但需要2019年第四季度同比增長(zhǎng)11.5%達(dá)到每股44.92美元,。如果2019年收尾能如此強(qiáng)勢(shì),，全年每股盈利增長(zhǎng)率將提升至6.3％。

現(xiàn)在預(yù)測(cè)出現(xiàn)驚人的后撤,，因此哪怕是中等程度的盈利預(yù)測(cè)能否實(shí)現(xiàn)也十分值得懷疑,。預(yù)估值越激進(jìn)，越不靠譜,，越容易受到重大下跌風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響,。歡迎再次來到童話樂園。

全年收益預(yù)測(cè)迅速下跌,，童話正在褪色,。截至12月31日，預(yù)測(cè)值為7.8％。第四季度上漲接近12％的可能性有多大,？預(yù)測(cè)中的44.92美元將比去年第三季度的史上最佳季度業(yè)績(jī)高5％,。分析師預(yù)測(cè)，標(biāo)普500成分公司2019年的收入增長(zhǎng)僅為4.8％,，比去年增幅下降近4個(gè)百分點(diǎn),，而這一數(shù)字同樣可能因?yàn)檫^度樂觀而有所夸大。因此實(shí)際上,，華爾街預(yù)計(jì)今年的利潤(rùn)作為國(guó)民收入,、財(cái)政收入和股東權(quán)益的一部分，將在2018年歷史新高的基礎(chǔ)上再次上漲,，推動(dòng)每股收益上升6.3%,。第四季度的利潤(rùn)額更需要遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高出2018年史詩般的紀(jì)錄。

分析師對(duì)2019年大部分時(shí)間“實(shí)際”利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)為零的驚人預(yù)測(cè)應(yīng)該擴(kuò)大至2019年全年,。盈利不會(huì)總是推翻經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的引力模型,，如果投資者能真正讀懂經(jīng)濟(jì)信號(hào)（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Agatha

Though few investors are noticing, or want to, Wall Street is predicting a chill in earnings for most of 2019—rescued by a surge to new heights at the close of the year. The “chill” scenario is convincing. The big defrost that’s supposed to salvage the outlook from mediocre or worse––is not.

The bull case for 2019 holds that although earnings growth won’t prove nearly as strong as last year, profits will still rise in the mid-to-high single digits, not bad at all, considering that 2018 is a tough act to follow, a blockbuster four quarter span that shattered all records.

Investors should be wary of the widespread view that 2019 will modestly improve on the best year ever. Securities analysts’ forecasts for future earnings are almost always overly, or even wildly, optimistic. The estimates made for a quarter nine months hence drop sharply as that earnings season gets closer and closer, and the reported profits are almost always a lot lower than the forecasts posted months earlier.

What’s unsettling is that analysts already foresee almost no profit growth, not just for Q1, but for the first nine months of 2019. FactSet, the financial data and analytics firm, polls analysts to establish their consensus readings on the course of future profits. In its “Earnings Insight” report released on January 25, FactSet noted that Wall Street forecasts EPS gains of just .7% in Q1, and 2.1% for the three quarters ending September 30, registering a tiny increase from $122.68 to $125.27.

So equity analysts anticipate almost zero inflation-adjusted growth in earnings-per-share for most of the year. That Wall Street is turning pessimistic should sound an alarm. When the banks and brokers think things will get bad, look for the actual numbers to be worse. In fact, the view that 2019 will still be a pretty good year depends entirely on predictions for a blowout fourth quarter. According to FactSet, the consensus calls for a jump of 11.5% over Q4 of 2018 to $44.92 a share. That powerhouse finale would raise EPS gains for the year to 6.3%.

Those astoundingly backloaded estimates render even the middling profit forecast extremely questionable. The farther out the estimate, the more unreliable, and more vulnerable to a radical downshift, it becomes. Welcome once again to fantasyland.

The fantasy is fading, as shown by the rapid drop in that full-year profit forecast. As late as December 31, the reading stood at 7.8%. How likely is an almost 12% resurgence in Q4? The predicted $44.92 would exceed the highest quarterly result ever achieved, notched in Q3 of last year, by almost 5%. Analysts predict that S&P 500 revenues will wax just 4.8% in 2019, a drop of almost 4 points from last year, and a figure that, once again, is likely inflated by over-optimism. So in effect, Wall Street anticipates that margins for the year will rise from their already never-before-seen heights as a share of national income, revenues and shareholder equity to generate 6.3% increases in EPS. And by Q4, those margins would need to tower well above the epic, never-before-seen levels of 2018.

BThe analyst community’s surprise prediction of zero “real” profit growth for most of 2019 should be extended to all of 2019. Earnings don’t defy economic gravity forever, and if investors really read its signals, Wall Street––in its own way––is acknowledging that gravity is taking hold once again.