股市再創(chuàng)新高，對(duì)那些已經(jīng)持倉(cāng)的股民而言自是再好不過(guò),。不過(guò)股票直線上漲也有不利之處,。手握現(xiàn)金，尋求低價(jià)買(mǎi)入的投資者此時(shí)只能繼續(xù)觀望,。面對(duì)日益高企的股價(jià),，那些想把儲(chǔ)蓄資金投入股市的人不得不按兵不動(dòng)。

高歌猛進(jìn)的股價(jià)也給長(zhǎng)期投資者設(shè)下了困局,，因?yàn)槿缃窆蓛r(jià)處于高位,，將來(lái)再有大幅增長(zhǎng)的可能性已經(jīng)不高。過(guò)去十年里,，標(biāo)普500指數(shù)中經(jīng)過(guò)通貨膨脹調(diào)整后的平均股票價(jià)格已經(jīng)達(dá)到了每股盈利的約30倍（也就是所謂的周期調(diào)整市盈率）,。歷史上看，在這個(gè)水準(zhǔn)的市盈率之后,，往往緊接著令人失望的低回報(bào)期,。

這就是為何投資者在股市慘淡之際購(gòu)買(mǎi)股票會(huì)感到更加放心。好消息是,，即使在股市整體上揚(yáng)的情況下,，也總有一些熊市存在。在逢低買(mǎi)入的投資者眼里,，有三類資產(chǎn)并未被這輪牛市所帶動(dòng),，如今顯得尤為特立獨(dú)行。

New highs in the stock markets are great for those who already own stocks. But there is a downside when stocks seemingly do nothing but rise. Any investor who’s been holding cash, waiting for lower prices and a better entry point, has had to keep waiting. And those deploying new savings into the markets have had to do so at higher and higher prices.

Those rising prices are also a catch-22 for long-term investors, because pricey markets today make impressive future gains less likely. The S&P 500 currently trades at about 30 times its average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years (the so-called CAPE ratio). Historically, levels anywhere near that high have almost always preceded periods of disappointing returns.

That’s why many investors are more comfortable buying shares when there’s blood in the streets. And the good news for those investors is that there will always be a bear market somewhere, even when the broad market is killing it. Three asset classes that have been left behind during this bull run stand out in particular right now in the eyes of bargain hunters:

能源股

石油價(jià)格在2008年6月達(dá)到每桶150美元的巔峰,。從那以后,，水力壓裂法的革命帶來(lái)了新的產(chǎn)出，再加上低通貨膨脹,，石油價(jià)格從那以后已經(jīng)下跌了三分之二,，能源公司的利潤(rùn)也受到沉痛打擊。2008年中期至今,，能源股一直是標(biāo)普500指數(shù)中表現(xiàn)最差的類型,，甚至和倒數(shù)第二都相距甚遠(yuǎn)：基金The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF（XLE）的跌幅超過(guò)13%，而同期標(biāo)普500指數(shù)整體卻有超過(guò)200%的漲幅,。僅有的安慰獎(jiǎng)是高股息：例如,，基金The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF目前的股息為3.8%，是整體市場(chǎng)平均水平的兩倍有余,。

貴金屬和礦業(yè)股

這些商品生產(chǎn)者的股票往往表現(xiàn)出很大的波動(dòng)性,，因?yàn)樗鼈儗?duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和商品本身不確定的供需情況高度敏感。共同基金Vanguard Global Capital Cycles（VGPMX）很好地體現(xiàn)了金屬市場(chǎng)和相關(guān)商品市場(chǎng)的情況,，它在這段時(shí)間里連跟上市場(chǎng)的腳步都做不到：過(guò)去十年里,，該基金跌幅近50%,。（相對(duì)平庸的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)又一次成為元兇。）投資者青睞貴金屬和礦業(yè)股,，往往因?yàn)樗鼈兣c整體市場(chǎng)走勢(shì)關(guān)聯(lián)不大,，可以讓投資組合變得更加多樣化。不過(guò),，持有不相關(guān)的資產(chǎn)經(jīng)常也意味著投資者會(huì)在市場(chǎng)其他股票突飛猛進(jìn)時(shí)吞下重大損失,。

價(jià)值股

互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅后，價(jià)值股——那些與對(duì)應(yīng)企業(yè)的價(jià)值相比估值過(guò)低的股票——漲幅大大超過(guò)增長(zhǎng)股,。不過(guò)金融危機(jī)以來(lái),，在亞馬遜（Amazon）、Netflix,、谷歌（Google）和Facebook等在投資者面前占盡風(fēng)光的公司的帶領(lǐng)下,，增長(zhǎng)股把價(jià)值股遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)甩在了身后?？萍紕?chuàng)新,、尤其是軟件創(chuàng)新對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響力日益加大，專利,、版權(quán),、商標(biāo)等無(wú)形資產(chǎn)價(jià)值不斷提高，投資者也有了在資本世界額外付費(fèi)的意愿,，這一切共同推動(dòng)著股價(jià)大步邁進(jìn),。

然而，投資者認(rèn)為拐點(diǎn)將近,。投資巨頭AQR Capital Management的掌門(mén)人克利夫·阿斯尼斯在最近一篇文章中通過(guò)一系列指標(biāo)指出,，增長(zhǎng)股的價(jià)格達(dá)到了互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫以來(lái)的新高。他寫(xiě)道,，與之相反：“除去技術(shù)泡沫,，價(jià)值股的價(jià)值則是這一時(shí)段的最低水平?！?

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當(dāng)然,，某股很便宜，不代表它不會(huì)變得更便宜,。正如我們的例證所示,，這幾類股票表現(xiàn)糟糕都是有原因的。這讓投資者對(duì)目前的狀況感到疑惑：你似乎只能選擇投資那些基礎(chǔ)良好卻價(jià)格較高的股票,，或局勢(shì)惡化卻價(jià)格較低的股票,。沒(méi)錯(cuò)，歷史告訴我們,，經(jīng)濟(jì)的循環(huán)終究會(huì)開(kāi)動(dòng)起來(lái),，金屬股和價(jià)值股又將成為主角,，但它不會(huì)告訴我們具體時(shí)間,。

最好的做法可能是試圖放下對(duì)“具體時(shí)間”的擔(dān)憂,。許多投資者（包括我的公司）傾向于選擇多樣化投資的長(zhǎng)期策略。在實(shí)踐中,，這往往意味著在遭遇最嚴(yán)重打擊的那塊市場(chǎng)中投入部分資金,，從而利用低價(jià)進(jìn)入的優(yōu)勢(shì)。在決定是否買(mǎi)入受到重創(chuàng)的資產(chǎn)時(shí),，請(qǐng)牢記以下經(jīng)驗(yàn)：

沒(méi)有萬(wàn)無(wú)一失的萬(wàn)金油策略

價(jià)值投資經(jīng)過(guò)專業(yè)學(xué)者,、職業(yè)投資者和標(biāo)志性的沃倫·巴非特的反復(fù)審視，被認(rèn)為是一種長(zhǎng)期有效的策略,。不過(guò)即使合理的投資策略也注定會(huì)經(jīng)歷表現(xiàn)不佳的痛苦期,。畢竟，任何資產(chǎn)獲得超出通脹率的收益,，唯一的原因在于持有它們具有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)——“合理”并不意味著“無(wú)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”,。

多樣化投資意味著你得一直說(shuō)抱歉

多樣化投資的主要原因是避免把你的錢(qián)長(zhǎng)期集中到表現(xiàn)糟糕的資產(chǎn)上。不過(guò)擴(kuò)大投資面也意味著你的投資組合中至少會(huì)有一部分走向夭折,，盡管其他的能夠蓬勃發(fā)展,。你要接受偶爾的失敗，這樣才能增加獲勝的概率,。

不要忘記調(diào)整資產(chǎn)分配

只有你定期重新調(diào)整資產(chǎn)分配,，多樣化投資的策略才能起效。本質(zhì)上,，這意味著賣(mài)出部分表現(xiàn)出色的資產(chǎn),，并買(mǎi)入一些境況不佳的資產(chǎn)。上文中提到的所有類型的資產(chǎn),，在失寵之前都曾經(jīng)有過(guò)投資回報(bào)率很高的時(shí)期,。你之前有沒(méi)有在它們風(fēng)光無(wú)限時(shí)減持股份，從而將它們的權(quán)重調(diào)整到目標(biāo)水平,？如果沒(méi)有,，它們帶來(lái)的虧損會(huì)給你造成更大痛苦——也會(huì)讓你更難在此時(shí)作出買(mǎi)入的決定，盡管從戰(zhàn)略上看,，你應(yīng)該這么做了,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

本文作者本·卡爾森（Ben Carlson）是里薩茲財(cái)富管理公司（Ritholtz Wealth Management）機(jī)構(gòu)資產(chǎn)管理部門(mén)的主任。他的公司在價(jià)值型股票基金中持有份額,，但不是本文中提到的任何具體基金,。

本文另一版本登載于《財(cái)富》雜志2020年1月刊，標(biāo)題為《在牛市中購(gòu)買(mǎi)“熊股”》,。

譯者：嚴(yán)匡正

Energy stocks

Oil prices topped $150 a barrel in June 2008. Since then, new production unleashed by the fracking revolution, combined with low inflation, has helped drive oil prices down by two-thirds—while hammering energy-company profits. Energy has been by far the worst-performing sector of the S&P 500 since mid-2008, and it’s not even close: The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) has fallen more than 13%, versus a gain of more than 200% for the S&P 500. One consolation prize is high dividends: XLE, for example, currently yields 3.8%, more than twice what the broader market yields.

Precious metals and mining stocks

These commodity-producer stocks often exhibit wild volatility because they’re unusually sensitive to economic growth and fluctuating supply and demand for the commodities themselves. Vanguard Global Capital Cycles (VGPMX), a mutual fund that’s a good proxy for the metals markets and related commodities, has done worse than just trail the market during this cycle: Over the past 10 years, the fund is down nearly 50%. (Again, relatively modest global growth is a culprit.) Investors often seek metals and mining stocks because they have a low correlation to the broader market, offering the benefits of a diversified portfolio. But sometimes owning uncorrelated assets means eating big losses while the rest of the market screams higher.

Value stocks

After the dotcom bubble deflated, value stocks—stocks that are cheap relative to the value of their underlying businesses—went on a run of huge outperformance over growth stocks. But growth has beaten the pants off value since the financial crisis (see graphic), led by high-growth companies such as Amazon, Netflix, Google, and Facebook that have monopolized investor mindshare. The growing economic impact of tech innovation, particularly in software; the rising value of intangible assets like patents, copyrights, and trademarks; and the willingness of investors to pay extra for growth in a world awash in capital have all contributed to growth’s edge.

Still, investors think a turning point could be near. Using a number of metrics, Cliff ?Asness, head of investment giant AQR Capital Management, showed in a recent piece that growth stocks are more expensive now than at any time other than the dotcom bubble. In contrast, Asness writes, “Excluding the tech bubble, the value of value is the cheapest it’s ever been.”

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Of course, just because something is cheap doesn’t mean it can’t get cheaper. As our examples show, each of these categories has a black eye for a reason. That’s what makes the current situation for investors so confusing: It can seem like your only choices are to invest in assets with good fundamentals but high prices or to invest in assets with deteriorating fundamentals but low prices. Yes, history tells us that economic cycles will eventually boost energy and metals stocks and value stocks again, but it won’t tell us when.

The best move may be to worry less about “when.” Many investors (including my firm) favor a long-term strategy that involves broad diversification. In practice, that often means investing some capital in the areas of the market that have been hit the hardest, to take advantage of the cheap entry point. When deciding whether to wade into beaten-down asset classes, here are some lessons to keep in mind:

Nothing works all the time

Value investing has been repeatedly vetted by academics, professional investors, and the iconic Warren Buffett as an approach that works over the long term. But even sound investment strategies are bound to go through painful periods of underperformance. After all, the only reason any assets earn a premium over the rate of inflation is because owning them involves risks—and “sound” doesn’t mean “risk-free.”

Diversification means always having to say you’re sorry

The main reason to diversify is to avoid concentrating your money in a terrible-performing asset for an extended period. But spreading your bets also means that at least part of your portfolio will be sucking wind while the rest of it sprints ahead. You’re accepting the occasional strikeout to increase your odds of winning the game.

Don’t forget to rebalance

Diversification works only if you periodically rebalance your asset allocations. In essence, this means selling a little bit of what has done well to buy a little bit of what hasn’t. All of the asset classes above experienced strong returns before their fall from grace. Did you sell off a bit during the good times to bring them back to their target weights? If not, their losses have been even more painful for you—which could make it even harder to buy now, when strategy might dictate that you should.?

Ben Carlson is director of institutional asset management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. His firm has positions in value stock funds, but not in any specific fund mentioned here.

A version of this article appears in the January 2020 issue of Fortune with the headline “Buying ‘Bears’ in a Bull Market.”