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雜志訂閱

曾丑聞纏身的瑞銀是如何起死回生的?

BERNHARD WARNER
2020-10-03

瑞銀在疫情期間的狀況可能比十年前還好一些,。

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埃爾默蒂在光榮離任前揭開(kāi)了瑞銀轉(zhuǎn)敗為勝的奧秘,。圖片來(lái)源:WEI LENG TAY——彭博社/GETTY IMAGES

2012年2月,,剛就任瑞銀集團(tuán)首席執(zhí)行官一職的塞爾吉奧·埃爾默蒂召開(kāi)了首次全體會(huì)議,。最早的那段日子里,集團(tuán)股價(jià)總算有所回暖,,但員工們的士氣卻依舊低迷,。正如瑞士銀行業(yè)巨頭的一位資深人士在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)所說(shuō),“那個(gè)時(shí)候,,如果你在瑞銀集團(tuán)里工作的話,,就連郵遞員都會(huì)抱怨你?!?/font>

那一年,,剛好150周歲的瑞銀集團(tuán)深陷泥沼。瑞銀成為了受美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)影響最大的外國(guó)銀行,,其客戶們的投資組合也遭受了重創(chuàng),。早在2008年,瑞銀幾乎已確定要承擔(dān)巨額虧損,,但歷史性的一刻發(fā)生了:瑞士政府決定向瑞銀提供緊急財(cái)政援助,。擊潰瑞銀集團(tuán)的最后一根稻草出現(xiàn)在2011年9月:為了填補(bǔ)虧損,,瑞銀駐倫敦的一名操盤(pán)手進(jìn)行了一系列虛構(gòu)的交易,最終導(dǎo)致瑞銀損失了23億美元,。

“我還清楚地記得聽(tīng)到這個(gè)消息的時(shí)候我在哪兒,”常駐蘇黎世的銀行記者盧卡斯·海西格說(shuō),,“但我心想,,‘不可能吧。瑞銀,?又是瑞銀,?!又爆出丑聞了,?’”

當(dāng)時(shí)的瑞銀集團(tuán)首席執(zhí)行官郭儒博看出,,這不是個(gè)好兆頭。于是幾天后他就辭職了,,向埃爾默蒂敞開(kāi)了機(jī)遇之門,。

在首次員工會(huì)議上,這位新領(lǐng)導(dǎo)就化解了屋內(nèi)的緊張氣氛,。他問(wèn)說(shuō),,你們之中有多少人因?yàn)檫@份工作而覺(jué)得自豪?他又說(shuō),,如果不覺(jué)得自豪,,就請(qǐng)舉起手。埃爾默蒂難以置信地?fù)u了搖頭,,回憶說(shuō):“你根本想象不到,,有多少人舉起了手?!?/font>

出生于瑞士的埃爾默蒂一上任就提出了一項(xiàng)徹底的重組計(jì)劃,,徹底清洗這家丑聞纏身的銀行。安全且可靠的理財(cái)業(yè)務(wù)成為了瑞銀的新賣點(diǎn),,在全球金融危機(jī)期間虧損最為慘重的投行業(yè)務(wù)則被砍掉,。

在首席財(cái)務(wù)官眼中,這是一項(xiàng)非常不錯(cuò)的重組計(jì)劃,,但卻徹底打亂了普通員工們的步伐。沒(méi)錯(cuò),,該計(jì)劃將(按照監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的要求)擴(kuò)充銀行的資本儲(chǔ)備,,并清空賬面上的不良貸款。但此舉也并非完全沒(méi)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn),。在次貸危機(jī)期間,,瑞銀與許多超級(jí)富豪客戶之間的關(guān)系都降到了冰點(diǎn),,為了實(shí)現(xiàn)該計(jì)劃,瑞銀就需重建與這些客戶之間的聯(lián)系,。

現(xiàn)年60歲的埃爾默蒂將于11月1日從瑞銀離職,,他的繼任者則是荷蘭國(guó)際集團(tuán)的掌門人拉爾夫·哈默斯。8月底時(shí),,埃爾默蒂在位于意大利-瑞士邊境的盧加諾家庭辦公室內(nèi),,通過(guò)Skype接受了《財(cái)富》雜志的采訪,講述了這段長(zhǎng)達(dá)10年的工作經(jīng)歷,。

埃爾默蒂曾是名操盤(pán)手及投資銀行家,,職業(yè)生涯的大部分時(shí)間都身處國(guó)外。他并不是那種傳統(tǒng)意義上的瑞士銀行家,。過(guò)去,,瑞銀總會(huì)從瑞士軍方招募大批員工。多年以來(lái),,該集團(tuán)的企業(yè)文化都非常嚴(yán)格且隱秘,。海西格解釋說(shuō):“只有在晉升到將軍級(jí)別之后,你才有可能進(jìn)入瑞銀的最高管理層,?!?/font>

2011年,50歲的埃爾默蒂離開(kāi)意大利裕信銀行,,加入瑞銀集團(tuán),,負(fù)責(zé)歐洲、中東和非洲地區(qū)的業(yè)務(wù),。不同尋常的是,,幾個(gè)月之后,他就登上了最高峰,。這位前投資銀行家上任后做的第一件事就是:砍掉瑞銀的投行業(yè)務(wù),。起初,這幾件事都沒(méi)能讓他在理財(cái)領(lǐng)域成為一個(gè)可信的勝利者,。

埃爾默蒂卻迅速發(fā)現(xiàn)了理財(cái)領(lǐng)域的吸引力,。

價(jià)值1350億美元的理財(cái)業(yè)務(wù)有著巨大的增長(zhǎng)空間?!霸谶^(guò)去的20年里,,財(cái)富增長(zhǎng)的一個(gè)顯著特征就是非凡的韌性,”波士頓咨詢公司在6月份的年度理財(cái)報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道,,“盡管經(jīng)歷了多次危機(jī),,但事實(shí)證明,財(cái)富增長(zhǎng)依然非常強(qiáng)勁,即便經(jīng)歷了最嚴(yán)峻的考驗(yàn),,也能觸底反彈,。”

富人階層正在以進(jìn)入現(xiàn)代以來(lái)最快的速度擴(kuò)充自身的財(cái)富,。在過(guò)去的20年里,,個(gè)人財(cái)富值增長(zhǎng)了近兩倍,從1999年的80萬(wàn)億美元增長(zhǎng)到了2019年底的226萬(wàn)億美元,。為了滿足頂層人士的需求,,全球最頂級(jí)的私人銀行家和理財(cái)大師們也因此獲得了源源不斷的酬金。

埃爾默蒂說(shuō),,“像財(cái)富創(chuàng)造和人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化這樣體量龐大的長(zhǎng)線型趨勢(shì)正推動(dòng)著理財(cái)行業(yè)不斷前進(jìn),。無(wú)論是在新興市場(chǎng)還是在西方經(jīng)濟(jì)體內(nèi)——無(wú)論是否出現(xiàn)了疫情,這都是不爭(zhēng)的事實(shí),?!?/font>

迄今為止,理財(cái)仍是大型金融機(jī)構(gòu)內(nèi)未被金融科技新貴嚴(yán)重顛覆的領(lǐng)域之一,。超高凈值客戶(至少擁有3000萬(wàn)美元個(gè)人財(cái)富的客戶)不會(huì)被那些免費(fèi)投資應(yīng)用程序擾亂心神,。他們需要多樣化的投資選擇來(lái)讓自己的錢增值。他們常常會(huì)在股票和債券之外尋找商業(yè)機(jī)會(huì),。理財(cái)經(jīng)理常會(huì)聽(tīng)到這樣一系列的問(wèn)題:我該不該投資給一家越南的制造商,?托斯卡納區(qū)的葡萄園怎么樣?我怎么才能加入這家有上市潛力的科技初創(chuàng)企業(yè),?

早在全球金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)之前,,瑞銀的理財(cái)團(tuán)隊(duì)就已經(jīng)擴(kuò)充到了相當(dāng)?shù)囊?guī)模。它是首批發(fā)現(xiàn)亞洲的經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮中藏著巨大機(jī)遇的歐洲大型銀行之一,。在埃爾默蒂的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)之下,,瑞銀在大力發(fā)展海外業(yè)務(wù)的同時(shí),也重建了與歐洲富裕階層之間的關(guān)系,。此外,,瑞銀削減了投行業(yè)務(wù)的規(guī)模,把資源分配給了其它業(yè)務(wù),。埃爾默蒂解釋說(shuō):“我剛加入瑞銀的時(shí)候,,投行所獲資本占風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加權(quán)資產(chǎn)的比例約為75%。而如今,,就只剩下了三分之一,。這也更好地反映了我們的商業(yè)模式和預(yù)計(jì)的營(yíng)收量?!?/font>

投資者們像老鷹一樣緊盯著銀行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加權(quán)比率,。這項(xiàng)數(shù)值越低,銀行就越有能力靈活地將利潤(rùn)再投資到真正能提高收益的領(lǐng)域:科技、人才招募,、收購(gòu)或向財(cái)力更雄厚的客戶放貸等。但若是一家銀行每個(gè)季度都要拿出數(shù)十億美元來(lái)支撐風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更高的資產(chǎn),,那么它用于投資和增收的資本就會(huì)相應(yīng)地縮水,。

埃爾默蒂成為首席執(zhí)行官的第一年里,瑞銀都處于清理模式之中,。從2011到2012年間,,瑞銀加持了約1700億瑞士法郎(合1850億美元)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加權(quán)資產(chǎn),并將其賣給了出價(jià)最高的買家,。其中很大一部分——387億美元——都被重新整合進(jìn)了專項(xiàng)計(jì)劃,,并在瑞士國(guó)家銀行的管控下對(duì)外出售。

重組計(jì)劃取得了成效,。他說(shuō):“我們花了幾個(gè)季度的時(shí)間讓市場(chǎng)相信,,瑞銀正在朝著正確的方向前進(jìn)。得到了市場(chǎng)的信任之后,,我們就決定加快實(shí)行這一戰(zhàn)略,。”

截至2013年,,瑞銀已經(jīng)成為了世界范圍內(nèi)規(guī)模最大的理財(cái)機(jī)構(gòu),。最終,全球一半的億萬(wàn)富翁都成為了他們的客戶,。如今,,瑞銀掌管的全球理財(cái)資產(chǎn)已達(dá)2.6萬(wàn)億美元,同市的瑞信銀行等競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手也隨即行動(dòng)了起來(lái),。

埃爾默蒂任職期間,,理財(cái)部門吸引了3620億美元的“新增凈資本”。該數(shù)值備受私人銀行家關(guān)注,,被視為獲取客戶的指標(biāo),。對(duì)瑞銀及其股東來(lái)說(shuō),讓富裕階層變得更富裕向來(lái)都是個(gè)極好的策略,。在過(guò)去10年里,,理財(cái)業(yè)務(wù)產(chǎn)生的穩(wěn)定酬勞使得瑞銀的資本基礎(chǔ)增長(zhǎng)了110億美元。此外,,這項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù)幫助瑞銀連續(xù)幾年實(shí)現(xiàn)了盈利,,股息回報(bào)率也超過(guò)了200億美元。

埃爾默蒂表示,,新冠疫情從根本上改變了理財(cái)業(yè)務(wù)——尤其是在技術(shù)方面,。他說(shuō):“舉例來(lái)講,我們會(huì)定期召開(kāi)會(huì)議,向我們的客戶告知相關(guān)的主旋律,。一般我們會(huì)有,,比方說(shuō),100個(gè)客戶來(lái)參加線下活動(dòng),。但由于現(xiàn)在只能召開(kāi)網(wǎng)絡(luò)會(huì)議,,所以參加的人數(shù)就增加了三四倍?!?/font>

金融評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)Scope Ratings位于柏林,,其執(zhí)行董事波林·蘭伯特表示,沒(méi)有哪家銀行能抵抗住疫情的沖擊,,但擁有理財(cái)業(yè)務(wù)和低壞賬風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的瑞銀集團(tuán)幾乎做到了這一點(diǎn),。“這種業(yè)務(wù)組合的商業(yè)模式很好地適應(yīng)了新冠疫情下的狀況,?!?/font>

蘭伯特指出,一系列指標(biāo)均能說(shuō)明,,瑞銀有著銀行業(yè)內(nèi)最健康的借貸賬目和最多樣化的收入來(lái)源,,在當(dāng)前的低利率時(shí)代,這些因素都至關(guān)重要,。

從業(yè)務(wù)范圍來(lái)看,,酬勞和傭金——即便是在經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)時(shí)期,也帶來(lái)了非常穩(wěn)定的收益——占瑞銀總收益的近60%,,歐洲的其它競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手都望塵莫及,。與之相比,瑞銀的借貸撥備可以說(shuō)是微乎其微,。平均每借出100美元,,就相當(dāng)于只擱置了32美分,這不僅說(shuō)明瑞銀客戶拖欠貸款的可能性相對(duì)較低,,也證明投資者們不必?fù)?dān)心2008年的金融危機(jī)會(huì)再次上演,。

蘭伯特表示,如今,,投資者們?cè)俅伟呀栀J狀況視為評(píng)估銀行的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)是一種明智之舉,,因?yàn)樵谛鹿谝咔槠陂g,借貸可能就會(huì)成為巨額負(fù)債,。

埃爾默蒂及其團(tuán)隊(duì)在第二季度做到了許多競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手無(wú)法做到的事,。瑞銀集團(tuán)公布的季度凈利潤(rùn)為12億美元,遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出了2.5億美元的盈虧底線,。更重要的是,,埃爾默蒂宣布,,瑞銀的發(fā)展曲線已呈上升趨勢(shì)——和他們最大的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手拉開(kāi)了巨大的差距。同一季度,,摩根大通,、富國(guó)銀行和花旗集團(tuán)不得不撥備總共近280億美元填補(bǔ)壞賬,而瑞銀集團(tuán)只需撥備2.72億美元,。

到目前為止,,投資者們都對(duì)瑞銀集團(tuán)的股票保持著嚴(yán)密關(guān)注:雖然今年瑞銀股票表現(xiàn)平平,但路孚特Datastream公布的世界銀行指數(shù)已經(jīng)跌到了-28.4%,,與之相比,瑞銀股票已經(jīng)很不錯(cuò)了,。

和其它銀行一樣,,瑞銀也面臨著巨大的挑戰(zhàn)。未來(lái)數(shù)年,,全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)都將呈不穩(wěn)定的態(tài)勢(shì),。世界最大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的利率幾乎都爬不到正值。市場(chǎng)將繼續(xù)動(dòng)蕩,。這些都不是促進(jìn)價(jià)值股上漲的有利條件,,銀行價(jià)值股就更別提了。

但由于逐漸贏回了員工,、客戶和市場(chǎng)的信任,,瑞銀在疫情期間的狀況可能比十年前還好一些。從很大程度上來(lái)說(shuō),,這都是埃爾默蒂的功勞,,也是那些在十年前的第一次會(huì)議上表明自己的觀點(diǎn),并在這些年里堅(jiān)持表達(dá)的員工們的功勞,?!八信e了手的人都告訴我,他們真的在乎瑞銀的未來(lái),,”他說(shuō),,“你知道嗎?如果不是全心全意為銀行考慮的人,,可能根本就不會(huì)舉手,。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

本文以“A Swiss surprise”為題刊登在《財(cái)富》雜志2020年10月刊上,。

譯者:殷圓圓

2012年2月,,剛就任瑞銀集團(tuán)首席執(zhí)行官一職的塞爾吉奧·埃爾默蒂召開(kāi)了首次全體會(huì)議。最早的那段日子里,,集團(tuán)股價(jià)總算有所回暖,,但員工們的士氣卻依舊低迷,。正如瑞士銀行業(yè)巨頭的一位資深人士在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)所說(shuō),“那個(gè)時(shí)候,,如果你在瑞銀集團(tuán)里工作的話,,就連郵遞員都會(huì)抱怨你?!?/font>

那一年,剛好150周歲的瑞銀集團(tuán)深陷泥沼,。瑞銀成為了受美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)影響最大的外國(guó)銀行,,其客戶們的投資組合也遭受了重創(chuàng)。早在2008年,,瑞銀幾乎已確定要承擔(dān)巨額虧損,,但歷史性的一刻發(fā)生了:瑞士政府決定向瑞銀提供緊急財(cái)政援助。擊潰瑞銀集團(tuán)的最后一根稻草出現(xiàn)在2011年9月:為了填補(bǔ)虧損,,瑞銀駐倫敦的一名操盤(pán)手進(jìn)行了一系列虛構(gòu)的交易,,最終導(dǎo)致瑞銀損失了23億美元。

“我還清楚地記得聽(tīng)到這個(gè)消息的時(shí)候我在哪兒,,”常駐蘇黎世的銀行記者盧卡斯·海西格說(shuō),,“但我心想,‘不可能吧,。瑞銀,?又是瑞銀?,!又爆出丑聞了,?’”

當(dāng)時(shí)的瑞銀集團(tuán)首席執(zhí)行官郭儒博看出,這不是個(gè)好兆頭,。于是幾天后他就辭職了,,向埃爾默蒂敞開(kāi)了機(jī)遇之門。

在首次員工會(huì)議上,,這位新領(lǐng)導(dǎo)就化解了屋內(nèi)的緊張氣氛,。他問(wèn)說(shuō),你們之中有多少人因?yàn)檫@份工作而覺(jué)得自豪,?他又說(shuō),,如果不覺(jué)得自豪,,就請(qǐng)舉起手,。埃爾默蒂難以置信地?fù)u了搖頭,回憶說(shuō):“你根本想象不到,,有多少人舉起了手,。”

出生于瑞士的埃爾默蒂一上任就提出了一項(xiàng)徹底的重組計(jì)劃,,徹底清洗這家丑聞纏身的銀行。安全且可靠的理財(cái)業(yè)務(wù)成為了瑞銀的新賣點(diǎn),,在全球金融危機(jī)期間虧損最為慘重的投行業(yè)務(wù)則被砍掉。

在首席財(cái)務(wù)官眼中,,這是一項(xiàng)非常不錯(cuò)的重組計(jì)劃,,但卻徹底打亂了普通員工們的步伐,。沒(méi)錯(cuò),,該計(jì)劃將(按照監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的要求)擴(kuò)充銀行的資本儲(chǔ)備,,并清空賬面上的不良貸款。但此舉也并非完全沒(méi)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn),。在次貸危機(jī)期間,,瑞銀與許多超級(jí)富豪客戶之間的關(guān)系都降到了冰點(diǎn),為了實(shí)現(xiàn)該計(jì)劃,,瑞銀就需重建與這些客戶之間的聯(lián)系,。

現(xiàn)年60歲的埃爾默蒂將于11月1日從瑞銀離職,他的繼任者則是荷蘭國(guó)際集團(tuán)的掌門人拉爾夫·哈默斯,。8月底時(shí),,埃爾默蒂在位于意大利-瑞士邊境的盧加諾家庭辦公室內(nèi),通過(guò)Skype接受了《財(cái)富》雜志的采訪,,講述了這段長(zhǎng)達(dá)10年的工作經(jīng)歷,。

埃爾默蒂曾是名操盤(pán)手及投資銀行家,職業(yè)生涯的大部分時(shí)間都身處國(guó)外,。他并不是那種傳統(tǒng)意義上的瑞士銀行家,。過(guò)去,瑞銀總會(huì)從瑞士軍方招募大批員工,。多年以來(lái),,該集團(tuán)的企業(yè)文化都非常嚴(yán)格且隱秘。海西格解釋說(shuō):“只有在晉升到將軍級(jí)別之后,,你才有可能進(jìn)入瑞銀的最高管理層,?!?/font>

2011年,,50歲的埃爾默蒂離開(kāi)意大利裕信銀行,,加入瑞銀集團(tuán),負(fù)責(zé)歐洲,、中東和非洲地區(qū)的業(yè)務(wù),。不同尋常的是,幾個(gè)月之后,,他就登上了最高峰,。這位前投資銀行家上任后做的第一件事就是:砍掉瑞銀的投行業(yè)務(wù)。起初,,這幾件事都沒(méi)能讓他在理財(cái)領(lǐng)域成為一個(gè)可信的勝利者,。

埃爾默蒂卻迅速發(fā)現(xiàn)了理財(cái)領(lǐng)域的吸引力。

價(jià)值1350億美元的理財(cái)業(yè)務(wù)有著巨大的增長(zhǎng)空間,?!霸谶^(guò)去的20年里,財(cái)富增長(zhǎng)的一個(gè)顯著特征就是非凡的韌性,,”波士頓咨詢公司在6月份的年度理財(cái)報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道,,“盡管經(jīng)歷了多次危機(jī),但事實(shí)證明,,財(cái)富增長(zhǎng)依然非常強(qiáng)勁,,即便經(jīng)歷了最嚴(yán)峻的考驗(yàn),也能觸底反彈,?!?/font>

富人階層正在以進(jìn)入現(xiàn)代以來(lái)最快的速度擴(kuò)充自身的財(cái)富。在過(guò)去的20年里,,個(gè)人財(cái)富值增長(zhǎng)了近兩倍,,從1999年的80萬(wàn)億美元增長(zhǎng)到了2019年底的226萬(wàn)億美元。為了滿足頂層人士的需求,,全球最頂級(jí)的私人銀行家和理財(cái)大師們也因此獲得了源源不斷的酬金,。

埃爾默蒂說(shuō),“像財(cái)富創(chuàng)造和人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化這樣體量龐大的長(zhǎng)線型趨勢(shì)正推動(dòng)著理財(cái)行業(yè)不斷前進(jìn),。無(wú)論是在新興市場(chǎng)還是在西方經(jīng)濟(jì)體內(nèi)——無(wú)論是否出現(xiàn)了疫情,,這都是不爭(zhēng)的事實(shí)?!?/font>

迄今為止,,理財(cái)仍是大型金融機(jī)構(gòu)內(nèi)未被金融科技新貴嚴(yán)重顛覆的領(lǐng)域之一。超高凈值客戶(至少擁有3000萬(wàn)美元個(gè)人財(cái)富的客戶)不會(huì)被那些免費(fèi)投資應(yīng)用程序擾亂心神,。他們需要多樣化的投資選擇來(lái)讓自己的錢增值,。他們常常會(huì)在股票和債券之外尋找商業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)。理財(cái)經(jīng)理常會(huì)聽(tīng)到這樣一系列的問(wèn)題:我該不該投資給一家越南的制造商,?托斯卡納區(qū)的葡萄園怎么樣,?我怎么才能加入這家有上市潛力的科技初創(chuàng)企業(yè),?

早在全球金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)之前,瑞銀的理財(cái)團(tuán)隊(duì)就已經(jīng)擴(kuò)充到了相當(dāng)?shù)囊?guī)模,。它是首批發(fā)現(xiàn)亞洲的經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮中藏著巨大機(jī)遇的歐洲大型銀行之一,。在埃爾默蒂的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)之下,瑞銀在大力發(fā)展海外業(yè)務(wù)的同時(shí),,也重建了與歐洲富裕階層之間的關(guān)系,。此外,瑞銀削減了投行業(yè)務(wù)的規(guī)模,,把資源分配給了其它業(yè)務(wù),。埃爾默蒂解釋說(shuō):“我剛加入瑞銀的時(shí)候,投行所獲資本占風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加權(quán)資產(chǎn)的比例約為75%,。而如今,,就只剩下了三分之一。這也更好地反映了我們的商業(yè)模式和預(yù)計(jì)的營(yíng)收量,?!?/font>

投資者們像老鷹一樣緊盯著銀行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加權(quán)比率。這項(xiàng)數(shù)值越低,,銀行就越有能力靈活地將利潤(rùn)再投資到真正能提高收益的領(lǐng)域:科技,、人才招募、收購(gòu)或向財(cái)力更雄厚的客戶放貸等,。但若是一家銀行每個(gè)季度都要拿出數(shù)十億美元來(lái)支撐風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更高的資產(chǎn),那么它用于投資和增收的資本就會(huì)相應(yīng)地縮水,。

埃爾默蒂成為首席執(zhí)行官的第一年里,,瑞銀都處于清理模式之中。從2011到2012年間,,瑞銀加持了約1700億瑞士法郎(合1850億美元)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加權(quán)資產(chǎn),,并將其賣給了出價(jià)最高的買家。其中很大一部分——387億美元——都被重新整合進(jìn)了專項(xiàng)計(jì)劃,,并在瑞士國(guó)家銀行的管控下對(duì)外出售,。

重組計(jì)劃取得了成效。他說(shuō):“我們花了幾個(gè)季度的時(shí)間讓市場(chǎng)相信,,瑞銀正在朝著正確的方向前進(jìn),。得到了市場(chǎng)的信任之后,我們就決定加快實(shí)行這一戰(zhàn)略,?!?/font>

截至2013年,瑞銀已經(jīng)成為了世界范圍內(nèi)規(guī)模最大的理財(cái)機(jī)構(gòu),。最終,,全球一半的億萬(wàn)富翁都成為了他們的客戶,。如今,瑞銀掌管的全球理財(cái)資產(chǎn)已達(dá)2.6萬(wàn)億美元,,同市的瑞信銀行等競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手也隨即行動(dòng)了起來(lái),。

埃爾默蒂任職期間,理財(cái)部門吸引了3620億美元的“新增凈資本”,。該數(shù)值備受私人銀行家關(guān)注,,被視為獲取客戶的指標(biāo)。對(duì)瑞銀及其股東來(lái)說(shuō),,讓富裕階層變得更富裕向來(lái)都是個(gè)極好的策略,。在過(guò)去10年里,理財(cái)業(yè)務(wù)產(chǎn)生的穩(wěn)定酬勞使得瑞銀的資本基礎(chǔ)增長(zhǎng)了110億美元,。此外,,這項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù)幫助瑞銀連續(xù)幾年實(shí)現(xiàn)了盈利,股息回報(bào)率也超過(guò)了200億美元,。

埃爾默蒂表示,,新冠疫情從根本上改變了理財(cái)業(yè)務(wù)——尤其是在技術(shù)方面。他說(shuō):“舉例來(lái)講,,我們會(huì)定期召開(kāi)會(huì)議,,向我們的客戶告知相關(guān)的主旋律。一般我們會(huì)有,,比方說(shuō),,100個(gè)客戶來(lái)參加線下活動(dòng)。但由于現(xiàn)在只能召開(kāi)網(wǎng)絡(luò)會(huì)議,,所以參加的人數(shù)就增加了三四倍,。”

金融評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)Scope Ratings位于柏林,,其執(zhí)行董事波林·蘭伯特表示,,沒(méi)有哪家銀行能抵抗住疫情的沖擊,但擁有理財(cái)業(yè)務(wù)和低壞賬風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的瑞銀集團(tuán)幾乎做到了這一點(diǎn),?!斑@種業(yè)務(wù)組合的商業(yè)模式很好地適應(yīng)了新冠疫情下的狀況?!?/font>

蘭伯特指出,,一系列指標(biāo)均能說(shuō)明,瑞銀有著銀行業(yè)內(nèi)最健康的借貸賬目和最多樣化的收入來(lái)源,,在當(dāng)前的低利率時(shí)代,,這些因素都至關(guān)重要。

從業(yè)務(wù)范圍來(lái)看,酬勞和傭金——即便是在經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)時(shí)期,,也帶來(lái)了非常穩(wěn)定的收益——占瑞銀總收益的近60%,,歐洲的其它競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手都望塵莫及。與之相比,,瑞銀的借貸撥備可以說(shuō)是微乎其微,。平均每借出100美元,就相當(dāng)于只擱置了32美分,,這不僅說(shuō)明瑞銀客戶拖欠貸款的可能性相對(duì)較低,,也證明投資者們不必?fù)?dān)心2008年的金融危機(jī)會(huì)再次上演。

蘭伯特表示,,如今,,投資者們?cè)俅伟呀栀J狀況視為評(píng)估銀行的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)是一種明智之舉,因?yàn)樵谛鹿谝咔槠陂g,,借貸可能就會(huì)成為巨額負(fù)債,。

埃爾默蒂及其團(tuán)隊(duì)在第二季度做到了許多競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手無(wú)法做到的事。瑞銀集團(tuán)公布的季度凈利潤(rùn)為12億美元,,遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出了2.5億美元的盈虧底線,。更重要的是,埃爾默蒂宣布,,瑞銀的發(fā)展曲線已呈上升趨勢(shì)——和他們最大的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手拉開(kāi)了巨大的差距,。同一季度,摩根大通,、富國(guó)銀行和花旗集團(tuán)不得不撥備總共近280億美元填補(bǔ)壞賬,,而瑞銀集團(tuán)只需撥備2.72億美元。

到目前為止,,投資者們都對(duì)瑞銀集團(tuán)的股票保持著嚴(yán)密關(guān)注:雖然今年瑞銀股票表現(xiàn)平平,,但路孚特Datastream公布的世界銀行指數(shù)已經(jīng)跌到了-28.4%,與之相比,,瑞銀股票已經(jīng)很不錯(cuò)了。

和其它銀行一樣,,瑞銀也面臨著巨大的挑戰(zhàn),。未來(lái)數(shù)年,全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)都將呈不穩(wěn)定的態(tài)勢(shì),。世界最大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的利率幾乎都爬不到正值,。市場(chǎng)將繼續(xù)動(dòng)蕩。這些都不是促進(jìn)價(jià)值股上漲的有利條件,,銀行價(jià)值股就更別提了,。

但由于逐漸贏回了員工、客戶和市場(chǎng)的信任,瑞銀在疫情期間的狀況可能比十年前還好一些,。從很大程度上來(lái)說(shuō),,這都是埃爾默蒂的功勞,也是那些在十年前的第一次會(huì)議上表明自己的觀點(diǎn),,并在這些年里堅(jiān)持表達(dá)的員工們的功勞,。“所有舉了手的人都告訴我,,他們真的在乎瑞銀的未來(lái),,”他說(shuō),“你知道嗎,?如果不是全心全意為銀行考慮的人,,可能根本就不會(huì)舉手?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

本文以“A Swiss surprise”為題刊登在《財(cái)富》雜志2020年10月刊上,。

譯者:殷圓圓

In February 2012, Sergio Ermotti called his first town hall meeting as UBS Group’s chief executive. The stock was finally recovering in those early days, but staff morale wasn’t. As one veteran of the Swiss banking giant tells Fortune, “If you had worked for UBS in those days, the mailman would grumble at you.”

The woes of UBS, which turned 150 years old that year, had taken on the urgency of a national crisis. UBS became the foreign bank most exposed to America’s subprime mortgage debacle, decimating clients’ portfolios. In 2008 the Swiss government stepped in with a historic bailout package after UBS booked a mountain of losses. The last straw came in September 2011. A UBS trader in London executed a series of fictitious trades to cover his losing positions, moves that ultimately cost the bank $2.3 billion.

“I remember exactly where I was when I heard the news,” says Lukas H?ssig, a longtime chronicler of the Swiss banking world based in Zurich. “I just thought, ‘No fucking way. UBS? Again?! Another scandal?’”

Oswald J. Grübel saw the writing on the wall. He resigned as UBS’s CEO days later, opening the door to Ermotti.

At that first staff meeting, the new boss addressed the tension in the room straightaway. How many of you, he asked, are proud to work for this bank? If you’re not, he instructed, raise your hands. “You would not believe how many people raised their hands,” he recalls, shaking his head in lingering disbelief.

As his first task, the Swiss-born Ermotti presented a radical restructuring plan to clean up the scandal-ridden bank. The safe and dependable wealth management business would be the new focus. The investment banking business, the biggest drag during the global financial crisis, would get the chop. It was a reinvention plan a CFO would love, but it rumpled the rank and file. Yes, it would boost the bank’s capital reserves (per regulators’ requirements) while cleaning up the dodgy loans on its books. But it wasn’t without risk. To work, the bank would need to rebuild ties with many of the same ultrawealthy clients it had burned during the mortgage crisis.

Ermotti, 60, will step down from his post at UBS on Nov. 1, replaced by ING Group’s former boss, Ralph Hamers. Ermotti spoke to Fortune in late August about his decade-long run in a lengthy Skype call from his home office in Lugano, on the Italian-Swiss border.

A former trader and investment banker who spent much of his career outside his homeland, Ermotti isn’t your typical Swiss banker. In past generations, UBS would recruit heavily from the Swiss military. For years, the bank’s culture remained regimented, secretive. “Only if you made it to the rank of general would you be considered for the highest executive ranks at UBS,” H?ssig explains.

Ermotti was 50 in 2011 when he joined UBS from Italy’s UniCredit to run the bank’s EMEA divisions. Extraordinarily, he seized the top post months later. Job one for the former investment banker: Cut that same business at UBS down to size. None of that made him a credible champion for wealth management at first.

But Ermotti immediately saw its appeal.

Wealth management is a $135 billion business with huge upside. “One striking feature of wealth growth over the past two decades has been its extraordinary resilience,” BCG wrote in its annual wealth management report in June. “Despite multiple crises, wealth growth has proved to be stubbornly robust, springing back from even the most severe tests.”

The rich are getting fabulously richer at the fastest pace in modern history. Over the past 20 years, personal financial wealth has nearly tripled, rising from $80 trillion in 1999 to $226 trillion by the end of 2019. Catering to the needs of the top tier has caused a steady flow of commissions and fees to rain upon the world’s top private bankers and wealth management gurus.

Ermotti calls these “the tremendous secular trends, such as wealth creation and demographic change, that are driving today’s wealth management industry. This is as true in emerging markets as it is in Western economies—pandemic or no pandemic.”

So far, wealth management is one of the few parts of Big Finance that have yet to be severely disrupted by fintech upstarts. Ultrahigh-net-worth clients (those with a personal fortune of at least $30 million) are not so dazzled by no-fee investing apps. They’re demanding diversified investment options to make their money grow. They’re often looking beyond stocks and bonds, to business opportunities. Wealth managers get a range of questions: Should I invest in a manufacturer in Vietnam? What about a vineyard in Tuscany? How do I get in on that IPO-track tech startup?

UBS had been beefing up its wealth management team well before the global financial crisis. It was one of first big European banks to spot the huge opportunity in Asia’s wealth boom. Under Ermotti, it ramped up the business abroad while rebuilding ties with affluent Europeans. At the same time, it shrank the investment bank to boost growth elsewhere. “The capital allocated to the investment bank as a percentage of risk-weighted assets was around 75% when I joined UBS. It’s a third today, and a better reflection of our business model and expected business returns,” Ermotti explains. Investors watch a bank’s risk-weighted ratio like a hawk. The lower the number, the more flexibility a bank has to reinvest profits into things that actually grow the business: technology, recruiting talent, acquisitions, or loaning out money to more affluent clients. But a bank that’s required to put aside billions every quarter to backstop ever riskier assets is a bank with less ammunition to invest and grow.

In Ermotti’s first year as CEO, the bank was in cleanup mode. In 2011–12, UBS bundled up roughly 170 billion Swiss francs ($185 billion) in risk-weighted assets on its books and sold them off to the highest bidder. A big tranche—$38.7 billion—was repackaged into a single-purpose vehicle and sold off under the management of the Swiss National Bank.

The restructuring paid off. “It took a few quarters to convince the markets that we were moving in the right direction. And when we got them convinced, we decided to accelerate the strategy,” he says.

By 2013, UBS had become the globe’s biggest wealth manager, eventually calling half the world’s billionaires, clients. Today, UBS has grown its global wealth management assets under management to $2.6 trillion, and competitors, including crosstown rival Credit Suisse, are quickly trying to catch up.

During Ermotti’s tenure, the wealth management unit has pulled in $362 billion in “net new money,” a much-watched metric among private bankers that serves as a proxy for customer acquisition. Making wealthy people wealthier has been exceedingly good strategy for UBS and its shareholders. The steady fees from wealth management helped grow its capital base by $11 billion in the past decade. Plus it helped produce a string of profitable years, and return more than $20 billion in dividends.

Ermotti says that COVID has fundamentally changed the wealth management business—especially when it comes to technology. “For example, we regularly run conferences for our clients where we cover big themes. Usually, we’d get, let’s say, 100 clients attending an in-person event. But because we’ve been forced to do it online, we’ve been getting three times, four times more people attending our conferences,” he says.

No bank is pandemic-proof, but UBS with its mix of wealth management and low bad-loan exposure has come close, observes Pauline Lambert, executive director of financial institutions ratings at Berlin-based Scope Ratings. “That’s a business mix and a business model that’s well suited to the COVID environment.”

Lambert points to a string of metrics that show UBS has one of the healthiest loan books and most diversified revenue streams in the banking sector, crucial in this era of low interest rates. According to Scope, fees and commissions—a highly stable inflow, even during an economic crisis—represents nearly 60% of UBS’s revenues, well above its European rivals. Meanwhile, its loan and credit provisions are minuscule. It’s had to put aside just 32¢, on average, for every $100 it’s loaned out, suggesting not only that the prospect of UBS clients defaulting on their loan obligations is relatively remote, but also that investors need not fear a replay of the 2008 financial crisis.

Lambert says investors again today would be wise to assess banks by the strength of their loan books, which could become huge liabilities in the age of COVID.

In the second quarter, Ermotti and his team delivered where so many rivals could not. UBS reported a $1.2 billion quarterly net profit that amounted to a monster $250 million bottom-line “beat.” More important, Ermotti declared that the bank’s outlook already was looking up—a far cry from his biggest competitors. In the same quarter, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup had to set aside nearly a combined $28 billion to cover bad loans vs. just $272 million for UBS.

Investors, so far, are eyeing UBS stock cautiously: Though shares are flat year to date, that compares with a negative 28.4% performance of the Refinitiv Datastream world banks index.

Like all banks, UBS faces enormous challenges. Global economic growth will be unsteady for years. Interest rates will barely budge above zero in the world’s biggest economies. And the markets will continue to be volatile. These are not favorable conditions for a value stock, let alone a bank value stock.

But in clawing back from employees, clients, and the markets much of the respect the bank had once lost, UBS paradoxically may be in better shape today during a pandemic than it was a decade ago. That’s in no small part due to Ermotti but also to those employees who spoke up during that first meeting a decade ago and have continued to deliver since. “All those raised hands told me they really care about the future of the bank,” he says. “If you’re not committed to the bank, you know what? You’re probably not going to raise your hand.”

A version of this article appears in the October 2020 issue of Fortune with the headline "A Swiss surprise."

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