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“大辭職潮”重創(chuàng)零售業(yè)

Kathy Gramling
2022-02-01

零售商正面臨一場完美風(fēng)暴,供應(yīng)鏈和勞工問題加劇了新冠疫情引發(fā)的危機(jī),。

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圖片來源:ALEX WONG—GETTY IMAGES

我們在全球疫情最為嚴(yán)重的時(shí)候邁入了2021年,,這場疫情導(dǎo)致了勞工短缺和供應(yīng)鏈問題以及數(shù)十年以來的最高通脹率,。2021年在一場完美風(fēng)暴中畫上了句號(hào),消費(fèi)者徹底改變了他們對購物方式的認(rèn)知,,而且是永久性的,。

安永(EY)最近的未來消費(fèi)指數(shù)(Future Consumer Index)顯示,,超過半數(shù)的美國民眾認(rèn)為,在新冠疫情期間所養(yǎng)成的行為習(xí)慣如今已經(jīng)常態(tài)化,,而且49%的民眾認(rèn)為其生活在后疫情時(shí)代依然會(huì)與以往存在巨大的差異,。

早在新冠疫情出現(xiàn)之前,就有傳聞稱消費(fèi)產(chǎn)品和零售行業(yè)已經(jīng)變得十分脆弱,。新冠疫情及其變種只是加速了這些問題,,并助長其發(fā)展成為避無可避的態(tài)勢。我們無需去問“它何時(shí)才能結(jié)束,?”,,而是應(yīng)該意識(shí)到這場完美風(fēng)暴難以在近期結(jié)束,同時(shí)消費(fèi)者已經(jīng)重新調(diào)整了對零售商和品牌的期許,。

大辭職潮重創(chuàng)零售業(yè),,而且其影響遠(yuǎn)未結(jié)束

2021年9月,創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的68.5萬名零售商關(guān)門大吉,。同一月,,440萬美國民眾辭去了工作。除了面對大辭職潮(Great Resignation)之外,,零售行業(yè)將不得不應(yīng)對規(guī)模日漸萎縮,、關(guān)注點(diǎn)不斷變化的勞動(dòng)力資源。

雇員,,尤其是Z世代,,不再愿意為那些沒有明確目的,以及無法滿足其不斷變化的公平薪酬和靈活性需求的公司工作,。最近安永的Z世代市場細(xì)分調(diào)查的發(fā)現(xiàn)甚至更能夠代表未來的趨勢,,近三分之二的Z世代受調(diào)對象認(rèn)為,自己所效力的雇主應(yīng)該與其有共同的價(jià)值,。

在這個(gè)工作條件并非普通的朝九晚五的行業(yè),,這一現(xiàn)象更是如此,而且可能更具挑戰(zhàn)性,。2022年,,零售商將需要重新定義其人才計(jì)劃,以及股東和雇主價(jià)值的意義,。對零售商來說,,勞動(dòng)力是品牌體驗(yàn)的前沿陣地。當(dāng)勞動(dòng)力不存在或缺乏專注度時(shí),,服務(wù)品質(zhì)和消費(fèi)體驗(yàn)就會(huì)出現(xiàn)問題,。

盡管通脹當(dāng)頭,但消費(fèi)者愿意花錢

我們看到,,通脹率創(chuàng)下了39年來的新高,。然而,,消費(fèi)者依然愿意(而且希望)在生活成本增長的情況下去花錢,其原因可能并非是薪資的不斷上漲,,而是不斷限制消費(fèi)者購買所需商品能力的供應(yīng)鏈并發(fā)癥,。消費(fèi)者有錢去肆意揮霍,而且也愿意購買可以買到的商品,,哪怕是為此支付溢價(jià),。

盡管消費(fèi)者在當(dāng)前愿意購買價(jià)格更高的物品,但這一意愿能夠維持多長的時(shí)間,?轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)在哪,?不斷變化的利率和市場環(huán)境,以及病毒新變種持續(xù)的影響和持續(xù)的地緣政治不穩(wěn)定性,,將決定消費(fèi)者對高價(jià)格的耐受時(shí)長,。

從長遠(yuǎn)來看,消費(fèi)者依然十分看重價(jià)格的重要性:我們的美國未來消費(fèi)指數(shù)(U.S. Future Consumer Index)顯示,,58%的民眾在未來將更加關(guān)注“物有所值”的理念,。因此,一旦供應(yīng)鏈恢復(fù)如初,,受抑需求成為過去時(shí),,品牌和零售商或?qū)⒅匦抡{(diào)整,以應(yīng)對價(jià)格帶來的服務(wù)和品質(zhì)新要求,。

從“最后一公里”到“開始一公里”

多年來,,各大公司尤為關(guān)注于最后一公里的交付,各大零售商和品牌都將這一流程作為重點(diǎn),,以支持向線上模式或BOPIS(在線購買,在店面取貨)送貨模式的轉(zhuǎn)變,。然而,,他們并未意識(shí)到,價(jià)值的創(chuàng)造卻始于最初的一公里,。

在新冠疫情沖擊前便已經(jīng)存在于零售行業(yè)的脆弱和短缺問題如今已經(jīng)暴露無遺,。生產(chǎn)繼續(xù)受到原材料短缺的威脅。船只無法在港口卸貨,??ㄜ囘\(yùn)力余量所剩無幾。從很多方面來看,,所有的這一切對供應(yīng)鏈來說都是一場災(zāi)難,。

在今后的一年中,零售商和品牌將不得不改變其關(guān)注點(diǎn),,確保將數(shù)據(jù)和流程用于支持原材料采購和物流,。最初的一公里需要根據(jù)“消費(fèi)者至上”原則進(jìn)行重新定義,。

隨著道德采購以及可持續(xù)性繼續(xù)深入人心,這一點(diǎn)將變得越來越重要,。消費(fèi)者對可持續(xù)性的看法發(fā)生了改變,,而且零售商和消費(fèi)品公司也有必要對其期許做出相應(yīng)的調(diào)整。我們的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,,三分之一的美國消費(fèi)者強(qiáng)烈地感到,,各大公司應(yīng)該專注于產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)的負(fù)責(zé)任生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)。這一趨勢強(qiáng)化了妥善處理好最初一公里的重要性,。

重大調(diào)整

新冠疫情前的傳言如今變得甚囂塵上,。其意料之外的影響幾乎迫使各大零售商和品牌進(jìn)行重大調(diào)整,不僅僅是迎合消費(fèi)者看法的短期調(diào)整,,同時(shí)還有長期的根本性轉(zhuǎn)變,。

行業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者需要圍繞人才計(jì)劃的重構(gòu),以納入機(jī)器人和自動(dòng)化為目標(biāo)的供應(yīng)鏈重設(shè),,以及環(huán)境,、社會(huì)和公司治理(ESG)價(jià)值的捕捉,做出重大決策,。對零售商和品牌來說,,這是一個(gè)決定性的時(shí)刻。如果沒有迅速做出調(diào)整,,它們就有可能會(huì)淪為這場完美風(fēng)暴的犧牲品,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

凱西·格拉姆林是安永美國(EY Americas)消費(fèi)行業(yè)市場的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者。作者表達(dá)的觀點(diǎn)不一定是安永會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所(Ernst & Young LLP)或全球安永組織其他成員的觀點(diǎn),。

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

我們在全球疫情最為嚴(yán)重的時(shí)候邁入了2021年,,這場疫情導(dǎo)致了勞工短缺和供應(yīng)鏈問題以及數(shù)十年以來的最高通脹率。2021年在一場完美風(fēng)暴中畫上了句號(hào),,消費(fèi)者徹底改變了他們對購物方式的認(rèn)知,,而且是永久性的。

安永(EY)最近的未來消費(fèi)指數(shù)(Future Consumer Index)顯示,,超過半數(shù)的美國民眾認(rèn)為,,在新冠疫情期間所養(yǎng)成的行為習(xí)慣如今已經(jīng)常態(tài)化,而且49%的民眾認(rèn)為其生活在后疫情時(shí)代依然會(huì)與以往存在巨大的差異,。

早在新冠疫情出現(xiàn)之前,,就有傳聞稱消費(fèi)產(chǎn)品和零售行業(yè)已經(jīng)變得十分脆弱。新冠疫情及其變種只是加速了這些問題,,并助長其發(fā)展成為避無可避的態(tài)勢,。我們無需去問“它何時(shí)才能結(jié)束?”,而是應(yīng)該意識(shí)到這場完美風(fēng)暴難以在近期結(jié)束,,同時(shí)消費(fèi)者已經(jīng)重新調(diào)整了對零售商和品牌的期許,。

大辭職潮重創(chuàng)零售業(yè),而且其影響遠(yuǎn)未結(jié)束

2021年9月,,創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的68.5萬名零售商關(guān)門大吉,。同一月,440萬美國民眾辭去了工作,。除了面對大辭職潮(Great Resignation)之外,,零售行業(yè)將不得不應(yīng)對規(guī)模日漸萎縮、關(guān)注點(diǎn)不斷變化的勞動(dòng)力資源,。

雇員,,尤其是Z世代,不再愿意為那些沒有明確目的,,以及無法滿足其不斷變化的公平薪酬和靈活性需求的公司工作,。最近安永的Z世代市場細(xì)分調(diào)查的發(fā)現(xiàn)甚至更能夠代表未來的趨勢,近三分之二的Z世代受調(diào)對象認(rèn)為,,自己所效力的雇主應(yīng)該與其有共同的價(jià)值,。

在這個(gè)工作條件并非普通的朝九晚五的行業(yè),這一現(xiàn)象更是如此,,而且可能更具挑戰(zhàn)性,。2022年,零售商將需要重新定義其人才計(jì)劃,,以及股東和雇主價(jià)值的意義,。對零售商來說,勞動(dòng)力是品牌體驗(yàn)的前沿陣地,。當(dāng)勞動(dòng)力不存在或缺乏專注度時(shí),,服務(wù)品質(zhì)和消費(fèi)體驗(yàn)就會(huì)出現(xiàn)問題。

盡管通脹當(dāng)頭,,但消費(fèi)者愿意花錢

我們看到,,通脹率創(chuàng)下了39年來的新高。然而,,消費(fèi)者依然愿意(而且希望)在生活成本增長的情況下去花錢,其原因可能并非是薪資的不斷上漲,,而是不斷限制消費(fèi)者購買所需商品能力的供應(yīng)鏈并發(fā)癥,。消費(fèi)者有錢去肆意揮霍,而且也愿意購買可以買到的商品,,哪怕是為此支付溢價(jià),。

盡管消費(fèi)者在當(dāng)前愿意購買價(jià)格更高的物品,但這一意愿能夠維持多長的時(shí)間?轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)在哪,?不斷變化的利率和市場環(huán)境,,以及病毒新變種持續(xù)的影響和持續(xù)的地緣政治不穩(wěn)定性,將決定消費(fèi)者對高價(jià)格的耐受時(shí)長,。

從長遠(yuǎn)來看,,消費(fèi)者依然十分看重價(jià)格的重要性:我們的美國未來消費(fèi)指數(shù)(U.S. Future Consumer Index)顯示,58%的民眾在未來將更加關(guān)注“物有所值”的理念,。因此,,一旦供應(yīng)鏈恢復(fù)如初,受抑需求成為過去時(shí),,品牌和零售商或?qū)⒅匦抡{(diào)整,,以應(yīng)對價(jià)格帶來的服務(wù)和品質(zhì)新要求。

從“最后一公里”到“開始一公里”

多年來,,各大公司尤為關(guān)注于最后一公里的交付,,各大零售商和品牌都將這一流程作為重點(diǎn),以支持向線上模式或BOPIS(在線購買,,在店面取貨)送貨模式的轉(zhuǎn)變,。然而,他們并未意識(shí)到,,價(jià)值的創(chuàng)造卻始于最初的一公里,。

在新冠疫情沖擊前便已經(jīng)存在于零售行業(yè)的脆弱和短缺問題如今已經(jīng)暴露無遺。生產(chǎn)繼續(xù)受到原材料短缺的威脅,。船只無法在港口卸貨,。卡車運(yùn)力余量所剩無幾,。從很多方面來看,,所有的這一切對供應(yīng)鏈來說都是一場災(zāi)難。

在今后的一年中,,零售商和品牌將不得不改變其關(guān)注點(diǎn),,確保將數(shù)據(jù)和流程用于支持原材料采購和物流。最初的一公里需要根據(jù)“消費(fèi)者至上”原則進(jìn)行重新定義,。

隨著道德采購以及可持續(xù)性繼續(xù)深入人心,,這一點(diǎn)將變得越來越重要。消費(fèi)者對可持續(xù)性的看法發(fā)生了改變,,而且零售商和消費(fèi)品公司也有必要對其期許做出相應(yīng)的調(diào)整,。我們的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,三分之一的美國消費(fèi)者強(qiáng)烈地感到,,各大公司應(yīng)該專注于產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)的負(fù)責(zé)任生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi),。這一趨勢強(qiáng)化了妥善處理好最初一公里的重要性,。

重大調(diào)整

新冠疫情前的傳言如今變得甚囂塵上。其意料之外的影響幾乎迫使各大零售商和品牌進(jìn)行重大調(diào)整,,不僅僅是迎合消費(fèi)者看法的短期調(diào)整,,同時(shí)還有長期的根本性轉(zhuǎn)變。

行業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者需要圍繞人才計(jì)劃的重構(gòu),,以納入機(jī)器人和自動(dòng)化為目標(biāo)的供應(yīng)鏈重設(shè),,以及環(huán)境、社會(huì)和公司治理(ESG)價(jià)值的捕捉,,做出重大決策,。對零售商和品牌來說,這是一個(gè)決定性的時(shí)刻,。如果沒有迅速做出調(diào)整,,它們就有可能會(huì)淪為這場完美風(fēng)暴的犧牲品。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

凱西·格拉姆林是安永美國(EY Americas)消費(fèi)行業(yè)市場的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者,。作者表達(dá)的觀點(diǎn)不一定是安永會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所(Ernst & Young LLP)或全球安永組織其他成員的觀點(diǎn),。

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

We started 2021 in the thick of a global pandemic, leading us into labor shortages, supply chain issues, and the highest inflation numbers in decades. The year ended with the perfect storm, where consumers fundamentally changed the way they think about shopping, forever.

More than half of Americans agree that behaviors adopted during the pandemic now feel normal and 49% believe their life will remain significantly changed in a post-pandemic world, according to data from EY’s recent Future Consumer Index.

There were rumblings of fragility in consumer products and retail well before the pandemic. COVID-19 and its variants only accelerated these issues and brought them to an unavoidable head. Rather than ask “when will this be over?”, we need to understand this perfect storm has no end in sight. Instead, consumers have reset expectations for retailers and brands.

The Great Resignation hit retail hard–and it’s far from over

In September 2021, a record 685,000 retailers called it quits. In the same month, 4.4 million Americans quit their jobs. In addition to facing the Great Resignation, the retail industry is having to contend with a shrinking pool of labor with shifting priorities.

Employees–particularly Gen Z–are no longer willing to work for companies that are not purpose-led and that are not able to meet their evolving demands for fair pay and flexibility. Perhaps even more indicative of the future, in the most recent EY Gen Z Segmentation Study, nearly two-thirds of Gen Z respondents feel it’s important to work for an employer that shares their values.

This is especially true, and perhaps more challenging, in an industry where the working conditions are not that of your typical nine-to-five office. In 2022, retailers will need to redefine the talent agenda and what it means for shareholder and employee value. For retailers, the workforce is the front line of the brand experience. When a labor force either doesn’t exist or is not engaged, quality of service and the consumer experience are called into question.

Consumers are willing to spend despite inflation–for now

We’re seeing the highest inflation numbers in 39 years. Yet, for the first time in history, consumers are still willing (and wanting) to spend money despite the increase in the cost of living. We can attribute this not to rising wages but to supply chain complications that are limiting consumers’ ability to purchase what they want. Consumers have money burning a hole in their pockets and are willing to take what’s available, even at a premium.

While consumers are willing to take on higher price points for now, how long will it last? What’s the tipping point? Changing interest rates and market conditions, as well as ongoing complications from new variants and continued geopolitical instability, will drive how long consumers are willing to put up with higher prices.

In the long run, consumers will continue to put a premium on the importance of price: 58% will be more focused on value for money in the future according to our U.S. Future Consumer Index. So, when the supply chain opens back up and pent-up demand has passed, expect a reset for brands and retailers on the new requirements for service and quality in relation to price.

From “l(fā)ast-mile” to “first-mile”

For years, companies had been hyper-focused on last-mile delivery, with retailers and brands prioritizing the processes to support the shift to online or BOPIS (buy online, pick up in store) delivery. What they failed to realize was that the first mile is where value is established.

The fragility and scarcity that underpinned retail before the pandemic hit is now abundantly clear. Raw material shortages continue to threaten production. Ships are stuck in ports. Free truck capacity is hard to come by. At various points, this all spelled disaster for the supply chain.

In the year ahead, retailers and brands will have to shift priorities to secure both the data and processes around the procurement of raw materials and logistics. The first mile needs to be redefined with consumers at the center.

This will become increasingly important as the expectation of ethical sourcing and sustainability continues to gain momentum. Consumer sentiment around sustainability has changed, and expectations of retailers and consumer products companies will need to change with it. Our data reveals one in three U.S. consumers feel strongly that companies should be focused on responsible production and consumption of goods and services. This trend reinforces the importance of getting the first mile right.

A great reset

The pre-pandemic rumblings are now at a crescendo. Their unintended consequences have all but forced a great reset for retailers and brands–not a short-term adjustment to consumer sentiment but a long-term, fundamental change.

Critical decisions on reimagining the talent agenda, resetting the supply chain to include robotics and automation, and capturing the value of ESG lie ahead of industry leaders. It’s a defining moment for retailers and brands. If they don’t shift quickly, they risk being left in the wreckage of this perfect storm.

Kathy Gramling is EY Americas' consumer industry markets leader. The views expressed by the author are not necessarily those of Ernst & Young LLP or other members of the global EY organization.

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